Hear all about it! Kerry landslide! Get your latest poll stats and graphs!

[TruthIsAll]

99% win probability, 337 EV and no end in sight...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[gristy]

1. Wow, you're gettin' a lot of hits TIA

Was able to get in the first time, then tried getting in a second time and I got this:

Sorry, this site is temporarily unavailable! The web site you are trying to access has exceeded its allocated data transfer. Visit our help area for more information.

[lastknowngood]

2. Man you're on some heavy duty koolaid. Mo WV Ohio and FL

come on let's get a grip. Ohio and FL have the new vote rigging machines. WV is a repug stronghold Mo all the shrub has to say is
gay marriage and Mo is gone. Maryland has the new vote stealers to, and the gov will be using the state police to intmidate inercity voters just as they did when he won.

[gatorboy]

3. Are all of your posts negative? Just seems like it.

EOM

[Catch22Dem]

4. Wouldn't know

There's only one person on my ignore list, and it looks like he/she just posted. HAHAHAHA. Saw that poster take some shit on another thread too. Guess my 1 ignore is worth it.

[AndyTiedye]

5. I'd Feel Better if Somebody Could Refute What He Says...

...rather than just bashing or ignoring him.

I'm afraid people are whistling past the graveyard here.

This is the Bush* adminstration here. Things are always worse
than they appear.

We all know the elections are in Florida are hopelessly crooked,
so much so that we cannot count on that state no matter how far
ahead we may be in the polls there.

Last I heard there were still enough touch-screens in Ohio to
swing the state to Bush* if the election were held today.

Maryland looks solidly Democratic, but AFAIK, all of the votes
are being counted by Diebold. They could steal it. It would
look very suspicious if Kerry was up 10% and lost, but it was
almost that bad in Georgia in 2002 and they got away with it.
With no paper trail, what can anybody do about a blatantly-stolen
election?

If the information I have about Ohio or Maryland is incorrect,
I would appreciate an update.

I've never been to Missouri or West Virginia, and don't know how
much impact the gay marriage and abortion issues will have there.
Both states have a reputation for being very conservative.

[Sydnie]

10. WV has not been a republican strong hold for long

Remember, they have returned Byrd to Washington for more years than I can remember.

Having grown up in Charleston, I saw many conservatives in the older generation. Unfortunately, there seems to be a lot of misinformation passed from one generation to the next. But, when it comes right down to it, they are a strong union state. Bush has been changing OSHA rules, allowed a major coal company to go belly up and discontinue health care that has been their right for many, many years. That is not sitting well with them.

Mountain top removal is not sitting well with them either.

They "trend" to the religious right more often then not, with churches being the main social event for a great number.

They have been very democratic in the past, voting in the blue slate since Kennedy. But local elections have changed. Since the days of Arch Moore, many dems have become more conservative.

They do, however, have strong feelings about abortion, some pro choice and many squarely in the pro life side.

Most of the discussion about gay marriage is bashing by both sides.

If you want to see what they talk about, and what debates are going on at least online, check out the Gazette's forum here. http://wvgazettemail.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=10

There are liberals there, moderates and conservatives. Even with the relatively low registered users, there are active posters there. Some are even asking the tough questions that beg to be answered.

If anyone has a link to any similar forum from the other states in question, we might be able to glean the pulse of the area there.

So, if anyone knows of forums for papers in those areas, please share the links with us.

[blue neen]

12. Welcome to DU from another Newbie

and thanks for the information; logical and sensible.

[The Great Escape]

11. He Is Wrong About West Virginia Being a Repuke Stronghold..........

for most of my lifetime...the state has been a one party democratic stronghold ...WVA has two democratic senators, two out of three democratic congressional reps, a democratic governor (who is not seeking a second term) who should be replaced by another democrat in November and a long history of "typically" supporting the democratic nominee for president. On top of this WVA voter registration runs at 59.4% to 29.2% in favor of dems. Are there alot of conservative people in WVA. Sure, but this has not always translated to Republican conservativism. West Virginia has a long history of Union activism and progressive politics. Shrub essentially won WVA in '00 by promising to pump alot of "clean coal" technology money into the state (which he has not delivered on) and successfully painting Gore as an enviromental whacko. (With mountain-top removal mining ruining our hills, we need more of these whackos).


