August polls vs. Nov. results

[Cocoa]

Interesting numbers in the Chicago Tribune...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-0408150365aug15,1,5931560.story?coll=chi-electionsprint-hed

1972
Richard Nixon (R) (Winner)
George McGovern (D)
AUGUST LEAD: 26%
VICTORY MARGIN: 23%

1976
Jimmy Carter (D) (Winner)
Gerald Ford (R)
AUGUST LEAD: 22%
VICTORY MARGIN: 2%

1980
Ronald Reagan (R) (Winner)
Jimmy Carter (D)
AUGUST LEAD: 16%
VICTORY MARGIN: 10%

1984
Ronald Reagan (R) (Winner)
Walter Mondale (D)
AUGUST LEAD: 12%
VICTORY MARGIN: 18%

1988
George Bush (R) (Winner)
Michael Dukakis (D)
AUGUST DEFICIT: 7%
VICTORY MARGIN: 8%

1992
Bill Clinton (D) (Winner)
George Bush (R)
AUGUST LEAD: 12%
VICTORY MARGIN: 6%

1996
Bill Clinton (D) (Winner)
Bob Dole (R)
AUGUST LEAD: 12%
VICTORY MARGIN: 9%

2000
George W. Bush (R) (Winner)
Al Gore (D)
AUGUST DEFICIT: 1%
VICTORY MARGIN: -0.5%*

2004
August poll
Bush: 46%
Kerry: 45%

* Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote.

[Tarheelhombre]

1. What August 2004 poll are they talking about?

ONly one poll shows Bush ahead of Kerry

[papau]

4. Sources: The Gallup Organization, Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S.

Sources: The Gallup Organization, Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections, PollingReport.com

[Poiuyt]

2. They are using Gallup poll numbers

Many on this site claim that the Gallup Poll is biased towards the right. Has it always been that way, or were they once more balanced?

[Democat]

3. They picked the only poll in the country showing Bush ahead?

That damn liberal media!

[mzmolly]

5. The opening remarks for the data are as follows:

Some polls show that Democratic nominees John Kerry and John Edwards got a little bump after the Democratic National Convention, but the real measure of their contest with President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney is to come.

Big leads in August can translate into big victories in November, a look at polls across recent history shows. And the tighter the race in the dog days, the closer the margin come November.

In other words, this race is close and no body knows what will happen in November.

:crazy:

Too close to waste a vote on Nader if ya ask me. :hi:

[JPJones]

6. I would guess that both conventions would have

already occurred by the time these polls were taken.

The strategery of keeping the powder dry now will be fine as long as the all out assault starts by the end of the RNC.

[Yupster]

7. I guess what these numbers are saying is

there's not much of a way to tell whether the August numbers mean anything or not. It seems sometimes they do and sometimes they don't.