Bush Screwed in the South!!

[Dob Bole]

In 2000, Bush put all of his eggs in one basket- the South. As a result, he was the first Republican to win the "Solid South" in a non-landslide election.

Not so this year.

The latest data, which I have taken from www.pollingreport.com and electoral-vote.com reveals this info about these states, which Bush won in 2000:

Leans Bush:

40 electoral votes

Leans Kerry:

32 electoral votes.

Toss-up:

60 electoral votes.


This equals 40 that Bush has locked, and up to 92 where he's in some trouble. Not very good prospects if you're planning to be reelected!

On edit: I revised the above data after discovering that Strategic Vision's revision of its own Georgia poll puts Georgia 1% out of the margin of error- Georgia is a toss-up state. Thanks to RubyDuby for providing this information.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. A correction if I may..

Bush was never elected..

[Dob Bole]

2. Ah, didn't say he was...

I just said that he won the Solid South in an election. An election took place, he just didn't rightfully win it.

On edit: yes I did, at the end. Oops.

It was my other personality's fault.

[StopTheMorans]

3. key word in your last sentence: "reelected"

:)

[Dob Bole]

4. Oh yeah! Um...well...."Shove it!"

No, I didn't say that either. :)

[Kathy in Cambridge]

7. Should be "reSelected"

;-)

[Brotherjohn]

5. I was thinking the same thing looking at the latest Electoral Vote...

... projection at http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Not only is he losing Florida, but the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia are slipping away.

I know Bush still leads in all but Florida, and that most of Kerry's southern strength lies in this electoral-vote rich state. But it seems to me, just the other day, this map had those other southern states as at least "Weak Bush" (now they're "barely Bush") and Florida as "barely Kerry" (now it's "weak Kerry").

It seems the ground is shifting in the South.

[Dob Bole]

6. West Virginia too, so far....

One thing that really surprises me is that Bush is leading in Kentucky, considering the amount of Democratic voters there. But I don't know if a lot of polls are being taken in kentucky, anyway.

[olddem43]

13. Ky has gone Repug in the last 10 or 20 years.

Repug gov., 2 repug senators. We are probably going to lose Ky.

[lcordero]

22. Maybe not

A Democrat won a congressional seat in a special election in KY, in the last year. That has never happened before in any southern state.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/17/elec04.h.kentucky.ap/

[lcordero]

23. South Dakota looks somewhat promising too

A Democrat(Stephanie Herseth) won Janklow's seat

[JohnKleeb]

16. Johnny Eds should help there

btw I think we're gonna do pretty damn good in the south this year, can you call Virginia a democratic state :D, not yte but we're almost there.

[RubyDuby in GA]

9. Please oh please

shift here in GA. I'm sick and tired of not recognizing my state anymore.

On a supergreat note, I have to opportunity to meet Senator Edwards today. I will try hard not to embarrass myself :bounce:

[michigandem2]

14. what about AZ?

do we still have a change in AZ?

[Dob Bole]

17. Yes, but it's in the Southwest

Still listed as 'Barely Bush.'

[RubyDuby in GA]

8. Possibly good news about Georgia

And I quote:

GOP Firm Releases Misweighted Poll, Accurate Weighting Puts Bush Under 50% in Georgia

(Atlanta) This week, Strategic Vision, a Republican political consulting firm, released a poll showing President Bush leading John Kerry in Georgia 52-43, and claiming that a coming Bush landslide in Georgia could help Republicans in down ballot races. A closer look at the poll conducted July 30 – August 2, however, shows that Strategic Vision underweighted the African-American vote by at least 20%. Strategic Vision admitted that it weighted the expected African-American percentage of the electorate to 18%. According to the Secretary of State’s office, however, the African American percentage of the electorate has been closer to 23% in each of the last three general elections (22.9% in 1998, 23.2% in 2000, 22.6% in 2002).

As Senator Kerry can expect overwhelming support from African-American voters, a correct weighting of the poll shows a very close Presidential contest in Georgia, with President Bush leading Senator Kerry by only 4 points, approximately 49.5% to 45.5%. Any universally known incumbent whose vote is less than 50% is in serious jeopardy of losing a re-election bid. President Bush’s 4% point lead is only slightly outside the poll’s margin of error of 3%.

includes alternative results weighting the African-American percentage of the electorate to the numbers in the 1998, 2000 and 2002 general elections. It also has alternative results presuming that Senator Kerry receives 90%, 92% or 95% of the African-American vote.

“Despite Republican claims to the contrary, the Kerry-Edwards ticket is competitive in Georgia,” said Emil Runge, Communications Director for the Democratic Party of Georgia. “Georgia Democrats are working hard to improve education, fight crime and hold down taxes for working families, and we expect that to lead to victory for us up and down the ticket in 2004.”

Ok, here's a link:
http://www.kerrywingeorgia.org/viewnews.jsp?seqnews=15%20%20%20&rtnto=index.jsp

[Dob Bole]

10. That's what I thought...

Kerry/Edwards are only advertising in South Georgia, when the election is already closer here than states they are in, namely Louisiana.

Edwards needs to get over here. Also, I think that Denise Majette could help their ticket (especially if she has massive DU support. :)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. One thing I wouldn't expect to see

is massive support on DU for Majette.

[RubyDuby in GA]

24. Anything is possible

Again, she wasn't my first choice, but she is a Democrat with a pretty decent voting record in the US House. If she can get some name recognition, she might be able to pull out a victory. Also, with her on the ballot, a lot of women and a lot of African Americans have a reason to go vote. And after hearing the good news on NPR this morning that the overwhelming majority of African American voters (94% nationwide) will be voting Democrat, this can only help, because people familiar with GA voting knows that the metro Atlanta area can counter the rest of the state. If we can get huge turnouts in the metro area, and keep the rest of the state that typically votes Democrat (Savannah and the southwestern corner of the state), we can win.

