PA: Clinton beats Obama 53-38 in Zogby's Sunday 1 day polling....

[woolldog]

Too early to tell whether this is part of a trend or a one day anomaly (like Obama beating Clinton 1 day earlier).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/NewsmaxPADay5NR%204_21_2008.pdf

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. It's over.

Still.

[Brundle_Fly]

96. OMG FN GOD.

here is the actual poll....

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1484


Clinton 47%
Obama 42%
Not sure 8%

She leads among Catholics, 63% to 24%, while Obama leads among Protestants by a 54% to 38% margin. The two religious demographic groups are roughly the same size in Pennsylvania.

[woolldog]

108. Get a clue buddy

I'm posting one of the days in the two day average (the two day average is 48-42).

[joeybee12]

2. I don't trust Zogby...but a 15 point win by Hilary would certainly

start to make some of the SD's have doubts, especially after BO's whining of the last several days.

[Faygo Kid]

4. Read the release. This post is dishonest. It's not 51-38.

Believe what you want, but the OP is misleading - at best.

[Faygo Kid]

3. That's NewsMax/Zogby, and you speak an untruth - that includes all white and Catholic undecideds

"As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%." - Zogby.

What are you trying to pull here? Go with your treasured NewsMax numbers honestly, at least.

Geesh. Also, NewsMax - there's a great site to use to post at DU.

[writes3000]

7. Those are the undecideds numbers not the overall number. So the OP's claim is wrong but.

since DU seems to throw up every poll from anywhere, this should be included.

[woolldog]

11. How is it false?

It doesn't say that those are the undecided numbers. Those are not undecided number. It says that "Just today alone she polled %53-%38

I will delete my OP immediately if I'm wrong here.

[JackORoses]

17. you are wrong.

"As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%."

It says that she is winning white Catholics 53-38.
These White Catholics make up the largest part of the undecideds, so if they show up to vote, it will benefit Hillary.

She is not leading in overall voting 53-38, so your OP is false.

[woolldog]

22. I expect an apology from you later,

when I am proven to be correct.

[JackORoses]

25. how will what Zogby's poll stated change later?

He is saying thatsince Hillary leads 53-38 among white catholics, and white catholics make up the majority of undecideds, this should be good for her.

But he in no way stated that she is leading 53-38 in overall likely voters.
Therefore, you cannot be proven correct.

[woolldog]

39. No he's not saying that! Can't you read?

The press release goes on to state Clinton's numbers with catholics, and it is NOT 53-38.

On Sunday Clinton lead Catholics 63-25:

"Clinton leads among Catholics, 63% to 25%, reflecting a small gain for Clinton." (from the same press release).

Good God, man. Learn to read.

[BklnDem75]

81. You're reading it wrong

Clinton leads among Catholics, 63% to 25%, reflecting a small gain for Clinton.

That's ALL Catholics.

As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%.

That's white and Catholics.

She gained two points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, and she now leads
48% to 42%, the latest polling shows.

That's the actual poll numbers.

[woolldog]

87. NO. YOU are reading it wrong.

[BklnDem75]

89. Your argument's convincing...

but I will still have to disagree. You clearly latched onto one sentence in that paragraph and ran with it. Nothing in that pdf supports the argument you're trying to make with that one sentence.

[woolldog]

95. I'm an Obama supporter, who happens to understand

the methodology of this poll. I didn't latch onto anything.

This troubles me b/c we saw the same type of movement in Ohio and Texas just prior to the primary.

[BklnDem75]

98. Never questioned your support...

just your reading comprehension. I'm saying nothing supports your argument.

[woolldog]

101. I suggest you read this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average

and then this

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

and then this

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/NewsmaxPADay5NR%204_21_2008.pdf

very carefully (EVERY WORD!) and then get back to me. You will understand.

[woolldog]

72. Where's my apology?

You all but called me a liar and an idiot and have been proven wrong on both counts. I demand an apology, sir.

[Faygo Kid]

21. Let's repeat it.

"As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%." - Zogby.

Your problem is relying on NewsMax. NewsMax is a lying rag, and will torch Hillary like this every chance it gets. I imagine they cut out ". . .in that demographic." from the end of Zogby's quote.

