Did Hillary overtake Obama in the popular yesterday?

[Buddyblazon]

I heard a couple of Hillary people saying that this was going to happen yesterday with her big win in WV.

I don't know where to find the estimated popular vote (because we don't know the exact numbers in caucus states)...so I don't know if they're prognosticating, in fact, came true.

Someone's gotta know.


Though...this is a race of delegates and it doesn't matter the popular vote...I know people will be using it for their arguments.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. No. She gained appx. 120K in the popular totals.

Still back half a million.

[rurallib]

do you count Florida and Michigan?

[AllentownJake]

2. Sure

If you subtract all Obama's wins in caucus states because they don't matter and you count Michigan and Florida and assume that everyone in Michigan hates him and wouldn't vote for him and 0 is an appropriate measure of his support there.

[Hepburn]

3. No...

...she did not come close on this...unless one counts the populations of Bosnia and Outer Mongolia.

[SwampG8r]

4. there is no popular vote when there are caucus votes

thats the bottom line
and no she didnt even bring the voters out in WV worst count in years
they voted for her but more stayed home than in recent years
and she didnt hit bills must have 80% either

[Buddyblazon]

7. So...

her "must have" number gets higher now? Am I correct? (Rhetorical question).

How many PLEDGED DELEGATES left? How many is she behind by?

How many SUPER DELEGATES left? How many is she behind by?

[Kittycat]

9. Go to realclearpolitics.com

[Buddyblazon]

12. RCP has him...

17 away from 1900 in total delegates.

Anybody want to guess when he will hit 1900? I'm going to say by the weekend.


Anybody want to guess when he will hit 2000? I'm not going to attempt that one.

[SwampG8r]

14. i think before friday he will be there

for the news cycle over the weekend

[saltpoint]

5. In Denver, the delegates will decide.

Senator Obama will arrive in Denver with the most delegates.

Senator Clinton has lost the nomination.

[Buddyblazon]

8. I'm a stage hand in Denver...

I'm going to make a boatload of cash from the convention.

WOO HOO!!!!!

[mmonk]

6. No.

They want to count Puerto Rico in the metric (which doesn't vote in the General Election) and MI and Florida as is and to knee cap the one winning to have the SDs overturn the results so far. Also, Caucus states populations don't count towards popular vote. This is a win at any cost with any argument campaign for them.

[mohc]

10. Depends

Without Florida or Michigan: Obama leads by 673,062
With Florida and Michigan: Obama leads by 49,981
With Florida and Michigan, but without caucus estimates: Clinton leads by 60,241

The latter being a completely absurd metric, including non-binding contests while excluding binding contests.

[graycem]

11. Nope.

When they tell you that, it's because they're counting MI/FL, AS IS, giving him NONE from Michigan, and NOT counting caucus states. She may be able to fool her supporters, but she won't be fooling the Superdelegates.

[Buddyblazon]

13. But he wasn't even on the ballot in MI...

how could they use HER popular vote count from MI...when he had zero because he wasn't included in the contest?

[FlaGranny]

16. Indeed, how could they?

But they are.

[graycem]

21. Because

many things they do defy logic. Whatever it takes to appear she's winning from at least SOME angle. That's what makes the Michigan argument even more absurd. She doesn't even want him to have the "uncommitted" votes. It doesn't matter, because it's not true, and like I said, she's only fooling her supporters. Giving them false hope. The SD's know the real score. :shrug:

[canadian_is_cold]

15. nope

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[MaineDem]

17. Impossible to tell

There is no way to accurately count national popular vote.

[redqueen]

18. If you include the two states that broke the rules that people in her campaign agreed to...

AND just don't count any of the voters in caucus states whose state party leaders AREN'T complete and total morons... then yes.

In reality, though, no.

[Apollo11]

19. The popular vote is pretty much tied at this point

The best available numbers for the national popular vote is on Real Clear Politics.

17,014,911 people already voted for Barack Obama (47.7%)

16,934,160 people already voted for Hillary Clinton (47.5%)

The difference is 80,000 votes (0.22% of the total).

These numbers include all of the caucus States plus Florida and Michigan.

In Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot, 238,168 people voted "uncommitted".

Even if you give all those votes to Obama - it is still relatively close.

[Mz Pip]

20. If you just count

the states she won, then yes, she's ahead.

[Occam Bandage]

22. No. She's still behind. They counted FL and MI, and discounted caucus attendance.