My second, more revised and updated, Electoral map

[Bombtrack]

* COMBINED SAFE+VERY LIKELY = 179 *
safely Kerry: 168
CA,HI,IL,DC,DE,NJ,NY,CT,RI,MA,VT

very likely Kerry: 11
WA
-----------
swing-state leaning Kerry: 64
OR,NM,MN,MI,PA,ME:

Tossup: 89
NV,WI,IA,MO,OH,WV,FL,NH

swing-state leaning Bush: 64
AZ,CO,AR,TN,VA,NC
-----------
very likely Bush: 27
SD,LA,GA

safely Bush: 115
AK,ID,UT,ND,MT,WY,NE,KS,OK,TX,IN,KY,MS,AL,SC
* COMBINED SAFE+VERY LIKELY = 142 *

[Redneck Socialist]

1. Looks good, thank you

I hope you have the time and inclination to keep this updated throughout the campaign. Of the states that you listed as a tossup I think Kerry will pick up FL, IA, NH, WI. That should be enough to put him over the top.

[Bombtrack]

2. Here's my stripped analysis

Unless he can win BOTH Nevada and West Virginia, he needs to 1 one of these 3 states(because they're probably going to go for him before any of the "orange" states): Missouri, Ohio, or Florida.

Him winning every state we did in 00(not including FL) gives him 260. He needs another 10 to win. Missouri has 11, Ohio has 20, and Florida has 27. Of course this is not some absolute. But if I were a pundit who had to strip the election down to it's most probable, that's what I would say. Either we win Nevada AND West Virginia, or Missouri, or Florida, or Ohio.

[Redneck Socialist]

5. We seem to be thinking along the same lines

I think NH and FL are the two states most likely to come over to Kerry this time around.

[fujiyama]

3. Looks about right

I might classify PA and MI as very likely, and NH, IA and WI as swing states leaning dem (while the polls are very close Kerry has a small lead in both)...

But then again it's not a bad idea to be somewhat conservative when classifying this and this is probably how the campaign is looking at it. None of the states listed as swing leaning for Kerry, swing, or swing leaning for Bush can be taken granted. I think Kerry can pull quite a few of them off.

[kwolf68]

4. Good work ... we should try to keep this going

I listen to West Va NPR on the way to work each morning and West Va is sounding more and more like Kerry-Country from what I am hearing in polls.

Good to keep it "Toss Up", but this is one I would not be surprised if we carried...

Otherwise, your analysis is pretty damn good.

[tedoll78]

6. Call me a skeptic..

but I am convinced that West Virginia and Nevada are the more likely path to victory this year. Ohio, despite all of this effort, still looks ugly (tied at best.. and this is before Bush's alleged bounce), and Florida is always suspect in my mind.

The good news with this scenario? It looks very likely that Kerry will win WV and NV.

[Bombtrack]

7. More likely than what?

[tedoll78]

9. More likely than..

winning either Florida or Ohio.

Ohio residents seem to refuse to learn the lesson of voting against one's own interests. And while Florida looks ripe right now, I am still a bit leery.

Of course, don't construe this as a "we should give-up" message. I still think we should fight like hell for FL and OH, but I also think that WV and NV not being in the same intense media spotlight could help us sneak a victory via these states..

[bushwakker]

14. You analysis is very good

We aren't gonna win FL or OH. Gotta find another way to 270.

[Bombtrack]

15. idiotic, unsubstantiated, and damaging scare tactics

Take this drivle to another thread.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

41. ?

Kind of a weird response to someone's opinion that is, after all, not that far from the mainstream.

Personally, I think we have a decent shot in OH and a weak (but non-zero) shot in FL. But I don't see the justification for the freak out response.

[Bombtrack]

43. Yeah if you go by the rediculous belief that the Florida GOP holds

all the cards, unique to any other state GOP in the country. Such as the GOP governor, legislature, and secretary of State in Ohio, the headquarters of DIEBOLD.

Yeah, they stole the election in 2000, but it wasn't a masterminded type of event. It was a sloppy, do-everything-you-can as-you-go type of fraud, that COULDN'T have taken place if 600 more people had voted for Gore.

