The distortion of polls that show Dean as the front-runner.

[Lobo_13]

As a campaign volunteer, I've learned quite a bit about how polls work as well as the nuts and bolts of voter outreach. One thing that no one here ever mentions is the bias AGAINST Howard Dean in his polling numbers.

Polls are not conducted by picking names out of the phone book. They are conducted using filtered lists, usu. of previous voter rolls. When you see a poll that says, "Likely democratic voters", they are using lists based on the Dem voter rolls in the last one or two presidential elections. The elections where turnout was very low.

From my experience, it would be fair to say that for every thousand people polled, there is at least 50 Dean supporters who are not on any polling list, not on any door knock list, not on any phone bank list. His actual numbers are probably 5 points over what is reported. And once people start to wake up to the opportunity presented, that ratio is set to go WAY up.

It's a great truth of the campaign that the pundits don't want to or can't acknowledge. Dean is bringing droves of people back into the process. And this time, the negative attacks only make our loyalty stronger.

Lobo_13: Wildcard for Dean

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. I hate to say it

but Dean reminds me of... reagan only in one way... he is bringing
people into the process and creating a new alliance

This will be surprising to the pundits, but more delicius, to the Exreme Rigth Wing

[Walt Starr]

3. Get ready to start saying

Dean Republicans

I've been waiting to say something along these lines for more than two decades. It's so close now, I can taste it.

[Lobo_13]

6. I think it goes deeper than Rep/Dem

There are a lot of people who have no discernable affiliation because they've never participated before or haven't participated in a long time. People who gave up on politics and have been given the opportunity to matter again.

[Walt Starr]

14. You're absolutely correct, it's just that "Dean Republicans"

will be such a jab in the eyes of the Republican bastards who through "Reagan Democrats" in my face for eight years.

[cryofan]

25. There would be Dean Republicans because Dean is cryptoRepublican?

That is what he seems like to me.....So I hope he does not get the nomination. Why bother if the nominee has a history of talking and acting like a Republican? And to make matters worse, then he tries to hide his past!

[seventhson]

7. My brother, a Doctor, is a Dean Republican

He is an elected Republican in his hometown, Yale graduate, Columbia medical school.

He was wearing a Dean button at a family gathering and I almost ....

well - I was thrilled.

[caledesi]

21. That is very cool SS. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. I have for three months now

The Revolution will not be televised, this is 1800 all over again...more than 1982

What is more delicious is that most RWers do NOT get it what I mean
when I say... Second American Revolution (this is the third for the record)

[caledesi]

20. I can taste it too and it's sweet. Dean Republicans....payback is hell.

[joefree1]

13. Reagan's a good example, so is Clinton

Both won. Thanks.

>> Can Clinton Save his Candidacy?
Many Democratic strategists and party activists think he may be able to regain some of his credibility among his party. But many others fear that his candidacy has been so badly damaged during the early primary process that he will find it nearly impossible to slough off his considerable negatives in a climate of widespread voter cynicism, suspicion, and anger toward all politicians.
In over three decades of political reporting, I cannot recall a time when some of the Democratic Party's senior strategists and adviser have spoken with such brutal candor about their likely nominee and his perceived weaknesses. Here's what some of them are saying:
"The negatives are forming on Bill Clinton like a political stalactite, drop by drop," said veteran Democratic consultant David Sawyer. "Each drip leaves a residue that builds on his negative image."
"The halls of Congress are filled with Democrats wringing their hands over their prospective nominee," Sawyer said.<<
http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm


Images from Dean Rocks the House of Blues, Hollywood
From wtmusic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=919849
From Joefree1 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=921300

[tedoll78]

2. Great point!

Dean looks like he could flood the IA caucuses with new voters. Consider:
- veteran political reporters noting how Democratic events are being attended by many "new folks"
- tens of thousands of donors who have never donated
- many of his donors being people under 30
- MeetUps often finding that many present have never participated politically

Iowa will be the first big test. If there's a surge in turnout and Dean walks away with it, look out!

[mitchtv]

4. this thread will also be a test

how many posts before the competition(dems) start to trash Dean ? BTW I am an undecided

[Lobo_13]

9. So

what do you think of the campaign so far?

Some habits die hard.

[mitchtv]

19. i am appalled

what a bunch of cry babies and sore losers.I personally like all but 1 candidate( who is not that bad either, compared to Bush) Any one would be better than "*". It seems certain Du'rs would rather lose than support any candidate but their favorite.

