Sabato: Bush needs a miracle to win

[quaoar]

Sabato was speaking to one of the most conservative organizations in the state of Alabama.

http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1091958403119330.xml

POINT CLEAR - Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.

``Kerry would win very handily," said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Sabato, speaking at the BCA's governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances.

``He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.

[Stew225]

1. I suspect that "miracle" is a euphemism for

terra attack.

[acmavm]

3. Terra attack coupled with the declaration of martial law and suspension

of the elections.

[JuniperLea]

4. or hijacked votes!

does he dare try that again? well, he is dumb enough to believe he could get away with it. even though so many people are seeing right through the terror attack manipulation.

[flpoljunkie]

16. I, too, am far more concerned about the election being hijacked by hackers

hacking into the election software and leaving no trace--than I am about a terrorist strike, altho one cannot certainly not be discounted.

If Al Qaeda could strike, they would. Who knows how the public would react to a terrorist attack? They may be pissed that Bush has not adequately prepared the nation for such an attack.

[Raya]

5. I don't think Rove is on his knees. He makes his owm miracles.

[grytpype]

9. Oh, please.

Rove is not a genius. He lost the 2000 election, so James Baker and the Five Traitors had to save Duhbya. Rove is losing this election as well. His "knockout punch" to Kerry -- going negative really early, something that incumbents are never supposed to do -- failed to knock Kerry out.

He's evil and there's nothing that is beneath him, but that's about all you can say for him.

[Cha]

26. I read that it worked for Dukakis but Kerry

ain't Dukakis as they are readily finding out.

[glitch]

31. This cannot be repeated enough

He sinks lower than most in order to win - this does not make him smart, just ruthless. Like a street thug. May look successful to the lesser thugs, for awhile anyway.
Not a good longterm strategy. In 2000 too many people didn't know his true nature. Now - he's definitely past his sell-by date.

[Lerkfish]

33. well stated.

just because his dirty tricks are dirtier than anyone else's doesn't make him more clever or more effective, just more dirty.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. I'm With You....

NT

[Cha]

25. Like that freakin' "miracle" they got on

Sept 11, 2001.

[didntvote4shrub]

2. The Supremes don't qualify..

..as the "last miracle?"

[Cha]

27. Yeah, they do.

The guy just didn't want to admit it.

[uconnyc]

6. This is just BS

All * needs is a Kerry slipup that the media will latch onto until November or a terror attack/capture of Bin Laden.

[Gman]

8. It may be just me, but

I fail to see how capturing OBL will put people back to work. That should be the Dem's response as well as it being too little too late.

[WiseMen]

7. Sabato has a great election forecast model. Hope DNC have

a counter-miracle operations going or some miracles of own.

[buycitgo]

11. he's really a douchebag; pug shill, disguised as independent

analyst

real RW jagoff, as well as superdork

my old GF knew him at UVA

he was not a very popular fellow; very "creepy"

chicks, unlike with Bill Murray, in Stripes, did not "dig him"

just havin' a little fun

it's TWUE, though

[RichV]

15. He probably didn't mind chicks not digging him

He's gay.

[buycitgo]

21. he wasn't then; at least out

GF never mentioned it, anyway

will get some details; this was almost thirty years ago

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. I agree, and I hate when people play this phony game of pretending

to be non-partisan.

[buycitgo]

22. no KIDDING, with that whorehouse

soon as I saw Annenberg, I knew it was BS

was surprised that Adam Clymer was part of them now.

Annenberg family was just a more socially acceptable version of the Coreleones.

talk about RIGHT WING, too

[gratuitous]

10. Hmmm, perhaps

But isn't it odd that George W. Bush doesn't have to give the speech of his life at the RNC? You know, like John Kerry just had to, had to, had to do?

Of course, when Kerry did knock it out of the park, George sent Tom Ridge out to fumble through another terror alert warning (since the "capture" of an Al Qaeda operative by the ever-faithful Pakistanis didn't quite do the trick).

