TPM - advice to Kerry: forget chumminess, choose Edwards

[chimpymustgo]

(June 23, 2004 -- 01:40 PM EDT // link // print)

-snip-

Kerry sources say the choice is narrowing to Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack and former House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt, and that the candidate remains personally uncomfortable with Sen. John Edwards." I have no idea whether this report is accurate, but if it is, the Democrats are in trouble.

There are different criteria Kerry and the Democratic convention delegates should use in choosing a running mate, but they should not include whether the candidate is "personally comfortable" with whomever he chooses. If John F. Kennedy had used this criterion in 1960, Richard Nixon would have won the election. If Ronald Reagan had used it in 1980 and chosen his friend Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt rather than his leading challenger George Bush, Reagan might have lost that election. Gore did use this criterion in 2000, and it's one reason why he lost. In the final tally, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman didn't bring Gore a single electoral college vote. Kerry has to choose a running mate who, above all, will help him win states in the Midwest and South that he may not be able to win on his own.


Among those prospects currently being discussed, there are only two who are sufficiently battle-tested and who could help Kerry where he may not be able to help himself. These are Edwards and Gephardt. In the primary, Edwards showed a Clintonesque ability to appeal to both of the constituencies with whom Kerry is going to have trouble--the white working class voters who used to be described as "Reagan Democrats" and the independent upscale suburbanites who have been trending Democratic, but are leery of the party's leftwing. Edwards could help Kerry be competitive in Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Ohio. (In a Mason-Dixon poll last month pairing Bush and Cheney against Kerry and Edwards in North Carolina, Bush was only ahead by 46 to 45 percent.) He could force the Bush campaign to expend resources in regions it would have liked to take for granted. Gephardt might help Kerry with white working class voters in Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio. But Gephardt's appeal may be more limited than Edwards'. Gephardt is very popular among labor leaders, but, as this year's primary made clear, not necessarily among the rank and file or among non-union workers. He would also reinforce Kerry's image as a Washington insider, making him less attractive to upscale suburbanites.


There is another reason to hope that Kerry puts aside his "comfort level" and picks Edwards. In 2004, 19 Democratic Senate seats are being contested, compared to only 15 Republican ones; and five of the nineteen are in Southern states where Democrats are retiring.

-snip-

******
More astute analysis at:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_06_20.php#003092

[deminflorida]

1. Advise to Kerry...forget your Party and sake of the Nation....

do what the right-wing media and Ralph Nader says....

Choose the Personal-Injury Lawyer.

[AP]

4. Suggesting that John Edwards is a threat to the nation and enemy of the...

...party is insane.

[Skwmom]

10. Suggesting that Edwards, a guy that has spent the

majority of his life being a personal injury attorney (and the majority of his time as a first term senator promoting himself rather than doing the job he was elected to do), is qualified to be a heart beat away from becoming the leader of the U.S., the commander-in-chief is insane and absurd!

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[chimpymustgo]

12. OMG! AP, once again you have NAILED it.

There are a handful of Linda Tripps here! Thanks for helping define the phenomenon.

[AP]

13. For those who don't remember, Tripp said that she didn't like Clinton

because she didn't think he was qualified to be president. She didn't think a guy who grew up in the south to a mother who had to work for a living and had to work hard himself to get what he got deserved to be president.

She thought that only GHWB's blood was blue enough to be president.

[Skwmom]

17. Clinton is a man of substance.

The personal injury attorney reminds me of Bush (both lightweights). Do you really think this type of phony populist crap is going to work?

How has Edwards work hard to become president? The guy is a shameless, self-promoting huskster.

[AP]

24. People clearly like Edwards and responded to him and what he stands for.

So, yeah, I think it "works".

And it's rich of you to be throwing around the word "shameless."

Your hatred of Edwards is almost pathological, and it's very anti-democratic.

[Mike L]

42. Edwards would be an awesome choice.

Many Independents love him. The "trial lawyer" thing is a red herring. Edwards beat that stereotype in NC, a conservative state. He pointed to his battles against big corporations-- he stands up for the little guy.

He connects with middle-America swing voters. Kerry may be "personally uncomfortable" with Edwards because Edwards is more "likable" than him, but he should get over it. "Likability" is what we need on the ticket. But I am afraid that Kerry's ego may get in the way. He probably doesn't want his VP upstaging him.

Besides, I would love to see Edwards cut Cheney another orifice.

[Skwmom]

16. Hmmm

In business I've always found when your opponent resorts to personal attacks, you have really hit on the truth/hit a nerve. Obviously the same in true in the political world.

Hint: personal attacks won't deter me from speaking out.

[AP]

18. Then I guess you lost to Edwards a long time ago. Personal attacks

seem to be all you have against him.

[efront]

28. Ding. Ding. Ding.

Clarkies. lol.

[Scoopie]

33. Clark didn't loose to Edwards

In fact, he beat him in five of the nine states they mutually competed in.
Clark simply didn't stay in as long.

