THE MATH Daily Widget – Sunday, June 1 – Wigand +0.00 – Total -0.50

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Sunday, June 1 – Wigand +0.00 – Total -0.50








The total Intrade average took a big leap for Obama today, leaping almost five points. Michigan lost some of its gain yesterday, down 4.50, while Pennsylvania crosses above the 70 mark for the first time this year, up 2.00. Iowa gains 2.50, becoming the bluest of the swing states again.

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ There were no changes in the Wigand Electoral Average today. The red states stayed red, and the blue states stayed blue.



^ Gains: Iowa +2.50, North Carolina +1.00, Pennsylvania +2.00
Losses: Indiana -0.50, Michigan -4.50, Ohio -0.50, South Carolina -0.50



^ 538.com and EV.com hold steady from yesterday, while my own projection for total electoral votes falls four points from yesterday, due to a new poll in Washington that reduced the overall strength of projection. Old polls and polls with double-digit undecideds reduce the strength of projection. Washington's new poll shows a large number of undecideds.


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Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[fight4my3sons]

1. k&r

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning!

Thanks f4m3s! :donut: :hi:

[helderheid]

3. Rec 2 for teh hope!

:rofl: :yourock:

[phrigndumass]

4. Teh hope, u caint stop et, iz arryving!

:pals: :hi:

[helderheid]

5. I can haz teh hope?

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. U can haz teh hope, and a cheezburgr!

[helderheid]

9. U can haz 5th rec? Pleez?

[ORDem]

6. Ahhhh, now that I've had my morning statistics fix, I can get that 2nd cup of java. :)

:dem:

[phrigndumass]

7. Good morning ORDem! I'm on my second cup as well

:donut: I would inject it intravenously if I could ... and drag the IV cart everywhere. :hi:

[helderheid]

10. kicking for one more rec

[phrigndumass]

11. It worked! =)

:loveya: LOL

[helderheid]

14. TEH HOPE - I HAZ IT!

:loveya:

[helderheid]

15. k

[dzika]

12. K&R n/t

[Pab Sungenis]

13. Comments looking at these maps.

(1) We will never win Indiana. There's hardly a more Republican state in the nation, and no Democrat has won it since Johnson.

(2) Virginia may be close, but I don't think we'll win it.

(3) EV.com has us losing Michigan. That's not going to happen.

Still, I think we're going to win this one.

[MadBadger]

16. Indiana is the most Republican? What about Utah?