This Fix-is-in attitude is wrong and anti-helpful to our cause, and only will lose us votes in the biggest swingstate.

[Zynx]

19. Bullsh!t.

If we win by so much as over a point nationally we win FL and OH. We can't just be writing them off when we have such a good chance of winning them. To do so leaves us with no margin of error. States generally follow national trends in case you didn't know.

[dolstein]

8. SD and GA

I don't see how South Dakota and Georgia could be anything but safe Bush states. Even if they were theoretically winnable, the fact is that the Kerry campaign won't devote any resources to these states, which ensures that they'll end up in the Bush column.

[Big Al from WI]

16. South Dakota--

Who is going to vote for Daschle and then turn around and vote for Bush?

[ButterflyBlood]

17. people who like the ag pork he brings in

it's strange yes, but in 2000 ND above voted for * in a landslide and reelected Kent Conrad in a landslide, in fact Conrad did BETTER than *. SD is pretty similar. So strange as it sounds a good portion of SD will be voting for both Daschle and *.

I will say this though, all 4 Senators from the Dakotas are very smart campaigners. They know how to run in their states well.

[Fone Book]

28. I remember reading something...

It said that the South Dakota GOP was disgusted that the republican state had two democratic senators.

[Bombtrack]

29. SD has an indy minded electorate

[ButterflyBlood]

18. Well Kerry might be spending some time on the Sioux Falls media market

Considering Sioux Falls provides most of the media for southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. But it won't be enough to cut down on his margin of loss in the lost cause western half of SD, and since it would make more sense to hit the population centers of the mentioned states, I doubt there will be much in Sioux Falls, not to mention that part of Iowa is the most right wing part of the state and actually makes most of the Deep South look liberal, and no, this is not an exaggeration.

[Bombtrack]

23. You'd be amazed how much closer GA would be with an innovative GOTV

effort. The state has the biggest black influx and growth of any in the country over the last 15 years, with an even higher rate since 2000, and it also has the second LOWEST turnout in the country. I'm not saying it's a swingstate. But it is not in the same category as SC or OK or UT

[Awsi Dooger]

30. That was my only problem with the analysis

South Dakota and Georgia are absolutely solid for Bush. In fact, both of them will have far greater margins, in favor of Bush, than other states which are listed as safe for either candidate.

[Bombtrack]

37. Have you even LOOKED at Georgia polls?

Bush hovers at 48-49, Kerry in the low 40's. You're just wrong that there are any "dark" red states up there that are in that place in the polls.

[rucky]

10. CT is solid Kerry?

I thought they leaned repug.

:shrug:

[Yupster]

11. Connecticutt leaned Republican

from the Civil War to the 1980's. Not since then.

[NewJeffCT]

21. No way - Kerry is up by 15+ points

Gore destroyed Bush here in 2000 as well, & Clinton won in '92 and '96...

[Yupster]

12. My analysis

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Florida.

If either guy wins three of the four, he's in.

If it's 2-2, we're looking at another Gore- Bush cliffhanger.

In trivia news, the four beige southern states are the exact same four states that joined the Confederacy after Fort Sumpter. I thought I was looking at a history textbook for a second there.

[fujiyama]

31. Interesting fact

You're the DU resident military historian.

[bushwakker]

13. I've come to the conclusion that JK needs to get to 270 without

Florida or Ohio. He won't win either. He must win the Gore states, NH, WV and either AZ, NV, TN or AR.

[Zynx]

20. That's bunk.

We can't write off Florida and Ohio. What the hell's the matter with you? If we do that we have no margin for error. Besides, we have good chances in both states. Your strategy loses.

[Bombtrack]

22. Thank you. These people are doing Bush's work for him

and no, I'm not saying they're plants. Just misguided and ignorantly defeatist.

[fujiyama]

32. While I would like another way

to the 270 (because I'm a bit leary of the fraud factor in both states), it would be incredibly foolish and idiotic to neglect the 47 combined electoral votes.

