Reuters: "Most political scientists & economists foresee a win for Bush"

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

President George W. Bush (news - web sites) (L) stands with Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) as he talks to the press at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, August 23, 2004. Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for Bush. (Jeff Mitchell/Reuters)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?g=events/pl/011902gop&a=&tmpl=sl&ns=&l=1&e=5&a=0&printer=

Way-cool scowling primate Bush photo with an amused Evil Dick bonus!

[Lex]

1. Are these the same folks who said Lieberman would be the Dem nominee?

I'm thinking so.

Just to put it in perspective.

[bryant69]

2. That is a nice picture

Kind of puts in perspective

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[swag]

3. I saw my baby gettin' sloppy

Some economists, yes (Ray Fair as the most obvious example) but political scientists?

I think Reuters' captioners are gettin' sloppy here.

[WilliamPitt]

4. So do I, frankly

No one here gets out alive.

[lancdem]

13. You're predicting Bush will win???

Or am I missing something?

[WilliamPitt]

15. Put it this way

It'll shock the balls off me if he loses.

* More money

* The office of the President to direct national crap

* Lapdog media

* Osama may 'pop up' any time, or blow something up

* Iraq war off the media radar screen

* Abu Ghraib scandal gone

* Plame scandal off the radar screen

We've got a mighty hill to climb. This is why I want to break something when I see people talk about a Kerry landslide.

No one here gets out alive.

[lancdem]

18. Those are all obstacles, I agree

But I'm a bit more optimistic, though I would never predict a Kerry landlside.

[ElementaryPenguin]

19. He WON'T win, Will - but he may remain in office!

Tricky art isn't going to be defeating Bush/Cheney again as far as the voters are concerned - the hard part (once again) is going to be actually assumming office!

[scottcsmith]

20. Too close to call, I think

At least right now. I think we'll have a better idea after the debates.

If I had to guess, I'd say a Kerry win, but it will be very close and not a landslide.

[xray s]

5. as a wise man once said...

...an economist is someone who, when they don't know a phone number, goes to the phone book and dials the average of all the phone numbers in the book...

[Lefty48197]

6. I forsee a humiliating pink-slipping of Bush

or is that a flashback?

[bluestateguy]

7. There they go again with their "models"

Four years ago all forecasting modelers predicted a convincing win for Al Gore. One said that Gore would win 57& of the 2 party vote. Only one of these modelers was correct, Ray Fair of MIT, who gave Gore 50.2% of the 2 party vote. They have been doing this retroactively for 15 years to forecast elections going back to the 1940's. Then when they are proven wrong, they go back and fiddle with their coefficients and measurements to say that their models really were correct. For example, in the 4th quarter of 2000 GDP numbers were lower, so the "experts" plugged that in to their models to then claim that they were really right.

I know for a fact that these analysts are fine scholars, but I don't know what they hope to achieve by doing all this forecasting stuff. They seem to suggest that the same rules apply to every election. Is there a variable to account for the nation being at war? Perhaps there should be, even though most elections are peacetime elections. 1968 was a very prosperous year, but there was that little tiff in Southeast Asia that complicated things for HHH.

This is why the only models I'm interested in are in the magazines.

[Guaranteed]

8. Right, that the 58% of the vote prediction that we all laughed at

a few days ago.

[BootinUp]

9. Creepy pic....worthless story n/t

[0rganism]

10. This story includes the dufus who predicts a 58.5% bush majority

I'd like to see the Vegas odds on that number.

[LuminousX]

12. I wonder who is voting for Bush who didn't vote for him last time?

[LuminousX]

11. As a degreed Political Scientist

I can honestly say most political scientists don't know what the fuck they are talking about. It is 90% speculation and 10% fact. And I doubt each and every Political Scientist and Economist was polled to find out if 'most' believe this or not.

This is a total 'fluffer' piece for Bush.

[Beetwasher]

14. It's Blatant Disgusting Propoganda

They went and found a few people who "predict" this and then claim "most". What utter garbage. And why is it I only see stories about the "experts" who predict a Bush win? There are experts out there who predict Kerry winning too...

Shameful...

[dmr]

24. Propaganda, I agree, Beetwasher

One thing I've learned in the work-world is we can manipulate anything on paper to say what we want it to say. I've seen my bosses do it many times.

Just like they found the Swift Boat Liars to demonize Senator Kerry's war service, they can find experts to predict a Democratic loss.

It's all about planting seeds of doubt in the minds of the American voter.

Bush* can't campaign on his own merits. He can't campaign about the plans he has that would benefit the American people, and he certainly can't campaign on the good things he has done for America, - the things he has done, he has to hide. To bring any of what he has done or plan to do would open a Pandora box for Senator Kerry's campaign to refute.

The Bush* camp keeps the Kerry campaign and supporters busy with their clever play on words (Compassionate Conservative, flip-flop) or their discrediting Kerry (Swift Boat Liars, Bob Dole). There are so many other things that I can't think of at the moment, and now this prediction by the 'experts' - all diversion, all manipulation.

These manipulations not only act as a diversion, it also depletes Kerry's campaign war chest which Kerry needs as we get closer to November. I think that is one of the reasons why Bush has come out now against the 527s - he doesn't want us grass-rooters pooling our money together to help Kerry out - especially when that war chest becomes smaller and smaller.

So, yeah, I agree with Beetwasher, this episode is another piece of the Bush* propaganda.

[enough]

16. What the hell does Bush* think he is projecting here?

I'm serious. Everything about this is conscious posturing, including the shirt tuck-in and the little hostile potbelly thrust. But what I can't figure out is WHAT is he trying to project?

[Gothmog]

17. These are same idiots who predicted Gore would win easily

The fact that these experts are predicting a Bush victory is really good news for Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards. These projections are very suspected and have not been very accurate.

[MoonRiver]

21. Looks like dickey is gonna give jr. a little backside suprise!

Oops, did I post that?
:spank:

[hatrack]

22. And economists are NEVER wrong!!!

:evilgrin:

[hatrack]

23. And economists are NEVER wrong!!!

:evilgrin: