CNN: Kerry up by SEVEN in OHIO!

[buycitgo]

but VERY CLOSE, still

right

[buycitgo]

1. Eva Zahn keeps saying how CLOSE it is

so, what do they call seven point Bush leads in other states, with an undecided of only six percent?

what states fall into the seven point Bush lead category?

there's a poll here today that says Georgia is LESS than that?

why aren't they talking about THAT?

[Tarheelhombre]

17. It's great that Gallup has us up, but Gallup does a bad job of state polls

As it did with North Carolina this year. I would be more excited that the OTHER polls show us up in Ohio.

[buycitgo]

18. excellent point, but doesn't it alnmost always show the gaps

favoring Bush?

they do swing crazily, which does indicate they have problems somewhere

[faithnotgreed]

2. 7? seriously? in a gallup poll and everything? ok. breathe.....

[Kahuna]

3. Terra alert time! We're up in Ohio and Florida. Take that ...

Swift Boat Liars! N'yah. :P

[Poiuyt]

4. EXCELLENT!!!

I had been worried about Ohio. I know we're not out of the woods yet, but at least we're going in the right direction.

[PaDem]

5. Where did you get 7?

I heard 2% up for Kerry among likely voters, Kerry up 10% among registered voters.

[buycitgo]

7. they just flashed it on the screen

maybe I'm hallucinating, but it was

Kerry 49

Bush 42

undecided 6

if I saw it incorrectly, I'm sorry

I don't think so, though

maybe they did another version, as you said, but I didn't see it

somebody else must have

let me know, and I'll change it

[Doosh]

22. very nice!

[Zynx]

6. I saw ten points there on the screen.

Maybe that wasn't including Nader.

[RummyTheDummy]

25. It was 10

Then they showed a poll of likely voters and it was cut to 2 for Kerry. They have to do that to save face with the White House for not towing the official line. It's kind of their little "out" in the whole deal.

[buycitgo]

8. how did the likely/registered polls shake out last time?

were the likelies closer to the actual count?


also, Michael Moore claims that these distinctions aren't valid this time, because of (self-serving, I know) his movie, and general displeasure among nonvoters, which he claims to be cognizant of, as a result of his travels, his emails, his website, etc.

hope he's right, and that a heretofore unaccounted for contingent appears at the polls

this is not thought likely, and is considered wishful thinking by the "pros," but the pros at Gallup had Bush up by 13 in their final 2000 poll

so, who knows?

[West Coast Democrat]

9. The link is here

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/18/ohio/index.html

Kerry with slight lead
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 761 registered Ohio voters, conducted between August 13-15, showed Kerry at 50 percent, followed by Bush at 41 percent and Independent candidate Ralph Nader at 5 percent.

With Nader not an option, Kerry had 52 percent support to Bush's 42 percent. The sampling error, in both cases, was +/- 4 percentage points.

Kerry's advantage dropped significantly when only likely voters, 628 in the survey, were considered. Forty-seven percent of respondents sided with the Democratic senator, 45 percent with Bush and 4 percent with Nader.

The two-point gap held -- 48 percent for Kerry, 46 percent for Bush -- when Nader was not in the mix. The sampling error for this respondent pool was +/- 5 percentage points.

[buycitgo]

10. thanks.....jesus

maybe I AM hallucinating

but that's why I STARTED this thread! cause I saw the seven point lead!

and they don't replay this

not that this matters, anyway, at this point

I keep trying not to pay any attention to these polls, but it's hard not to, especially when it's good news

[calico1]

11. Well you know if Kerry is up by 7

that means its a tie!

:silly:

[West Coast Democrat]

14. They throw out so many different numbers, it gets confusing!!

[pmbryant]

12. This is Gallup, so it's rather suspect

I don't find them to be amongst the most reliable of polling organizations the last few years.

:shrug:

Peter

[lancdem]

15. Another example of how CNN's likely voter methodology

reeks. From 10 points among RVs to 2 points among LVs? Give me a break. That swing is just too damn big. They have to be undersampling Dems in the LV category.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. They automatically discard all newly registered voters.

Also, they consider you more likely to vote if you voted in past elections, so it seems to me that would cause a slight natural bias in the 'likely voters' towards whoever won the last time.

And, it excludes anyone who is normally disaffected from the political process but registered to vote specifically to beat Bush. We know there are millions of such people because we are the ones registering them.

[Beetwasher]

20. Yup, This Discrepancy Says It All

But we've known that for a while!

[Leilani]

13. This poll was done specially for Eva Zahn

She is having a special show on CNN tonite from Ohio...a town hall

might be interesting, if she can be fair.

[buycitgo]

16. that's a mighty big IF

think she'll have her dream lover, #41, as part of the town hall?

maybe she'll let him axe a few questions

and, did you see Sibel Edmonds with her last night?


just realized, I taped the rerun, and haven't watched her

she's almost as good as Wes Clark, without the stammers

ha

[Beetwasher]

21. I'm Astounded! So, It's Official, The Smear Boat Liars Have Flopped!

I'm sure OH must have been a state inundated w/ the smear and yet, Kerry starts pulling away! Ha Ha!!!

I wasn't expecting this from Gallup. If Gallup's got these numbers, it's even better for Kerry...

[Zech Marquis]

23. they HAVE to say that

otherwise someone with VERY thin skin will have a big hissy fit :bounce:

[David Zephyr]

24. Very Good News.

Ohio has my nerves wrecked. Thanks for the good news.