Whatever you do with this post, please don't rely on anything you get from NewsMax. They are proven long-term liars and haters of all things Dem.

We don't need NewsMax trash here.

[woolldog]

26. IT'S A ZOGBY/NEWSMAX POLL!!!

For chissakes it is Zogby's PA tracking poll, idiot. People have been posting it every single day! Now when it says something you don't like, you criticize it?? That makes no sense. No one criticized it when it said Obama had won one day of polling.

Why are you attacking the source now???

[Faygo Kid]

34. Name calling now, and so NewsMax is an unimpeachable source??

You have obviously never written a press release.

If you buy every "spin" of a press release, I have swampland for sale in Florida for you.

This is useless. Believe what you will, no matter how specious.

[woolldog]

38. It's not newsmax as a source!

For godsake, the letterhead says Zobgy international!

It's the same PA tracking poll that has been cited here everyday for the last week at least.

[DerekJ]

78. faygokid, Newsmax hired Zogby to do the poll.

If you were to believe there is any manipulation, you have to believe Zogby allowed them to change the results.

It's Zogby’s credibility not Newsmax credibility.

[democracy1st]

93. One day poll

thats weak

[Pirate Smile]

5. Their Sunday polling didn't include Sunday night - only calls earlier in the day?

Seems odd.

[ClassWarrior]

6. She's gonna take it by 20.

They've been managing expectations for weeks, and everyone's buying into it. Either way, the Obama's delegate lead will change by very little.

NGU.

[jenmito]

8. Isn't Newsmax the website that claimed they had proof of Obama in church during one of Wright's

controversial sermons? And then they had to apologize?

[woolldog]

14. It's a Newsmax/Zogby poll

Zogby is a legitimate pollster and it's a tracking poll.

I don't know why he's teaming up with Newsmax, but newsmax isn't conducting the poll, Zogby is.

[Faygo Kid]

24. And NewsMax is "interpreting" it. See post 21.

You really think any NewsMax press release spinning poll numbers is reliable?

Enough from me. I hope you are a fair minded person and not rely on NewsMax.

[woolldog]

29. No one is interpreting it.

Those are Zogby's own words, that Clinton had a big day of polling on Sunday. He then lists that Clinton won Sunday 53-38. No interpretation required.

[jenmito]

41. It's a Newsmax/Zogby poll. 'Nuff said.

[woolldog]

54. jen c'mon.

It's a Zogby poll. Let's be fair here. No one had a problem with it, when a couple of days ago Obama won a day of polling. So Clinton won a day of polling on Sunday. This tracking poll is posted every day on here, yet when I post it suddenly it's a problem.

I'm genuinely hurt by the reaction I've gotten. :(

[jenmito]

77. Sorry, woolldog...

but Newsmax is a total RW smear machine. A "Newsmax/Zogby poll" doesn't cut it...no matter WHO'S up.

[DerekJ]

79. jenmito. I can go hire Zogby to do a poll for me. Zogby will not change the numbers just because I

told them to do so , and put it on their letterhead.

It’s Zogby not Newsmax.

:hi:

[SoCalDem]

15. Didn't they also have photos of Hillary killing Vince Foster

:rofl:

[jenmito]

43. I think so.

:rofl:

[MethuenProgressive]

9. Only polls showing Obama doing well are allowed. This poll must be fixed!

Period.

[woolldog]

32. It's weird.

I'm as big an Obama supporter as anyone, (as maybe you know) but I'm not leaving my common sense at the door. Sunday's results are Sunday's results. It's really not a big deal. And it could be an anomaly, after all Obama won Friday or Saturday I think.

Geez, some of the people on here are scary.

[SoCalDem]

10. Too bad for her that Zogby's not holding the election today

:rofl:

[JackORoses]

12. your OP is false. She is leading 53-38 among white Catholics, not among all voters.

[SoCalDem]

18. White Catholics who bowl, drink shots & shoot ducks?

:)

[woolldog]

20. I think you're wrong.

That's not what I took from reading it.

He says explicitly that Clinton "had a big one day of polling."

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the
pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a
one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are
breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%."