Kerry is smart and has his lawyers ready...and I'm sure he's ready to move if there is any indication of fraud.

There is no reason Kerry shouldn't be able to take Florida. He's polling better there than he is in Minnesotta! Many factors favor dems including demographics - many hispanics are dissapointed with Bush and there is a great opportunity.

I agree about NV, WV, and NH...but I think it'll be tough to get AZ.

[DemWitch]

24. I would have NM in the Kerry very likely light blue.

My Mom and Step-Dad live outside of Santa Fe and are very active politically, and from what they've seen and said, it's going to be a blue state.

[DemWitch]

25. and sorry, I forgot... Excellent Job!!!

I did a scenario, long since forgotten now, that had Bush and *A Democrat* tied. It involved New Hampshire, Nevada, and Arizona. I was like oh shit... but that was a while ago, during the first leg of the primaries.

[sleipnir]

33. Perhaps, but Santa Fe is an anomaly politically in NM.

It's a liberal bastion, whilst the rest of the state tends to be more of a 50-50 split, but who knows this time around.

I'm not questioning your parents observations, only expressing that the state is quite politically complicated. I lived in Santa Fe for about 4 months a couple years ago and I got a good sense of the political oddity that is New Mexico.

I feel that Kerry should still focus attention in the state to assure a victory. It could be a mistake if Kerry writes off NM as a win this early in the campaign.

[sleipnir]

34. Again, Bombtrack, Nice Job! Keep this up, this should be front page stuff

Ahhh, I see you now have NJ solid Blue :evilgrin: I knew it was only a matter of time!! No "Suggestions" this time, it looks exactly as I see the race to be "if the election were held today" (as much as I hate that phrase.)

[Bombtrack]

39. Sorry if I go by polls and not your parents

Don't mean to sound snarky, but I wasn't sure whether to keep in in the yellow much less light blue.

[Hawkeye-X]

26. Colorado is now officially tossup.

With the battle between Salazar and Coors, and 3 to 1 Democratic voted yesterday in the primaries, it is more and more likely that it could turn to Kerry's favor. He has visited Colorado three times, all with positive numbers, and Kerry is already within the MOE of the polling here in Colorado lately. Of course, Kerry is a native of Colorado, born in Aurora, CO at Fitzsimmons Army Medical Center (defunct).

Hawkeye-X

[Bombtrack]

27. I really don't think a big turnout for the dem primary trumps the fact

That most of the public professional polling firms haven't even been polling CO. Meaning the internals are probably that bad for Kerry and that good for Bush. Bush was at either 49 or 48 percent in almost all the polls prior

[Leilani]

35. That is a terrific map & thank you for your effort....

I have my own electoral map, which I constantly play with, & I agree with you almost completely.

I would give Ga & S Dak to Bush...

I read yesterday that Kerry will not contest Arkansas...I hope this is not true...between Clinton, Wes Clark, & 2 Dem Senators, it seems it would be doable.

I also like the fact that you are looking at this in a conservative way...better to be cautious.

About a week or 2 after the Repub Convention, the polls should tell us a lot.

[sandnsea]

36. I'd switch AZ & MO

I think MO is more likely to go Bush than AZ right now. Any reason I shouldn't think that? I'd also have Wisconsin green. Other than that, looks about right to me. Those three are just judgment calls, the numbers are pretty close.

Have to get those undecideds.

[Bombtrack]

38. "Any reason I shouldn't think that?" No, not if you look at the polls.

Missouri:

Date,   Polling Co. Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin 

6/30/04 Rasmussen        LV 5.0% Bush 48% Kerry 44% Bush +4 

7/ 8/04 SurveyUSA    755 LV 4.0% Bush 48% Kerry 46% Bush +2 

7/20/04 Market R.I.  600 RV 4.0% Bush 44% Kerry 46% Kerry +2 

7/22/04 Research2000 802 LV:
 Nader not an option -      4.0% Bush 45% Kerry 48% Kerry +3 
 Nader an option -          4.0% Bush 45% Kerry 47% Kerry +2 

