Rasmussen: Arkansas 46-46 plus New Mexico poll numbers

[WI_DEM]

It is neck and neck in Arkansas with 46% for Bush and 46% for Kerry in a new Rasmussen poll.

In New Mexico, Kerry leads by seven, 50-43 with 5% for the Libertarian candidate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Ok we are starting to clearly see the beginngs of

a landslide... time to redouble our efforts

[Zynx]

2. Indeed. We should be encouraged, but work harder to obtain the result we

desire.

[MidwestTransplant]

11. That's before the Big Dog shows up!

[Nite Owl]

3. Thanks for that bit

of great news. Bet the Bushies* didn't plan on having to spend money in some of these states like Arkansas. We definitely got a post convention bounce.

[DaveinMD]

4. Arkansas

was always going to be a battleground state. Its one of our best chances in the south.

[democratreformed]

14. Indeed, I posted an article once

on one of Bush's visits to Arkansas. In it, he told about how important the state was to him. We have been bombarded here with visits from him and Cheney and Mrs. Bush.

God, it's encouraging to see it so close despite all the attention he has given us.

Kerry's gonna take Arkansas! I just know it!

[Beetwasher]

5. Nice Lead Opening Up In NM

Theoretically, I think, if we take one or two of these s.w. states, Kerry could win even withouth OH or FL, if he wins every state Gore won...

[DaveinMD]

6. Gore won

New Mexico last time. Its just about a must win for us.

[Beetwasher]

7. I've Done Some EV Scenarios

In which we can win w/out it...But we would have to pick up either OH or FL. To win w/out OH or FL, Kerry would have to win two S.W. states, like NM and NV as well as pick up another state like Missouri...I think...I'll have to check again..

[DaveinMD]

8. I think

we can win Arizona. We barely lost there last time and didn't spend a dime. They elect a Dem governor in 2002.

[faithnotgreed]

9. hi dave - welcome to du!

[DaveinMD]

13. thanks

for the welcome

[Beetwasher]

10. Yeah, Actually, We've Got a Real Good Shot

at AZ, NV and NM. That's be a hell of a nice chunk for Kerry! CO is also starting to soften up! If we get the S.W. block, I'm pretty sure Kerry can win w/out OH and FL. Doublechecking now though...

Yup. LA Times has a cool EV map and you can run your own scenarios:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory

Kerry wins by winning every Gore state and just picking up AZ...

Welcome to DU!!!

[DaveinMD]

12. true about Colorado

I'm working on a bunch of races out there and Kerry is definitely in the race out there. Democrats across the board will do well in Colorado.

[Zynx]

15. How much do you think a big Salazar win in the Senate race would help Kerr

y?

[DaveinMD]

16. it would certainly help

but not that much. Coattails usually don't work in reverse. The fact is that Democrats are very energized in Colorado and Salazar is a great candidate. Just as important Stan Matsunaka, Dave Thomas and John Salazar have good shots at winning Congressional seats. I am working for Stan Matsunaka. Check him out.

www.stan2004.com

Stan is running against the author of the Hate Amendment.

[rockymountaindem]

19. Surprisingly, I've seen lots of Salazar and Miles yard signs in CS

They don't outnumber the Republican signs, but people are out there.

[louis c]

25. I just put up a thread

If the election was tomorrow, in which I show the scenarios. IMHO.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. Gore won by only a handful of votes- less than half a percent

This is a HUGE lead by that measure, and a good inidcator in a bellwether state.

[beyurslf]

20. I see the SW and the Mountain West being the new "South" for the Dems.

NM, NV, CO, AZ, CA, OR, WA

I would love to see Blue from the NE all through the Great Lakes (minus IN) and over to the Central Plains. Extend South through TN and over to MO and down to AR and maybe LA. Skip over a few states there in the middle and start again at CO and move SW to the ocean and take the whole coast.

[DaveinMD]

21. its possible

but not very likely. If we pick up two of Arizona, NEvada and Colorado we'll be in amazing shape.

[veteran_for_peace]

17. My first post

If you would like to know about my politics come to http://jflood1000.blogspot.com

[mourningdove92]

22. I read your comments

good stuff!

[yellowcanine]

18. Peggy Nooner is also going to be "helping" Bush. That should be good for

a couple of points - for Kerry.

[Pepperbelly]

23. there are a lot of good people in Arkansas ...

and we have trditionally sent some of the most liberal congressional delegations to DC. There are, however, some dumbasses as well.

It will be close here. I think Kerry could easily win but it will be close. The congressional district in the northwest part of the state will be heavily gop and within central Arkansas, there are some conclaves of heavy gopism although most of that district will go pretty firmly for Kerry.

The tricks will be the district in Eastern Arkansas and the one that encompasses most of south Arkansas. Those districts will go Kerry but the key will be turnout. The cities in the northwest are generally larger so the rural turnout will have to be big.

It could go either way.

:shrug:

[poliguru]

24. Just was in CO

I was amazed at all the Kerry signs I saw. And people get a funny look on their faces when you talk about Bush-their faces harden and they're eyes glaze over, like they just can't believe the man. CO definitely can be won, as well as AZ and NM. NV I doubt, though.

[rockymountaindem]

27. Where in CO?

I live in Colorado Springs, which is... well... I think you get my point.

[poliguru]

28. All over

My fiance is from Castle Rock.

But we drove to Happy Canyon/Castle Rock from Wyoming through Denver, then went to Gunnison, then to Glenwood Springs, then Idaho Springs (for some BeauJo's, ya know?), then back to Happy Canyon.

We kept meaning to get to the Garden of the Gods over near you, but the weather didn't cooperate.

[DaveinMD]

29. Nevada

is more likely than Colorado, though Colorado is becoming more likely. Colorado springs is a tough area for Dems. Other areas in the state are much more competitive. Lots of independent votes in Colorado are ripe for the taking.

[poliguru]

30. Not with Vegas

The vast majority of people who live in NV live in Vegas. I have family there, and the general consensus there (excepting my family - bless them!) is that they all think someday they will hit the jackpot, and they don't want the govt taking their money. How stupid is that? Voting because of gambling income you'll probably never have.

[DaveinMD]

31. the polling out of Nevada

shows a very close race. Nevada has elected Democratic Senators, one of which is the Democratic Whip right now. Its a very competitive state for Democrats.

[Arugula Latte]

32. Colorado Springs: The 5 Cs

Cowboys, Christians, Cadets, Conservatives, Crazies (as in extreme-o fundies)

[DaveSZ]

33. It looks like the libertarian guy is draining Bush support

in New Mexico.