[Petey Wheatie]

13. The "cling to religion and racism" gaffe and the debate have been disasterous for him. n/t

[woolldog]

47. No, not really.

Obama has actually won 1 or 2 individual days of polling since then. It's a 2 day moving average, so this day will be average in with polling on Monday, I believe.

[bluestateguy]

16. Hillary voters are home all day on Sundays

Obama voters are younger and more likely to be out for the day.

Hillary voters are older and more likely to be at home watching TV, or lounging around the house.

[truthpusher]

19. .

[woolldog]

23. IT IS NOT BS.

That's the one day sample for Sunday. CAN'T YOU PEOPLE READ?!

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the
pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a
one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are
breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%."

[JackORoses]

36. you are highlighting the wrong parts

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the
pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a
one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are
breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%."

These two sentences go together.
"As I suggested yesterday,... Just today alone..."

The latter expounds upon the former.

[woolldog]

50. AND IF YOU HAD READ THE REST OF THE PRESS RELEASE

YOU'D SEE THAT THE CATHOLIC NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY ARE DETAILED LATER IN THE RELEASE. AND THEY ARE NOT 53-38. THEY ARE 63-25. DUH!! :

"Clinton leads among Catholics, 63% to 25%, reflecting a small gain for Clinton."

[truthpusher]

57. gotcha - deleted post

[JackORoses]

62. I am willing to bet there are several non-white Catholics in PA.

[AtomicKitten]

27. She has a narrow 3-point lead in Pennsylvania.

[noel711]

28. Go to REalClearPolitics..read the article..

This is the number for White Catholics....

Pennsylvania is NOT ALL white Catholics...

So parading this number around is bogus....

Do you know the African American numbers in
the Philadelphia area? Its more than enough to
cancel out any edge from White Catholics!

Do your homework!

[woolldog]

35. Sorry noel, but those aren't the numbers for Catholics

On Sunday Clinton lead Catholics 63-25:

"Clinton leads among Catholics, 63% to 25%, reflecting a small gain for Clinton."

[PBS Poll-435]

42. You have my sympathies.

I really feel for ya, I do.

[woolldog]

64. lol....thanks

:banghead:

[noel711]

83. Wooly... read the article...

I can't paste it in coz its a PDF file...

He says if white catholics come out in force,
these are the statistics.....

And I still think it's questionable,
white catholics or not...

[Petey Wheatie]

30. HOLY SHIT! But, then again, it's a Zogby poll, so....n/t

[IsItJustMe]

31. Aint gonna happen. Happy thoughts anyway, for you. Is this a positive thinking exercise?

[writes3000]

33. Okay, wooldog, think about this please.

Two days ago, Zogby said that Obama polled 40% overall - which was the lowest he had ever polled.

And Hillary was nowhere near 53% in that same poll.

Do you think he'd bury that kind of headline? The headline that Obama is now polling worse than he's ever polled? C'mon.

[PBS Poll-435]

44. Read the table...

[GoldieAZ49]

37. It has to be an anomaly

far to large a lead

[madrchsod]

40. it`s over..hillary has won the nomination

there`s no doubt that a 20+ blow out of obama will turn the super delegates to hillary and by this time next week obama will concede the primary......

[Quixote1818]

45. Those numbers are not even near a 20 point blow out

53 to 38 will likely end up around 57 to 42. As Zogby pointed out, a lot of undecideds didn't like either candidate so they probably won't vote or will vote for someone else as a write in.

Also, Obama will take NC by 15 or 20 and things will basically be a wash again.

[JackORoses]

56. ahahahahahahaha!!!!!

that's Hillarious!

[madrchsod]

105. at least someone laughed

hillarious.....:woohoo:

[aaaaaa5a]

46. Is This One Day Or A Trend......

Zogby's polls are two day averages. On Saturday Obama led 46-44. The 53-38 poll was completed Sunday Morning/Afternoon. That is not a reliable time to reach voters. Monday's number should provide clarity. It will be interesting to see if Monday's result is more in line with Saturday's polling number or a poll conducted Sunday morning.

[woolldog]

61. exactly. thank you. there is intelligent life on DU. afterall...

It's one day. I was posting it FYI, and with the caveat that it could be an anomaly. but for some reason I'm getting attacked viciously.