[Brotherjohn]

11. The Strategic Vision poll in FL had Bush 6-8 pts higher than other...

... recent FL polls (ARG and Quinnipiac).

He was tied with Kerry in the latest SV poll, but behind by 6-8 pts in the others.

Take that for what it's worth when analyzing Strategic Vision polls.

[iwantmycountryback]

30. Southern states

Kerry is really close in a lot of Southern conservative states. North Carolina and Virginia are certainly in play, and I think he'll get Florida (if the votes are all counted). Georgia now seems to be close as well and Tennessee is extremely tigh. I don't think we should worry too much about getting Mississippi and Alabama though.;)

[Dob Bole]

31. Haha...nope.

We could have had Alabama, if the Bamacrats hadn't changed the law to accomodate Bush on the ballot. But I guess they did what they had to do.

Mississippi will give Bush his highest percentage in the country, except for the Mormon states of the West.

[Dob Bole]

15. I sent a correction to electoral-vote.com

Thanks for the info. Georgia will look good as "barely Bush."

If others can email the Votemaster, he might notice it faster.

[RubyDuby in GA]

19. Thank you

I honestly believe if we work our asses off here doing great GOTV work, we can squeak by. Especially since the Repubs here are starting to quietly fight amongst themselves.
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html


Off to see little Johnny Edwards....sweet.

[yellowcanine]

21. Georgia is a possibility in a landslide but I think Kerry should focus on

Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina in the South. Campaign through there with the Big Dog and watch those states flip to Kerry. Forays into Georgia could be done in conjunction with visits to Florida. Dare we dream of an East Coast AND a West Coast Sweep? I know - that is probably irrational - OK How about everything East and West Coast except South Carolina?

[stellanoir]

12. Don't get overly confident folks. . .

watch out for those flying nefarious EVM's. Please encourage anyone you know in swing states and the south to check in with their Secretaries of State to ascertain as to whether they have non verifiable voting equipment. If they do, consider strongly suggesting that they vote by absentee ballots. It's our best hope.

[Jack Rabbit]

18. Correction

Bush didn't win the solid South in 2000. He lost Florida and stole it from Gore.

He won't be re-elected. If he wins, it will be the first time.

[Dob Bole]

25. Ruby, where are you going to meet Edwards?

[rullery]

26. Republican Convention Ahead

While these current polls are encouraging, we can expect some change during and after the Republican Convention. I have no idea what they will come up with to make Bush and Co. look like winners, but let us not underestimate the resourcefulness of the enemy. We will have a much better idea of how things stand after their convention. In other words let us not become complacent, but continue to work hard to get the message out to undecided voters.

[Dob Bole]

27. Zell Miller

If their angle isn't to get Zell Miller to talk about how bad Southern Democrats need to vote for Bush, then they are stupid.

The encouraging thing is that they ARE stupid. But I'm not so sure that Zell is.

[RubyDuby in GA]

32. Super sorry about not getting back to you

Saw him yesterday at the rally and the event afterwards in College Park, GA.

You'd think that the VP candidate coming to town would warrant a front page blurb, but no....not in our local rag. Then the article they did write quoted Republicans. Damn I hate the media in this town. Stupid Republicans.

...snip...

Edwards wowed voters like Scott Reed of Norcross, who said the North Carolina senator "outlined something much better than what we have now," vowing, "I'm going to do everything I can to make sure Democrats are elected."

But Republicans wasted no time in accusing Edwards of being out of touch with Georgia voters.

"Georgians should look past the slick rhetoric and ask John Edwards how much he and John Kerry plan to raise taxes on Georgia's working families," said Alec Poitevint, chairman of the Georgia Republican Party.


http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/election/0804georgia/17edwards.html

[Dob Bole]

33. At least you got to see him...

the only (non-1976) candidate to come to our part of Georgia was Howard Dean, even though I've supported Edwards all along. I guess I should count my blessings, though. If Carter weren't here, we would get nobody.

[RubyDuby in GA]

34. No kidding

I worked on the Dean campaign, and we had a very strong organization here in GA.

And Dean was always available to come here. Said he enjoyed coming here because people were always so happy to see a national candidate Democrat in town.

[Dob Bole]

28. Apologies for all the 'reelected'

But you know what I meant....

[Dob Bole]

29. kick for evening crowd

nt

[Inland]

35. VA, WV, NC, SC, TN all close

see http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Strong Leaning Kerry: 264 EV
Strong Leaning Bush: 155 EV
Too Close to Call: 102 EV
No Polling Data: 17 EV

[ItsMyParty]

36. I've gotta give a gut feeling here though it sickens me to do so

I watched a lot of talk this way on boards regarding the midterms. We looked good and poised and ready to take....and then all of us remember James Carville with the trash can over his head on that fateful night. I give the chances of us winning any of these southern red states (including Florida---in fact most specifically Florida) a zip to zip point 002 chance of winning. We first have to hang on to several midwestern blue states that are hanging by a thread and that's going to be an uphill battle to the end. And then we have to pick off an Ohio or a Missouri. In a word, we aren't heading for any landslide. We have to hold on to what we had in 2000 and we have to add one other. I see nothing in any data on any red state (except maybe NH) that says "we took one away from them". But I very nervously watch numbers on a couple blue states and bite my fingernails to the bone.