[Lobo_13]

22. I assume by cry babies and sore losers

you are talking about the other folks. What do you think about the Dean campaign so far. I'd be happy to answer any questions you've got.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[benddem]

10. Have you ever met Howard Dean

I have and there is nothing odd about the man. He's great.

[joefree1]

15. Saw him at the Hollywood House of Blues

I was stunned by how good a speaker he is. He also smiles more then the media will let you know. Here's some pics.

Images from Dean Rocks the House of Blues, Hollywood
From wtmusic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=919849
From Joefree1 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=921300

[Lobo_13]

16. He always seems to stammer to me

He's like a friend of mine who just starts talking a little too fast and tends to talk over himself. I've seen it more in debates, but he's done really well in the live appearances I've been at.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. #1 is odd.

Is that what you mean?

[seventhson]

12. America is odd

and our president is, ohh, an odd little dictator fascist.

Odd is cool.

[madfloridian]

17. Just watched the rerun on Hardball tonight. He was really odd.

And very great. I had forgotten how impressive he was on there.

[Lobo_13]

18. kickety kick kick

kick

[MarkTwain]

23. Beware: Three Little Words...

.... that would never appear in any pure analysis of polling data, the parameters and conditions inherent in the sample - or in any objective statistical analysis - as they did in the post which began this thread ....

"From my experience."

In terms of the rest of the "theory" presented: Hope does, indeed, spring eternal... doesn't it? To the point that EVEN the existing rather bogus numbers are not acceptable enough, we now are being led down the yellow brick road of "From my experience" and when the moon in is in the second house on the third Sunday assuming it is raining on the south side of the city.

Geeesh. This is but one reason why there is so much concern about the "good" Doctor. He and his supporters engage in such sophistry to such absurd extents that Karl and Dick are just sittin' in the duck blind waiting for these mallards to fly by next summer. KA-Boom!

There goes the republic.

[Lobo_13]

24. Ironically

Mark Twain would be a Dean supporter.

In my experience.

[MarkTwain]

26. That's equally astute...

...and observant as the original "theory" presented in this thread.

To extrapolate the political behaviour of a man - irrespective of the volume of his own writings contemporaneous to the politics of his own era - but who died almost one hundred years ago and to do so into current political climates has as much accuracy as, well, believing that the "good" Doctor - with all of the baggage he brings to this trip - has a snow ball's chance in hell of surviving Karl Rove next year.

Reading this board these last two weeks has been eye opening in just further affirming my belief that if a man is at all representative of his supporters, Doctor Dean is one irrational, erratic, irresponsibly emotional - and at times highly irritating bag of tricks.

Just what you need to run for the Presidency of this country against the likes of the GOP machine, huh?

[Lobo_13]

28. You're just jealous

that your guy is getting roundly trounced (unless you're a clark supporter, then you're just getting trounced.)

But that's to be expected, after all:

"Great spirits have often encountered violent opposition from weak minds."

Albert Einstien (not Albert Brooks)

[MarkTwain]

29. Trounced ?

... I think that the General would love to continue being as "trounced" as he currently is, by your standards, at least.

Thanks to the General, this ball game is just starting - irrespective of the "presumed" nominee, Doctor Dean and his merry band of lava lamps and their beliefs.

We're just into the first inning and your pitcher is peaking much too early. In addition to the fact that the adults of the Democratic party will now have their post holiday carving knives out for him, it will be the General who will do the clean up and save not only the game for the party - but the republic, as well.

Sorry. Nothing personal. It's just that I see only one issue in this race: up wards of three SCOTUS appointments which will impact this country for the next fifty years. I just don't find it necessary to leave such a critical moment in the hands of the like of Dean to prevail. Should he prevail as the nominee, he and all of his very negative baggage, his personality, and his history is going to get the Democrats destroyed. Along with my country.

As an aside, "Trounced" and "Clark" in the same sentence - Boy! Don't these Dean people EVER get tired of making supremely foolish statements and assessments? Guess not. See the post which began this thread as but one example of the quality of scientific acumen and political thinking.

[windansea]

27. LOL n/t

[ozone_man]

30. Very good point.

I hadn't thought of that in regards to polling, but I bet you are right. Certainly it will give a boost to the candidates who are most energizing the electorate, and I think that would be Dean and Kucinich. Great wildcard.