[elperromagico]

12. Bush never has to give the speech of his life.

The pundits will call it a great speech regardless. MSNBC will drag Peggy Noonan out of mothballs to pontificate about the "Churchill-like tone" of his speech. And of course, Fox will call it a "stroke of genius" or something similarly idiotic.

All Bush has to do is avoid shitting on the floor and he will be hailed as this generation's Lincoln. And if he receives nothing more than a half-point bounce, the media will praise it as "a huge bounce for the President."

[PROGRESSIVE1]

13. "October Suprise"

[flpoljunkie]

14. Excellent catch. Worth reading in its entirety.

Found this part most interesting:

But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.

"Only in a year like this could John Kerry be elected. He can't connect with people. He's way to the left of the American mainstream," Sabato said. ( Sabato, you obviously never went to any of Kerry's Iowa or New Hampshire town meetings)

"We're right on the verge of electing someone who I believe will be the most liberal president in American history, at least on social and cultural issues." (I could not be more pleased with the prospect of John Kerry becoming our next President)

Sabato said Bush's best chance to win is to focus on "hot-button social issues" and try to paint Kerry as too liberal on issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion and the death penalty.

______________________

Ah, the Grand Old Party, they really know how to play "down and dirty" to win-- the party of Lincoln, changed forever by the thugs who now run it. Too bad, McCain doesn't have the guts to confront George W. Bush--instead he is traveling with him
this week--including my home state of Florida.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

18. Gotta love the reasoning. Voters legitimately hate us for the mortal sin

we have inflicted upon the world, IraqNam.

So let's flog gay marriage and thump us some bibles! It's our only hope! YEEEEHAAAAA!

[Cha]

28. In other words.. keep lying his mf heading off.

[KharmaTrain]

17. Sabato: The WIngnut "Historian"

Whenever Faux or CNNservative needs someone to spin established historians like Douglas Brinkley or Doris Kearns Goodwin, they roll out Sabato.

Since Ken Burns "legitimized" him in his Civil War series, Sabato somehow went from being an expert on Manassas I & II to Bill Clinton's penis.

But this is telling if he's out there trying to scare the base. The key here is the base...not reaching out to outside groups. This regime is running on fear...and is fearing the electorate. That's dangerous.

[Aunt Anti-bush]

19. I'm sure Jeb would love to hand him another "miracle".

eom.

[bringbackfdr]

23. These people will do anything

I'd love to think Kerry has this in the bag; common sense says he will obliterate the smirking dimwit in the debates, which will only solidify his support. But the people around Bush are completely without any semblance of a moral compass and would do anything to keep him in power. They also are far more intelligent than the puppet-in-chief, which makes them all the more dangerous.
I won't sleep well until Shrub concedes - if he even has that much grace.

[Cha]

29. As some have pointed out...this is war.

And I think the Dems realize that..

[Jack Rabbit]

24. The Truman "miracle"

If poll taking were as sophistocated in 1948 as it is now, Truman would not have pulled an upset. The polls would have accuarately projected him to win.

If Bush is shown to be going down before the election and pulls an "upset" -- by mush better-than-expected showings in districts using computerized voting -- I won't believe it.

[Cha]

30. Like chuck hagel did back in the day?

[enigmatic]

32. Yep; if W's behind in all the polls..

by 5-8 points and somehow he pulls out a "win" w/o an OBL capture or such, I won't believe it for a second..

[zestfolly]

34. Why would he need a miracle?

I thought Bush was chosen by Jesus to be president.

[NV1962]

35. So when will they thaw OBL's carcass to parade it around? (n/t)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Sabato - "Kerry Looks Like A Cross Between Lurch And A Funeral Director"

Did you ever see Sabato....


He couldn't get laid in the proverbial Las Vegas whorehouse with a fist full of fifties.....


There I said it and I feel better....

[Stuckinthebush]

38. It blew me away that this was in the Bham News

Close to it was the article linked here about Jesus being a liberal:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x66765