If she posts similar numbers on Monday, then it has to be viewed as the beginning of a significant shift. And I'd expect her to win big in PA. We saw the same kind of thing happen in Ohio and, to a lesser degree in Texas. It inidicates the undecideds are breaking to her (or maybe that a lot of undecideds were never really undecided). If Mondays numbers are in line with the numbers before Sunday, the contest on Tues may be close, which is good for Obama.

The other possibility is that a lot of these late undecideds breaking for her, aren't enthusiastic about Hillary, say they favor her, but decide to stay home.

As an Obama supporter, Sunday numbers trouble me a little. But it could just be an anomaly.

[Quixote1818]

75. That is exactly right. Plust it would be a very small sample. nt

[A-Schwarzenegger]

48. The 53-38% is only talking about "white and Catholic voters." Here's why:

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the
pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a
one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are
breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%."

"Undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day polling."

but 53-38 leaves 9% undecided.

I think the 53-38 is ONLY talking about "white and Catholic voters".

[woolldog]

52. except that later in the press release the Catholic numbers are given

and they are not 53-38. They are 63-25:

"Clinton leads among Catholics, 63% to 25%, reflecting a small gain for Clinton."

Also, Zogby says explicitly that Clinton had a big day of polling. He isn't referring only to catholics.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

53. Then how do you explain the discrepancy in undecideds from 5% to 9%?

He says there are only 5% undecideds in the one-day.
But 53-38 leaves 9% undecided.

[woolldog]

63. b/c there is a "someone else" option.

look at the table.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

73. Youre simply wrong on this, wool, though the paragraph in question is poorly written.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

From the previous poll, with similar focus on white & Catholic voters:

"But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama. They compose a pretty big chunk of Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain in the general election. If this small group of white/Catholic undecideds do not vote, Obama can win Pennsylvania if he is able to get out his base of young voters, African American voters, and Very Liberal voters. If those white/Catholics do vote, then they will probably vote for Clinton and she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations. It looked like she was moving some of these voters after the debate, but today is a different story. Too soon to tell."

[woolldog]

90. I'm not wrong, thank you.

Average Sunday's numbers with Saturday's numbers and you magically get 48-42 Clinton, which is the published spread in the tracking poll for today.

Zogby's tracking poll is a 2 day moving average. That means today's published spread of 42-48 is made up of Sunday's poll and Saturday's poll. Tommorrow's will be made up of Sunday (53-38) and Monday (?-?) numbers.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

109. Youre right. I was wrong.

I put a longer post in the other thread.

[aaaaaa5a]

55. I think this is how it works.....

If I understand Zogby's polls they are combination of two day averages.

His two day total is C-48 O-42

If Saturday's number was C-43 O-46...................total decided voters 89/undecided 11

Then Sunday's number must be C-53 O-38............... total decided voters 91/undecided 9

This is how he concluded undecided voters (majority catholic) are breaking for Clinton. But like I mentioned before, Sunday morning sampling could be suspect. We need to see Monday's number to determine a trend.

To be fair I must add that it appears Pennsylvania is looking just like Ohio where late undecided voters are going towards Clinton.

[Quixote1818]

71. Keep in mind she had the NAFTA thing in her favor in Ohio. This time around

it's just the opposite. It's now clear she lied and had been pushing NAFTA. That will work against her this time.

[Buzz Clik]

49. I think we can dispense with the PA polls now and simply wait for the voting.

It's only two days.

[Quixote1818]

51. Zogby is referring to Catholics. Read it closely. nt

[woolldog]

65. NO HE IS NOT

YOU NEED TO READ MORE CLOSELY!

[MadBadger]

58. Now lets do some math. If you add those numbers to yesterday's does that equal a six point lead?

I think not.

[woolldog]

100. Umm...

Saturday, Obama won 46-44. Sunday he lost 38-53. Do the math buddy. That equals H-48 and O-42, which is coincidentally today's published spread.

:eyes:

[Frank Booth]

59. I think Hillary will take it by double digits. But I think that 53-38 Sunday polling is incorrect.

For 4/19 - 4/20, they have Clinton leading by 48 to 42. Since it's a 2 day average, Obama would have had to carry Saturday 46 to 43 (assuming both days are weighted equally). That doesn't measure up with the rest of the polling, and if there really was that big of a one-day swing, I think it would put the entire poll results into question.

