SD speical election results thread

[NewJerseyDem]

http://www.sdsos.gov/results/statwide.shtml

1 or 738 precincts reporting:
Larry Diedrich (R)-----66%
Stephanie Herseth (D)--34%

[Lefty Pragmatist]

1. Yikes

That freaked me out. At first I read it as "66 pct of precincts reporting" and I thought "SD really is small..."

[goobergunch]

2. One small precinct in Lake County

Nothing to worry about yet.

[cjbuchanan]

3. Kerry getting 87%

Larouche and Kucinich tied for a close second with 5% each.

[goobergunch]

4. 6 of 798 precincts reporting

Diedrich leads 56%-44%

[Lefty Pragmatist]

5. 6/798 in

   U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY            953       56            6           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE        745       44            6           798

[cjbuchanan]

6. 6 precincts in

And it's
Diedrich - 56%
Herseth - 44%

By the way, Dean is now in second with 6% of the vote.

[freetobegay]

7. Another nail biting nite!

[PfNJ]

8. 20 precincts reporting.....

Herseth now in lead.....

[NewJerseyDem]

9. 20 of 738

Diedrich 48%
Herseth 52%

[goobergunch]

10. Herseth takes the lead with 20/798 reporting!

52%-48%

[Lefty Pragmatist]

11. 20/798, Herseth takes the lead

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY           2711       48           20           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE       2939       52           20           798

[papau]

12. Herseth still leads 54%

R) DIEDRICH LARRY 4825 46 40 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 5604 54 40 798

[PfNJ]

13. She's now up 8%.....

40 precincts reporting.....

[NewJerseyDem]

14. 40 of 798

Herseth: 54%
Diedrich: 46%

[Lefty Pragmatist]

15. 40/798

  U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY           4825       46           40           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE       5604       54           40           798

[papau]

16. Herseth still leads 56% with 71 reporting

R) DIEDRICH LARRY 8801 44 71 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 11077 56 71 798

[NewJerseyDem]

17. 71 of 798

Herseth: 56%
Diedrich: 44%

[cjbuchanan]

18. 56-44 with 71 precincts in

She is up by 12!

[freetobegay]

20. After she wins when will she have to run again?

[goobergunch]

21. Yes

but only one representative has lost a general election after winning an off-year election for the seat since 1996.

[papau]

19. Herseth still leads 56% with 83 reporting of 798

R) DIEDRICH LARRY 10394 44 83 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 13051 56 83 798

[papau]

22. Herseth still leads 55% with 106 reporting of 798

R) DIEDRICH LARRY 12192 45 106 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 14749 55 106 798

[papau]

24. Now Herseth still leads 54% with 120 reporting of 798

(R) DIEDRICH LARRY 14187 46 120 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 16474 54 120 798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

23. 106/798

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          12192       45          106           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      14749       55          106           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

25. 120/798

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          14187       46          120           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      16474       54          120           798

[MoonRiver]

26. It will be very interesting to see what the Repub districts do.

Everything I'm hearing in my rightwing state and neighborhood is less than enthusiastic about *, to put it mildly.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

27. Do we know

which district have reported and which are pending? Would a SD native give us a brief primer?

[MoonRiver]

31. On another thread,

somebody said he/she lived there. I'll reply and ask him/her to come on over here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x540346

[Lefty Pragmatist]

32. Thanks.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

28. 131/798

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          15457       47          131           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      17666       53          131           798

[papau]

30. This is getting to be a nervous night!

:-)

[papau]

29. Now Herseth still leads 53% with 131 reporting of 798

(R) DIEDRICH LARRY 15457 47 131 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 17666 53 131 798

[papau]

33. Now Herseth still leads 53% with 156 reporting of 798

(R) DIEDRICH LARRY 18452 47 156 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 21112 53 156 798

[papau]

37. Herseth still leads 53% with 167 reporting of 798

(R) DIEDRICH LARRY 19917 47 167 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 22326 53 167 798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

34. 156/798, 19% of precincts

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          18452       47          156           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      21112       53          156           798

[c0lin]

35. basically..

the Northeastern part of the state usually gets results in first, followed the the rest of the East-river precincts. The sad part is that West-river are the last ones to get in, and that's also the part of the state that has a huge repub majority.