7/22/04 Gallup Link  636 LV:
 Nader not an option -      5.0% Bush 48% Kerry 48% Push 
 Nader an option -          5.0% Bush 47% Kerry 47% Push 

7/31/04 Rasmussen        LV 5.0% Bush 50% Kerry 46% Bush +4 

Missouri Likely voters Zogby Interactive: 
Date    MOE Republican Democrat  Margin 
5/24/04 4.3% Bush 43.9% Kerry 47.2%  Kerry +3.3 
6/ 6/04 2.7% Bush 48.6% Kerry 47.6%  Bush +1.0 
6/21/04 3.1% Bush 48.6% Kerry 47.9%  Bush +0.7% 
7/10/04 3.3% Bush 46.8% Kerry 50.1%  Kerry +3.3% 
7/23/04 3.9% Bush 48.1% Kerry 48.8%  Kerry +0.7% 
7/30/04 3.2% Bush 48.2% Kerry 48.8%  Kerry +0.6%  
(Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of
respondants, and as such are highly suspect.) 
----------------------------------------------
Arizona:

Date    Polling Co. Type MOE Republican Democrat  Margin 

2/19/04 SurveyUSA   RV   4.3% Bush 52% Kerry 44%  Bush +8 

2/22/04 AZ St. U. 430 RV 4.0% Bush 44% Kerry 46%  Dem +2 

3/18/04 SurveyUSA 634 LV 4.0% Bush 51% Kerry 42%  Bush +9 

4/26/04 AZ St. U. 410 RV 5.0% Bush 41% Kerry 38%  Bush +3 

5/4/04 Behavior Research Center: 
Nader not option- 555 RV 4.0% Bush 46% Kerry 42%  Bush +4 
Nader an option-  555 RV 4.0% Bush 45% Kerry 37%  Bush +8 

Date    Polling Co. Type MOE Republican Democrat  Margin 

5/23/04 AZ St. U. 377 RV 5.0% Bush 43% Kerry 38%  Bush +5 

6/13/04 Market S. 600 LV 4.0% Bush 44% Kerry 41%  Bush +3 

6/27/04 AZ St. U. 400 RV 5.0% Bush 47% Kerry 35%  Bush +12 

7/07/04 BehaviorRe.C. RV 5.0% Bush 48% Kerry 36%  Bush +12 

7/14/04 SurveyUSA 767 LV 4.0% Bush 53% Kerry 41%  Bush +12 

7/18/04 AZ St. U. 400 RV 5.0% Bush 41% Kerry 42%  Kerry +1 

8/01/04 Market S. 601 LV 4.0% Bush 48% Kerry 45%  Bush +3 

Key:
AZ St. U. = Arizona State University
Market S. = Market Solutions
BehaviorRe.C.
          = Behavior Research Center
-----------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin:

Date    Polling Co. Type   MOE Republican Democrat Margin 

6/8/04  LA Times    694 RV 4.0% Bush 44%  Kerry 42% Bush +2
 
6/23/04 Badger Poll 504 Adults:
Nader an option            4.0% Bush 46% Kerry 42%  Bush +4 

7/12/04 C.F.S.R.A.  575 RV
two man race -             4.0% GB 48.4% JFK 45.9%  Bush +2.5 
four man race -            4.0% GB 46.1% JFK 44.6%  Bush +1.5 

7/13/04 Strategic V.(R) 801 LV
Nader not an option -      4.0% Bush 45% Kerry 48%  Kerry +3 
Nader an option -          4.0% Bush 45% Kerry 48%  Kerry +3 

7/15/04 A.R.G.      600 LV 4.0% Bush 42% Kerry 48%  Kerry +6 

8/2/04 Strategic V.(R) 801 LV
Nader not an option -      3.0% Bush 46% Kerry 49%  Kerry +3 
Nader an option -          4.0% Bush 46% Kerry 47%  Kerry +1 

[Bombtrack]

40. Bump

[DrMath]

42. I've got one too!

That's a really nice map. I have one too:

http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/

[Bombtrack]

44. You've got Maine to the right of New Hampshire?