[AP]

39. Cl. beat E. by something like 50K in 5 states. Ed beat C by 300k in just 1

before Clark dropped out.

Edwards Beat him in everywhere else they both competed by 2.7 million votes.

Only in AZ did Clark beat him by more than 20K votes, and some of those 5 were just by a couple 100 votes.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AP]

19. Americans don't hate success. In fact they like it when people are ...

...rewarded for their labors in proportion to the effort they make and the good they do.

If you don't think that holding negligent corporations accountable for the damage they do to innocent individuals is valuable to society...well, that explains a lot.

By the way, nice personal attack there. Usually when a DU poster has to retort to "I laugh at you with my friends" I think they've totally run out of ammunition.

[Skwmom]

21. How can you possibly infer this statement from what I've posted.

"If you don't think that holding negligent corporations accountable for the damage they do to innocent individuals is valuable to society...well, that explains a lot."

In regards to the response to your spin on Edwards being one of laughter (it's the simple truth). Again, being compared to Tripp just shows me that I've hit on the truth.

[AP]

23. What is it that you don't like about his work as a lawyer, then?

And it sounds like I've struck a nerve with the Tripp analogy.

You know what I'm talking about, then?

[AP]

27. A question about your friends' reaction to me:

You say, "By the way, I've been telling people how a poster on DU thinks that Edwards is what every white male dreams of being. You should hear the laughter."

Are you 100% sure they're laughing with you?

[wjsander]

29. HAHAHA!!!

This is good. :7

[Skwmom]

20. What in my statement even indicated "classism?'

Just because I would like a qualified man, a sincere man, to be a heartbeat away from the presidency means I'm engaging in classism? If you think this line of defense is going to work when Rove and the media go after your guy, guess again. It what you call a real loser of a strategy.

[AP]

22. Because, like Tripp, you don't give much credit to people succeeding

at what most Americans do with their lives. Most people have nothing more to give to the world than their hard work and peculiar talents. Most Americans try to do the right thing with their life. They try to provide for the families without ruining other peoples' lives. This is all that Edwards has done with his life, and in the process he's brought others a great deal of happiness, security and justice (which is actually more than most people can say).

You think that's worth nothing. Most people think it's worth a great deal.

Basically, what you're saying is that the experiences of most Americans doesn't qualify them to be their own democratic representatives.

What you argue is basically the antithesis of democracy. The thing that should qualify a person to be a president is that they come from the same place you come from. Tripp believed the opposite.

[Scoopie]

35. To clarify

I don't think Skwmom is putting down Edwards for succeeding in law - what she's saying is that being a personal injury attorney is NOT a good career path to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
It really doesn't prepare one to handle the rigors of the job.
I happen to agree that Edwards is less than the best we can put in this position. I have no problems with his earning tons of money, but I do think it's a bit hypocritical for him, now, to be running as a populist.
I also don't see how persuading a jury to award a bazillion dollars prepares one for the actuality of leading a nation: they're two different things.
While you find Edwards awe-inspiring, I've been in enough court rooms to have heard his rhetoric 20 times over and I'm, frankly, bored to tears when he speaks, particularly when he says the same thing in nearly all of his speeches.

BTW, if you are truly after a REAL populist, you should be pulling for Kucinich or, even, Clark. Both grew up poorer than Edwards and made something out of themselves with less.

[Mike L]

43. Scoopie,

It really doesn't prepare one to handle the rigors of the job.]

I see you aren't aware of what it takes to prepare and WIN a big personal injury lawsuit against a large corporation. Believe me, juries don't want to give out big verdicts. A successful trial lawyer must have the total package.

[chimpymustgo]

44. In "Four Trials", Edwards talks about immersing himself in his cases

and learning all the technical minutia of fetal heart monitoring machines, swimming pool drains, etc. It takes a helluva mind to gather and absorb that degree of information, then shape it into a convincing legal argument.

Ain't no flies on Johnny Reid.

[Mike L]

45. Correct.

Clark (my Dem primary man) may be a Rhodes Scholar, but Edwards is the "smartest" of all the Democratic Primary candidates.

[Mike L]

46. And Juries must like the lawyer before they will give a verdict.

That might seem irresponsible of juries, and it is, but it is none-the-less true. Jim Carville said that Edwards is a better communicator than Bill Clinton. Now, if THAT'S not an endorsement, I don't know what is.

[chimpymustgo]

47. I'm amazed the topic is still open for discussion.

But I'm sure Kerry will make the right call.

[Mike L]

48. I'm not sure of that, but......................

I believe he will still win, even if he doesn't pick Edwards, unless he picks Hilary or some ultra-left politician.

[Darkamber]

25. When you speak of "Sincere" you are going to personal attack

That is a judgment call that you have made against Edwards, who you do not know personally. You are always attacking personal injury lawyers. Just a reminder that one out of ten dollars that Kerry raises is from Lawyers. That one of Kerry's top staff in fund raising is a Lawyer who supported Edwards.