It's also where I live, sadly.

[MoonRiver]

36. What are your predictions about tonight?

:scared:

[papau]

39. Final poll was 52 to 48 Dem win - but who knows?

:-)

[c0lin]

40. Well..

I'd like to say that she will win it, but it will be close--so that means we'll have to go through this again.

Regardless, I'm already happy that Janklow is gone, so if Stephanie wins then it would just be that much better :)

[Lefty Pragmatist]

38. Is the west-river rural

and less populated (hope, hope)?

[c0lin]

42. haha, oh yeah..

Rapid City is the only thing you really have to worry about..

My town is about 12,000--I'd say of which 65% are repub I think it's also the second largest town west-river, although I'm not positive about that anymore.

The only good thing about west-river is that there is a larger native-american population (which always vote dem)

[MoonRiver]

45. Does SD have BBVs?

[Lefty Pragmatist]

41. 21% (167)

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          19917       47          167           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      22326       53          167           798

[cjbuchanan]

44. same percentage

with 203 precincts in

[papau]

43. Herseth still leads 53% with 203 reporting of 798

R) DIEDRICH LARRY 26908 47 203 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 30497 53 203 798


Ok - time for bed -

I wish us good luck!

:-)

[cjbuchanan]

46. Good thing to remember from Daily Kos

Posted a dkos
-----
Don't overreact if Diedrich takes the lead

Johnson didn't win in 2002 until Shannon and Todd counties reported. So it looks good still.

by jiacinto

-------------

Excellent point.

The pundits overlooked this last year, too, writing off Sen. Johnson before Shannon County reported.  It voted 91% for Johnson, propelling him to his 512-vote win.

by mgmonklewis

------
Just in case the numbers change

[Lefty Pragmatist]

47. 27%, +4,132

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          27749       47          212           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      31881       53          212           798

[c0lin]

50. SD DNC Chair just predicted..

..stephanie to win by 5-8% ;)

[Frodo]

78. That play into their hands a little bit.

The fall election campaign has already begun and it hardly matters who wins today.

But the Republican has been saying he just needs/hopes to "come close" in his expected loss, now our guy set the bar nice and low for him. Anything less than 5% looks like he outperformed expectations and sets him up for November.

Since right now it looks like a 2 point race - he should have just stuck to the mantra "it's going to be close". Then an 8% win looks like a blowout.

On edit - I take it back. Looks like the 11pm numbers may be as close as it gets.

[jsw_81]

48. Herseth leads 53-47 with 26 percent in

[cjbuchanan]

49. 48-52

U S HOUSE
(R) DIEDRICH LARRY 32276 48 242 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 35518 52 242 798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

51. 30%, +3242

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          32276       48          242           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      35518       52          242           798

[Wickerman]

52. ruh-ror

making it interesting.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

53. 35%, +3419

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          35416       48          279           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      38835       52          279           798

[cjbuchanan]

54. Still 48-52 with 281 pres reporting

[Lefty Pragmatist]

55. 38%, +4468

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          37578       47          304           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      42046       53          304           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

56. 40%, +3575

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          40627       48          323           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      44202       52          323           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

57. 43%, +3592

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          42670       48          343           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      46262       52          343           798

[liskddksil]

58. Why is the whole state voting if its just for a house seat?

[c0lin]

59. Primaries

[MoonRiver]

60. I think they only have one representative.

Calling cOlin! Is that correct?

[Frodo]

62. Correct.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

63. Correct.

[KamaAina]

64. Because Janklow (R-Vehicular Manslaughter) resigned

This is a special election to fill his seat.

The irony is that Herseth ran against "Killer Bill" in Nov. '02. They could have just done the right thing back then...

[liskddksil]

68. Thanks

I did not know that S.D and N.D only had 1 representative each.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

61. 45%, +3504

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          45518       48          363           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      49022       52          363           798

[MoonRiver]

66. I'm starting to get real optimistic here!

I've even pinched myself! :D

[Lefty Pragmatist]

65. 50.3%, +3509

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          54314       48          402           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      57823       52          402           798

[Frodo]

67. That's almost down to 51/49! This is a nail biter.

Any word on WHICH districts have been reporting?

