Rasmussen: Alabama poll

[quaoar]

This poll makes Alabama look hopeless -- and it probably is. However, it is closer than it appears.
First, this poll is of likely voters. The 14-point margin is less than Bush won by in 2000. Plus, this represents a 7-point drop for Bush in Alabama from the previous month.

Bush 52%
Kerry 38%
Other 4%
Not Sure 5%

July 11, 2004--In Alabama, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush leading by 14 percentage points over Senator Kerry.

The 52% to 38% margin for the President is similar to his sixteen point victory in the state four years ago. In Election 2000, Bush carried Alabama by a 57% to 41% margin.

In last month's Alabama poll, Bush was ahead 57% to 36% in

Bush leads by more than 20 points among Alabama Investors. He has a much smaller lead among non-Investors.

Kerry leads Bush leads by 20 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of all Alabama voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's up four points from a month ago and way above his national Job Approval rating. Even 40% of Alabama Democrats give the President's job performance their approval.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Alabama%20July%2011.htm

[Tweed]

1. My two cents

He drops 7 points overall, but job approval goes up 4 points. That's kind of out of whack, but you have some undecided voters still. I'm not saying that Kerry will win Alabama or anything, but people know what they are going to get from George Bush and only 52% want him as President for sure. That's damn good news in my book!

[Claire Beth]

2. There's always hope!

:kick:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Alabama is not worth pissing away resources on

It won't fall our way, and any money/time spent there is for naught. There aren't even competitive races for us to win there in the House or Senate. It's a complete waste.

[Syrinx]

5. 3rd Congressional district

Republican won 51/49 last time. Bill Fuller has the capability to oust Rogers.

[quaoar]

9. No it won't fall for Kerry

Although it most likely would if Roy Moore was on the Constitution Party ballot.

What's interesting about the Alabama poll is the erosion in Bush's support. If his support is slipping in Alabama, what's it doing elsewhere?

[zulchzulu]

4. It's early yet

I always think of Kerry's poll numbers pre-Iowa... when was he supposed to drop out... why the heck do you like Kerry... blah blah blah.

Edwards and Cleland might do some magic there. Who knows.

[lil-petunia]

6. oh no, The sky is falling

Next thing will be sludgereport proclaiming that Alabama is a huge landslide for shrub, ergo Kerry is losing it.

Amazing how he can find the lemons in lemon juice.

[Zorra]

7. Quoting Lynyrd Skynyrd:

In Birmingham they love the governor
Now we all did what we could do
Now Watergate does not bother me
Does your conscience bother you?
Tell the truth

(lyrics Sweet Home Alabama)

Alabama might be hopeless.

[quaoar]

8. The line about Birmingham

loving the governor (Wallace) was sarcasm. Wallace was constantly feuding with Birmingham and retaliated by refusing to finish the Interstate highway through the city.

Sweet Home Alabama, BTW, should be the state song -- in spite of a few lyrics.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. That's An Awesome Song

I also liked Emimem and Mikhail Pfeifer's (sp) version in Eight Mile


Lyrnd Skynrd was a great group

Sweet Home Alabama

Give Me Back My Bullets

That Smell

The Breeze

Simple Man

[osaMABUSh]

11. Alabama? - not even worth a Thread here - Miss is just as likely

Kerry country. Let's get real: we win the 2000 blue states and take OH and FLA and game over. Let's focus where the battles lie - forget the deep South. BTW FLA is not the Deep South - FLA is it's own 'America'.

[elperromagico]

12. Kerry's best chances in the Confederate South

are in Arkansas and possibly Tennessee. I frankly don't regard Louisiana as much of a chance for him.

I agree with you about Florida; even in the days when the South voted as a bloc for Democratic presidential nominees, Florida would sometimes go for the Republican. It's South-Lite at best.

[QC]

14. "forget the deep South"

Yeah, I guess those open Senate seats in places like Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, etc. don't really matter. I mean, we have a good shot at them, but it's not like we really need them or anything. Democratic voters surely won't let their abandonment by the national party affect how they vote in congressional and state elections. And it won't hurt us any if Bush gets to spend his entire warchest in the swing states.

Brilliant strategy there.

[bluestateguy]

13. Too many racists in Alabama

We have some good people here from Alabama, and by no means are all or even most people in that state racist, but the Republican base in Alabama is larger than the Democratic base. Nor does it hurt Republicans in Alabama that felons are barred from voting for life, disproportionatley affecting black people. Democrats would have to win almost all swing voters and get a good turnout of their voters. Not worth it. Let Bush have it.

[quaoar]

15. Y'all are missing my point

I'm not suggesting that Kerry launch an ad campaign here in the Heart of Dixie. Although if trends continue, who knows.

I'm most interested in the fact that Bush has dropped 7 points in just a month in a state that should be his Rock of Gibraltar. Surely that has implications outside of Alabama.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

16. Kerry has the same shot at Alabama, Mississippi, Utah, North Dakota

Wyoming, Kentucky, or Alaska as Bush has at DC.

We won't be taking any of those states in the next 36 years.

[FuriousMNDem]

17. 14 points? 16 weeks left?

Kerry would have a very hard time winning this. Just like Truman probably won't win the 1948 election.

You never know. At least not until the night of November 2.

[I Lean Left]

18. Kerry should show some balls

I don't think he has a chance in the South, but if we always write it off, we'll always have to. Just a showing. A nice size rally like what happened in NC the other day. Remember, 40% voted against Bush in 2000. It's not like everyone down there likes Bush. Just get a couple of nice rallies in those states, and people will feel more willing to be outward with their support. Reduce the stigma. Start to see bumper stickers, yard signs. Take small steps.

We get 40% without any advertising or campaigning. What the hell. Send Edwards. Have a fund raiser. Any kind of response, Kerry shows up for the next one.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

19. The time to show some balls

is when the election is won, and the balls to be shown are swallowing hard and making a few concessions to what moderate southerners - not insane social conservatives but moderates who can't stand the word "liberal" - want.

You do not convert a hard core opposition during an election. You convert them gradually over a long period by reducing the gulf between your side and theirs. That may not be sexy, but it's how it's done.

If we bump from 40 to 44 in the border south and in doing so blow just FL or OH, we're just as dead. It aint worth it. In golf sometimes you lay up and just play to par the hole.

[quaoar]

20. Just for the sake of argument

What do you suppose the reaction in the media and from Bush would be in Kerry suddenly spent some time and/or money in a state that no one expected him to win but perhaps has shown some poll movement his way?

What if he honored the anniversary of the Voting Rights Act by retracing the route of the Selma-to-Montgomery march? Or suppose he ran some ads in Kansas or made a joint appearance in South Dakota with Daschle?