Here's some more...facts...

It is sometimes forgotten, moreover, that Edwards is also experienced from his Senate term as a centrist. Thrust into the limelight by an unabashed admirer, named Kennedy, it was Edwards who angered his own trial lawyer supporters by fashioning an approach to reforming the civil litigation system that avoided surrender to the special interests seeking exemption from responsibility for malpractice, but instead focused on curing real defects. This was one reason Kerry pal John McCain came aboard the bandwagon for a patients' Bill of Rights.

Edwards has a plan to go after 'bad' lawyers. And if you wish to have someone with total experience in both Foreign policy and congressional/political then look no further then Gephardt.

[AP]

26. To paraphrase skwmom, when you resort to personal attacks you lose.

[wjsander]

8. He's also a senator!

Just thought you should know, since you left that out. ;-)

[teryang]

2. Good post

There is no denying Edwards appeal. He's articulate, good looking, and has the right accent and social background. The latter is what makes Kerry and other social register folks uncomfortable.

[spooky3]

3. Our Dem party newsletter (in VA) reported recently how the Kerry

campaign is very aware that VA is potentially in play (trends favoring Dems: Gore spent no time here but lost by a small margin compared to strong historical VA support for Repubs., and we now have a successful Democratic governor, population in the metro areas is booming, lots of military families who traditionally tend Repub but in these times may not, etc.). I think both Edwards and Clark could help him here, but Gephardt can't.

[JI7]

6. Kerry has already bought ads for virginia and campaigned there

he is serious about that state. i think at the very least he can make it a close state and turn it into a battleground state in the future rather than a solid republican state.

[SEpatriot]

5. Edwards is the man

Bottom line. Edwards adds the punch that is somewhat lacking. He is a stark contrast to Old Chainsaw Cheney and always exudes optimistic populism. And just let 'em try that "personal injury lawyer" nonsense. That stuff only resonates with business execs and grizzled cranks. Vilsak and Gephardt don't have it - they really add nothing.

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. they tried that in edwards' race against lauch faircloth.........

and it backfired, especially when the evening news shows showed side by side pictures of the two. i think edwards has a star quality that will resonate with younger voters & suburban housewives. unfortunately, in this pop culture society, good looks are a bonus. but i think most reasonable people, once they get to know edwards, will come to the conclusion that he's not only stylish, but he has substance as well.

[Scoopie]

36. Whatever

I'd like to actually vote for Kerry.
And, with Edwards on the ticket, that will be a reason NOT to.

[JI7]

7. don't believe the rumors about kerry and edwards

not liking each other. the media just reported that crap in the end when they had nothing else to do. they used a few moments when they were critical of each other during the primary to try to claim they didn't like each other.

while kerry is closer to gephardt because they have known each other longer i'm sure kerry and edwards get along fine as they did in most of the primary. you can't judge a relationship based on a few heated moments during a primary. and also remember that many of the events edwards is attending are ones kerry asked him to attend. including some of the tv appearances. if kerry didn't like him he would never have considered him for vp and asked him to campaign for him.

[chimpymustgo]

9. Kerry and Edwards were ALWAYS friendly during the primaries.

They would always chat before and after debates and appearances. Often pictures were published aftwards with the two of them smiling, and many - including those here at DU - wondered: is this the ticket?

I do believe this "uncomfortableness between the two" is a media fed meme.

[Jai4WKC08]

30. Since TPM enjoys a certain measure of credibility

It's seems a tad dishonest to identify the article as TPM without noting that it was written by a guest columnist/blogger, not by Josh Marshall, who is on vacation.

[Adelante]

31. Aha!

I didn't read through the link, but I was thinking :wtf:

[chimpymustgo]

32. It wouldn't have fit in the title.

But it is a real commentary - not something from a candidate's blog; or a musing fantasy...

[Jai4WKC08]

40. TPM guest writer advises Kerry: forget chuminess, choose Edwards

Yep, fits just fine.

Or you could have mentioned it in the body of your post.

[spooky3]

34. JM picked the guest because he respects his political analysis.

from the same linked site, further down the page: "Josh is delighted to have John and Ruy fill in for him during the remaining few days he's away. He has said that they are two of the people whose political analysis he respects most."

[Scoopie]

38. I can respect someone

without agreeing with him or her.

We just wanted to clarify that it was NOT Josh saying this.

[Scoopie]

37. Gee, hf_jai

You beat me to the punch AGAIN! LMAO!
I was about to post that exact same thing!

We must be sharing brain waves tonight! :)

[chimpymustgo]

41. Grabbing...grabbing...grabbing...think I got a STRAW...

Pulleez.

It is Talking Points Memo. And it's great that so many different people on the left think Edwards is the best for VEEP.