[cjbuchanan]

69. Here are county by county results

http://www.sdsos.gov/results/allraces.shtml

[Lefty Pragmatist]

70. 52%, +3739

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          55261       48          415           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      59000       52          415           798

[never cry wolf]

71. Anyone know what type of voting machines SD uses?

It seems as if the Dem lead has been whittled a bit and it is still too close for my comfort, stealable in other words. Are we safe in that respect?

[Frodo]

75. Mostly optical scan ballots

in 2003 there were a few punchcard and paper ballot districts.

I haven't seen any BBV reports... which doesn't mean it CAN'T be stolen.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

72. 51.8% (it went down, weird), +3851

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          56095       48          414           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      59946       52          414           798

[MoonRiver]

73. Does that mean they've called it for Herseth? eom

[Lefty Pragmatist]

74. 56%, +4108

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          62338       48          444           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      66446       52          444           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

76. 60%, +3269

    U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          67344       49          476           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      70613       51          476           798

[Radical Activist]

77. Where would this put the balance in the House?

Dems just won a special election in KY too. People say the House is out of play because there are too few competitive races. But, If Dems win the second special election in a row like this, you have to think it's possible. How many seats are we behind if this is gain #2 this year?

[Lefty Pragmatist]

79. -21

The current House breakdown is 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats and 1 independent. June 2nd, after a Herseth win, with a 228-207 tally outstanding, the Dems will need to takeaway 11 Republican seats in the General to take the majority

[DaveSZ]

85. Check this out::

http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,5860,1112284,00.html


Click on the individual states to see the breakdown in the House, and also add Ben Chandler (and Herseth if she wins).

[cjbuchanan]

80. What's up in the long pause

of them updating their website.

They have been doing it every 5 minutes, but it has been over 10 minutes since the last update.

[Frodo]

81. I think we won this one.

I've been nervous that it seems to be closing and someone had said the R districts report last.

I dodged over to FR and they've got two guys who know the previous (Thune/Johnson) results pretty well. They're pretty convinced they lost this one.

[NewJerseyDem]

83. It'll be close

Shannon and Todd counties are overwhelmingly democratic and they have yet to report. So, that gives Herseh a few thousand extra votes. Yet, much of Pennington county still has to come in and that will help Diedrich out a lot if it stays as republican as it did in 2002.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

82. 71%, +4457

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          83405       49          564           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      87862       51          564           798

[ISUGRADIA]

86. 579 0f 798

U S HOUSE
(R)
DIEDRICH 84787

(D)
HERSETH 89386

Shannon and Todd Counties which went for Herseth 77% and 92% in 2002 are still out, smaller counties but may be key.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

84. 73%, +4599

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          84787       49          579           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      89386       51          579           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

87. 74%, +4272

    U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          87401       49          588           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      91673       51          588           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

88. 76%, +4868

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          92253       49          604           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      97121       51          604           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

89. 77%, +4098

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          94465       49          618           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE      98563       51          618           798

[ISUGRADIA]

90. Some Quick Math

When I looked at the counties that had 0 precincts reporting and did quick math of the results, Herseth led Janklow by about 2550 in those 5 counties in 2002. These counties account for 57 of the precincts still out.

This and the 5000 vote or so lead now should bode well for Herseth.

[dweller]

92. 3563 lead now

w/ 633 of 798 precincts reporting @ 11:35 eastern.

dp

[Lefty Pragmatist]

91. 79%, +3563

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          96780       49          633           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     100343       51          633           798

[c0lin]

94. I'm getting nervous

[Vis Numar]

96. Don't get nervous, it's over

Herseth is going to win, the math has been done already:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/6/1/212654/5952

[ButterflyBlood]

98. don't worry

no votes from Shannon or Todd in yet, and they should give her around a 2000 vote boost.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

93. 82%, +4301

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY          99109       49          656           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     103410       51          656           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

95. 84%, +3671

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         101443       49          671           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     105114       51          671           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

97. 86%, +3847

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         106733       49          688           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     110580       51          688           798

[ButterflyBlood]

99. She could win by over 5000 votes

since Shannon and Todd haven't reported yet.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

100. What is the recount

automatic kick-in?

