Okay, so how much bounce will the RNC get?

[charlyvi]

Be honest now. Don't say how much you WANT them to get, but how much will they REALLY get?

[vivalarev]

1. 1%

[codegreen]

2. they'll DROP by 3 percentage points.

[Langis]

3. Think Bush's SOTU

Now add 1% and that is how much of a bounce they will get.

[charlyvi]

6. Okay, this may not be cool but

enquiring minds want to know. What does SOTU mean?

[Raiden]

11. "State of the Union" n/t

[charlyvi]

14. Okay. I actually knew that.....

but it didn't register with me in the context of your post. I'm just an old fart--but a DEMOCRATIC old fart.

[Ron Green]

4. If they don't get 20% they're screwed.

[charlyvi]

7. Has anyone ever gotten 20%?

That seems like a lot.

[Ron Green]

12. Well, I'm just saying....if it's less than that,

...they'd better worry. A lot.
:cry:

[Bluebear]

5. A HUGE bounce

That's what I want to predict. So afterwards the media can ask "Why no bounce?" like they did to Kerry amidst the weekend "terror" alert that stole the thunder.

[charlyvi]

10. Would the media admit there's no bounce?

Or would they not even mention it?

[Exgeneral]

15. EXPECT A HIGH PROFILE SUPER DUPER PLUS ORANGE ALERT

That way they won't have to talk about it.

If the pubs are true to form, their self assured smug hard right blather will play in Peoria just like it did when Papa Bush had his convention.

IOW, not at all.

Remember how we just looked on in horror at big haired gingham clad country line dancin' bozos and Pat Buchanan scaring the bejeezus out of everyone?

It will be like that. These guys never learn.

[sundancekid]

25. reading my mind ... it's only fair to give generously in return ...

[ikojo]

8. Since the media will be very kind to the pugs

I predict a 15-20% bounce.

No way will the media hold * to the same standard they held Kerry and the Democrats. Another thing that will help is that the culture warriors are going to be kept in the background and not allowed prime time space (they made that mistake in 1992 and wont do it again). Ah-nold and Giuliani are also speaking.

After the pug convention, with all of its 9/11 trappings, the media will be painting shrub as a guarantee winner. The public, hearing that it's a foregone conclusion, will accept it as gospel and may not bother to vote.

Pray for PERFECT weather across the US on Nov 2 so NO ONE has an excuse to stay home.

Heck I took half a day vacation to make sure I get my KERRY vote in.

[charlyvi]

13. America loves an underdog.

We all know that. Do you think that the media's doting on shrub in that case could help Kerry? I mean I would be pissed with a constant TERRA TERRA BUSH* BUSH* incantation. Do you think this could work for us?--albeit in a small way.

[lastknowngood]

9. With the capture of OBL or someone who will be OBL's right hand

man, for the 200th time, I'm thinking 12 to 15 points from the sheeple. Remember the media will be fawning all over the repugs and
giving them 24/7 coverage, and CNN will be playing the saint Bush docu-fantasy they start this weekend.

[Exgeneral]

19. or maybe just Osama's right hand

[AngryAmish]

16. None

The got the freepers, and no one else believes them.

[NWHarkness]

17. None

Fewer people will watch than watched the DNC. Lots of people were curious about Kerry and Edwards, they know Bush and Cheney all too well already.

[noahmijo]

18. I bet they'll actually go down

If the protestors play it right and don't let the violent idiots with no agenda steal the spotlight, if we see more regular folk like waitresses, firemen, even cops, or any other kind of worker come out and talk about how Bush's policies have screwed them it won't look good.

Not to mention I expect Bush to completely burn himself during his speech.

[BillZBubb]

20. 5%

But it won't last.

[Piperay]

21. 20% and

if they don't then their convention was a bust (anyway that's what they claimed about the Democratic convention)!:evilgrin: Really I think they will get about 3% in the short term but in the long term it will drop back to where they are now.

[TheDonkey]

22. Depends on what happends there really, I'd say expect 5-9%

get ready for a tough autumn in this election.

BUT, if events happen where the 9-11 exploitation is uncovered, riots break out due to police harassment, nasty speeches, etc. happen then anything can happen.

[charlyvi]

27. I hope nothing violent erupts.....

I lived in Chicago during the '68 convention. Backfire city.

[Julien Sorel]

23. Historically it's 5% for the incumbent.

But Bush is such a folksy, down home charmer, and his stumbling speaking style is so winning, and the sight of all those freshly scrubbed Republican faces will be so winsome, that if Bush doesn't get at least 10%, it will be a failed convention.

[AlinPA]

24. With almost 100% of the media on their side, probably a big bounce.

10 points or more.

[Kahuna]

26. If we were smart we would beat them down so bad before the

convention that bush would get a negative bounce.

[gristy]

28. He'll get a bounce all right, but then it'll settle back even lower

than before the convention. Other events had a similar effect on his popularity. He has NEVER continued to rise after a one-time bounce. He has always dropped, and always below where he was pre-bounce.