[stevenleser]

60. Here is the actual Zogby Release from today, it has 46-43 with Obama winning todays polling by 2

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

[Frank Booth]

66. The OP's link is dated 4/21, and shows Hillary with a 6 point lead.

Meaning, as of today, Hillary's got the momentum (assuming you can trust Zogby, or any of these polls).

[stevenleser]

69. Today is 4/20. What I linked is the latest info from Zogby, unless you have a flux capacitor

and a Delorean, there isnt any newer info.

[Frank Booth]

76. Read the doc. It's because it's set for release on 4/21. I did that all without the flux capacitor

and the Delorean.

[crankychatter]

67. top post this Steve, so the Chicken Little Crew can take a Recess?

maybe play some dodgeball or foursquare?

[stevenleser]

68. Looks like someone just beat me to it...

[boppers]

70. Less then 62% = FAIL

She has to get 62% or more, otherwise she'll have to get even *more* in future states.

53% wouldn't even be close to that.

[Quixote1818]

74. If it's a tracking poll then todays sample was probably very small

Keep in mind that Obama polled better than Clinton yesterday. I can't believe it would change that drastically in one day.

Plus on Sunday's old people tend to be home, only gone for church and younger people tend to be out an about.

[usregimechange]

82. Which is why he averages the two days together...

[GoesTo11]

80. Zogby: “If a 10-point victory is the threshold, it looks like she can do it"

That's his call. He generally calls them as he sees them, and since he called California for Obama, I have no reason to think he's pro-Clinton. Not that this argues for his accuracy ...

If he's right, prepare for another 2 months of silly season.

[BklnDem75]

84. How do you miss this line?

She gained two points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, and she now leads
48% to 42%, the latest polling shows.

It clearly states his results.

[woolldog]

85. Zogby tracking poll is a 2 day moving average.

Sunday is one day in that moving average. The results from Sunday are averaged with the results from yesterday to get that 48-42 figure.

[BklnDem75]

86. Did you read the chart?

It shows the result of 2 days which is 48% to 42%

[woolldog]

92. HOW DO YOU THINK THEY GET TO THOSE NUMBERS???

Zogby's tracking poll is a 2 day moving average. Do you know what a 2 day moving average is?

Sunday's numbers: 53-38

Saturday's numbers: 44-46

Add up each column and divide by 2.

Voila! Today's published spread: 48-42

[BklnDem75]

97. So let me get this straight...

You look at the chart where the numbers go up and down by 1% for each poll, you see Hillary's jump 5% and Obama's drop 4% on the same day. You're saying that I'm reading it wrong? And before you start bringing averages into it, 46% on Saturday and 53% today does not make 48%. The chart would read 50% if I'm reading what you're saying correctly. 49.5% to be precise.

I think I'll stick with what the pdf says: She gained two points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, and she now leads
48% to 42%, the latest polling shows.

[woolldog]

99. Bkln,

Obama won saturday H-44 O-46

Hillary won Sunday H-53 O-38

Thus today's published spread is H-48 O-42. Do the math!

Tommorrow's results will drop Saturday's results and inlcude Sunday (H-53 O-38) and Monday's (as yet undetermined) and average them. Do you understand now?

[BklnDem75]

103. Where are you getting these numbers from?

I'm on Zogby's site right now. Can you provide a link for these numbers so I can do the math better?

[woolldog]

104. Follow the last two links in this post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5593389&mesg_id=5595795

[Azathoth]

88. Zogby is all over the place n/t

[book_worm]

91. Well we will find out soon enough--Tuesday's around the corner.

[adoraz]

94. I'm pretty sure this is TRUE for the one day.

I just did the math, and I got the same results for the 1 day polling unfortunately...

[Aloha Spirit]

102. Check out this damning poll from Pennsylvania

[johnnydrama]

106. the fact

the fact that this poll was released much earlier than any other polls, meaning they did the polls at much different time of the day, make it suspect.

Especially suspect when you compare it to a previous day of polls taken at a different time.

[woolldog]

107. that's a decent point. n/t