[ButterflyBlood]

104. There is none

There is only one if the losing candidate requests one. Thune didn't in 2002 because he didn't want to look like a sore loser and hurt his future chances. I doubt Diedrich will since it'll hurt the GOP even more in this case.

[Tansy_Gold]

101. What kind of voter turn-out does this represent?

Seems like this was a hotly contested race, so turn-out should have been high. Was it?

[Simeon Salus]

103. State population just under 800,000

That means voting age citizens around 570,000 or so.

So how many will vote? 250,000?

On edit: (less judgemental subject line and) So this projects about 40%-45% of voting age voters. Much higher percentage of registered voters. 70%?

I'm so happy Steph pulled it out. Yee Haw. Youth, energy, and redemption after a previous loss at this seat.

[ISUGRADIA]

111. SOS Office has voter reg for the state at 518,000 or so

44% of registered voters turning out by current numbers

[Lefty Pragmatist]

102. 87%, +4057

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         107643       49          691           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     111700       51          691           798

[ButterflyBlood]

106. and Shannon and Todd have still yet to come in

tough to see how Diedrich could win now.

[ISUGRADIA]

107. 0 precincts in from strong Herseth Counties Shannon and Todd

which went for her with 77% and 92% in 2002.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

105. 87%, +4005

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         107826       49          693           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     111831       51          693           798

[mgarretson]

108. The Big Mo, who has it?

Hey folks, I'm watching the SD returns with the rest of you and I hope Herseth opens this race up like you folks are talking about, but if she only wins by the current 2%, who legitimately has the momentum? Does it go to her because she won, or Dietrich because he made it so close when Herseth led earlier in the race by quite a bit?

[John_H]

110. uhhhh... i'd say whoever wins has the "big mo," Dude.

espececially if it's in a state where there are more teeth-dropping freepers than Dems, generally speaking.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

109. 88%, +3988

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         108842       49          700           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     112830       51          700           798

[mgarretson]

113. stil 51, 49 Herseth

U S HOUSE
(R) DIEDRICH LARRY 109141 49 703 798
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE 113175 51 703 798

Has the media called the race yet or are they waiting for the fat lady to sing?

[Lefty Pragmatist]

112. 88%, +4034

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         109141       49          703           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     113175       51          703           798

[John_H]

114. it'sa done says

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/6/1/212654/5952

[DaveSZ]

115. Ok then!

11 more seats to go!

We can do it if we work hard enough!

We can take all 3 branches back!

:toast:

Congrats Steph, but please don't vote for that anti-gay constitutional amendment.

:(

-Edit

Maybe we shouldn't count our chickens before they hatch!

:)

[Lefty Pragmatist]

116. 89%, +3437

    U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         111380       49          712           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     114817       51          712           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

117. 91%, +3097

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         112690       49          725           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     115787       51          725           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

118. 92%, +3236

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         113533       49          733           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     116769       51          733           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

119. 94%, +2699

     U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         115762       49          753           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     118461       51          753           798

[jsw_81]

120. It's all over

Three cheers for South Dakota! Not only have they elected a rising star to Congress, but they are now one of the few states with a completely Democratic delegation!

[democracyindanger]

121. WOOHOO! nt

[Lefty Pragmatist]

122. 96%, +2948

   U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         121066       49          765           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     124014       51          765           798

[Kathleen04]

123. Yeah!

Way to go, Stephanie!! :party:

[Lefty Pragmatist]

124. 96%, +2946

 U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         121249       49          767           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     124195       51          767           798

[Lefty Pragmatist]

125. 97%, +3939

    U S HOUSE
   (R) DIEDRICH       LARRY         121336       49          772           798
   (D) HERSETH        STEPHANIE     125275       51          772           798

[no name no slogan]

126. This one looks like ours!!!

Unfortunately I don't know how much closer that brings the margin in the House. I believe it's down to 11 seats now (i.e., 11 more Dem wins in Noveber, plus this seat, and we have the majority!).

[jsw_81]

127. 99 percent counted

Herseth leads 51-49