MAP: "Voters in sixteen states may decide the presidency"

[Skinner]

Acting on a tip from WesDem, I found this map on the Internet this morning. This is how the National Committe for an Effective Congress sees the presidential race this year.

The source is a PDF on the NCEC website:

http://www.ncec.org/publications/newsletter/january_february_2004_newsletter.pdf

I thought you all might be interested to see this. It's got all the Electoral votes for each state, too, so you can do the math yourself. Looks like it's going to be close this year...

[MAlibdem]

1. I'll be in NH starting in mid to late september...

Doin wot I can

[Timbuk3]

2. Interactive map

John Edwards still has this interactive electoral map up on his site.

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

It's interesting to see what happens under various scenarios.

BTW, I don't think that NH is in play. Voter turnout for the primary was too strong.

NV is mad as hell about Yucca Mountain, and isn't likely to go Bush.

LA has gone Democrat in every election since 2000, even though Bush and his band of thugs campaigned for the Democrat's opponents every time, so LA isn't a Bush lock, it's a "battleground state".

I always come back to the same thing, though. This election is far too important to relax, ever. Until the failed leader is removed from the White House, we need every vote we can get.

(BTW, I have the actual vote counts by state from 2000 if anyone is interested.)

[Political_Junkie]

3. I'd be interested in the vote counts for Maine, Timbuk.

thanks

[dontstopthere]

14. if LA is a battleground then that means

that all of MIMAL is available to either party. If anyone wins MIMAL its all over...

[Hippo_Tron]

17. LA is blue but will lean Bush...

The democrats here are "conservative democrats", many DINOs by national standards. Basically, Republicans have no control over the state government but our state still has a fairly bad economy, a poor education system, etc.

[billhos]

4. there's always surprises

How many people thought New Hmapshire, Nevada, Florida and West Virginia would be in play as they were last time. you always have too watch out for possibilities and problems. Last time Gore won New Jersey by a landslide. But, a recent poll showed Bush winning it in a three way race. I am not saying don't watch these states, but you have too keep your eye out on others as well.

[fujiyama]

19. New Jersey

isn't in play. That poll was nonsense. A state doesn't swing 15 points in one election, that too, when a senator from a nearby state is running. Of course, turnout is key. GOTV is extremely important.

[TN al]

5. Rats...

...I thought I lived in a battleground state.

[onehandle]

6. Ohio is going to be the game this time.

I hope to be there on the ground.

[LoZoccolo]

7. Illinois

Even though Illinois is a blue state (I've heard from somewhere else that it's pretty close though), it is surrounded by a lot of grey ones; don't forget there are opportunities to get involved in these bordering states for a weekend or whatever if you live in Illinois.

[fujiyama]

20. Illinois

gave Gore one of his largest margins of victory.

Bush won't be carrying either NJ or IL unless he's winning in a landslide...and he won't be winning in a landslide this fall. Of course, turnout is key, so dems can't get lazy...

[Submariner]

8. What happened to Oregon?

When I went back to school in the early '70s Oregon was, if I recall correctly, a liberal bastion. First on protecting the environment, first with the bottle bill (I think), and other progressive positions. I'm surprised it's a battleground state and not solidly in our camp.

Any Oregonians here know what's up?

[Skinner]

9. I worked on a campaign there in 1995.

The eastern part of the state is very conservative. Once you leave Portland and Eugene, it's a sea of red.

Here's the 2000 presidential vote by county for the entire country. Check out Oregon...

[Submariner]

13. Oregon and Massachusetts

were big deal states for environmental protection during the first Earth Day in 1970, and I guess that stuck in my mind. I guess the McGovern loss there in '72 should've woken me up. Thanks for the educating graphic. We have work to do.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

18. That map is really interesting..NM & NV?

Looks like there is a potential pick up in Nevada as the Democratic county is also the most populous county. And it looks like the Dems have alot of support (at least based on geography) in New Mexico.

[West Coast Democrat]

28. But the red (bush*) Oregon counties are minimally populated........

as are the majority of Bush* counties throughout the nation. Why does this map care so much about square mileage?

[Eurobabe]

10. we may have to move

seriously looking at OH, (hubby looking at IT jobs there) might as well make it count for November! VA going Bu$h anyhow...

[JohnLocke]

11. We might win NC is VP is Edwards; LA if VP Landrieu.

[citizen snips]

12. I agree.

We can win some of the south if we will not ignore it.

[Hippo_Tron]

16. Landrieu won't do shit in LA...

She won re-election because of the small democratic majority and because her opponent was terrible.

[mzmolly]

15. Im in MN and prepared to help oust *

:hi:

[gemlake]

21. Missouri

Kerry definitely has a shot here, but it will be difficult, given the conservative rural areas. Ashcroft will help Kerry win more votes than Gephardt as VP would. Remember--Missourians picked a dead man over Ashcroft!

[salonghorn70]

23. Edwards in Missouri

Would Edwards be of any help in the rural areas? In Missouri would you rather have Edwards or Gephardt? Would any other Democrat help in Missouri?

[gemlake]

24. Personally, I'd rather have Edwards

Edwards brings a lot of energy to the Kerry campaign, but I don't think he'll change the mind of any rural voters in Missouri. Getting out the vote in the urban areas will be important for Kerry.

[CabalBuster]

22. Kerry just lost the Muslim/Arab vote and will regret it in November

See this recent Zogby poll that says Nader gets 20% of the Arab American vote in four key states (and if you read the details (pdf), it's 26% in Pa and Mich. More of the votes come from Kerry than Bush, which could end up tipping a close state.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7858

[dae]

25. Louisiana is definitely in play for Kerry and he has already spent time

here campaigning. Governor Blanco endorsed him early and Senators Breaux and Landrieu have endorsed and campaigned with him as well. The same players that lined up against the Bush/Rove machine to re-elect Sen. Landrieu are lining up just as solidly behind Sen. Kerry.
:dem:

[amazona]

29. I agree with you, this map may be off

Louisiana is definitely in play, how do they assume it is going to go for Bush? Bush has done nothing but stab us in the back, prime exhibit A was stabbing us in the back for our Bicentennial of the Louisiana Purchase last year. He also refused to declare one of our serious storm emergencies in 2003 a federal emergency while in years gone by, less serious storms were declared federal emergencies as a matter of course. And the whole "let's hate the French" thing is not good for us, a lot of our Acadiana tourism comes from France. The more trouble Bush stirs up, the more he picks our pockets. I don't think we need to assume that everyone in Louisiana is too stupid to notice this.

[democratreformed]

26. Ron Oliver, the Chairman of our state's Democratic party talked

about this Saturday night at our county's fundraiser. I was excited to hear that the Kerry campaign will be visiting our state. Also, Bill Richardson will be the speaker at the state party's J-J Day dinner on May 1.

[CWebster]

27. Being from PA- our vote doesn't mean zip in the primaries

Unfortunately, the states that were railroaded into chosing the "most electible" in the primaries should've left those of us in the battleground states something worth fighting for, instead of fighting against, in the General.

Is Kerry really the best we can do and the only alternativeto Bush? This country is... pathetic.