Zogby: Bush gains advantage in electoral vote 285-253

[WI_DEM]

Zogby said that Bush had a "good last two weeks" beginning with the good will generated by the Reagan memorial and positive economic news and now leads Kerry in the electoral college 285-253. Previously Kerry was leading 296-242.

Zogby says that Bush gained the lead in four states: Florida, Michigan (!), Nevada and West Virginia while Kerry gained the lead in only one--Arkansas.

Zogby says that Kerry's selection of a VP and performance at the convention will be critical.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=836

[phillybri]

1. How the fuck is * ahead in Michigan???

:shrug:

10. That won't last after Iacoca endorsed Kerry

I hope.

How the hell can a strong union state prefer Bush?

[SaveElmer]

2. Don't bother with these polls

It's like weighing yourself every day when you are on a diet...it'll drive you crazy. Things move up and down on a short term basis...but the fact is events are on our side...so just keep your eye on the long term picture.

[FloridaPat]

3. Why would anyone in Nevada vote for * when he wants to

put all that radioactive pollution there? Same with California. How many times do the people have to be screwed over before they change their vote????

[ugarte]

4. Polls fluctuate, but

Zogby is right: in an election this close, never was a VP choice more crucial. I pray it's Edwards myself.

[moez]

9. If Edwards were at the top of the ticket

We wouldn't have any reason to sweat right now... If nothing else, Reagan was proof that personality plays in politics - and Kerry doesn't measure up.

[Frances]

5. This was the interactive poll, not Zogby's regular poll

Can someone explain the difference in Zogby's two polls?

[tritsofme]

13. Interactive is done through the internet

and is not scientifically conducted. While his regular polls are done the traditional way, over phone using scientific methods.

The results of the Interactive polls do nothing but take up bandwith.

[diplomats]

6. Polls have come out in Ohio and Florida

since the Zogby poll that are very good for Kerry.

[GRClarkesq]

7. Many states within margin or error

Zogby's electoral vote count is meaningless unless you have clear leaders.

Within margin of error: (6/15 - 6/20 Zogby polls)

State (leader)

Arkansas (Kerry)
Iowa (Kerry)
Michigan (Bush)
Missouri (Bush)
Nevada (Bush)
New Hampshire (Kerry)

[TexasSissy]

8. This was the interactive poll. Interactive polls are interesting, but not

trustworthy, IMO.

[bluedog]

11. Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 269 Bush 269

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[tritsofme]

12. Zogby Interactive polls are worthless

I said this when everyone here was salivating over these polls when they tipped it Kerry inordinately a few weeks ago, and I say it now.

These are internet polls, and they are not scientific.

The fact that they swing so much in their two releases this election season prove their worthlessness to me even more.

[59millionmorons]

14. Finally somebody points this out

You have to sign up just to take this poll, and who is signing up PARTISANS not independents.