Here's the thumbnail info for WVA


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/pre/WV/

[West Coast Democrat]

6. The Gay Marriage Issue is over in Missouri...

that election already happened, and it shouldn't effect the presidential election very much.

[soggy]

13. um, are pollsters drinking the kool-aid too?

the latest MO, OH, FL, and WV polls all show Kerry leading, so I'm not exactly sure how that's wishful thinking...

www.electoral-vote.com

[KharmaTrain]

15. West Virginia A Repug Stronghold???

Which elections have you been watching? Letsee...you've got TWO Democratic Senators and the state has voted Democrat far more times than Repugnican. Yep, they screwed up in 2000 (they went for Clinton in '92 & '96)...and have paid the price big time for 3 1/2 years of this regime.

I wonder if the Jessica Lynch fiasco and now Lyndie England is having an effect there. Any VW DU'ers?

Missouri is KC & St. Louis with rubes inbetween (sorry folks in Columbia/Rolla) but Clinton did well there as well. Remember, this is the state that sent Asskroft packing and could be a real surprise on election day. While I don't have them in my "book 'em" file yet, I like what I'm seeing in the polls.

EVMs are only effective if this race is as close as 2000. Models from many different places are showing that isn't going to be the case.

Plus, thanks to the ongoing hard work of folks like Bev Harris, we're very aware of the problem areas and will be watching those like a hawk. I don't expect us to be blindsided again like we were in 2000.

I've always said the keys to winning are maintaining the 2000 Gore states (which looks like that's happening) and picking up 12 votes...who cares where. My hopes were in West Va (lookin' good), Ohio (trends seem positive) and Missouri (be ready to be surprised).

I didn't even figure in New Hampshire (4 votes there folks...and looks solid) as well as Nevada (I was thinking they'll with us in 2008 and beyond). What surprises is Arizona, Colorado, Tennessee and Virginia.

No cigars and bongos playing here, though...we still have a lot of mud to go through and suprises to be sprung. This regime is acting more like a caged tiger all the time and how it lashes out seems to matter little as to holding on to the fading vestiges of what they enjoyed just a few months ago.

[Gore1FL]

16. I am glad to learn so much from you about MO politics

Obviously my living here for 38 years has masked me from the "all the shrub has to say is gay marriage and Mo is gone."

Funny I guess I was just blionded by living in the state to know about the vast political sway of Gay Marriage.



MO Dems are not going to be swayed by stupidity. We have Anti-choice, and homophobic Dems in MO. They are, nonetheless Dems. To assume that they would vote for Bush over a "Red Meat for the Radical Right" issue is, well, utter bullshit.

WV is not a Republican Stronghold.



Certainly, there are concerns about electronic voting. That is the closest I think you have come to making a point.

[papau]

7. That is one fine web site! Congrats! :-)

:party:

:toast:

:-)

[olddem43]

8. TIA, this is looking better all the time. I just love it -

looks like a landslide or even something bigger. I just wish that tomorrow was Nov. 2.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

9. Site is still down.

If this is the methodology that assumes a 60% or higher break for the challenger... Well, all the statistical analysis in the world is useless if your assumptions are tenuous.

[TruthIsAll]

14. I suggest you read this...

Oh, and BTW, I assume 50,60,70% to the challenger, with 60% as my base case. And 60% is probably too conservative...

And what would be your undecided allocation assumption? That the majority who are undecided after four years of Bush would vote for him? Makes no sense.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/8/11/115130/215

[opihimoimoi]

17. TIA, You are the MAN..... I appreciate your hard work and patriotism

A True American and a good human being....

I send beer and Tony Roma Ribs....and a bunch of Hula Girls too