16 new Zogby poll results

[VirginiaDem]

http://www.race2004.net/

Some very interesting results here. Some Kerry leads have dropped but he's made some good gains as well.

[VirginiaDem]

1. I've summarized the results

Kerry seems to mostly have dropped in his leads but not in every case:

New Hampshire--Kerry leads by 7.2, down from 8.9 in last Zogby
Penn--Kerry's up by 8.3 (was 8)
Fla--Kerry's up by 0.6 (was up by 2.8)
WV--Bush is up by 7.8 (was 3.9)
Ohio--Bush is up by 5.6 (was 5)
Mich--Kerry's up by 5.2 (was 6.5)
Tenn--Kerry up by 1.9 (was 1.8)
Wisc--Kerry up by 4.4 (was 1.9)
Missouri--Kerry up by 0.5 (was 0.6)
NM--Kerry up by 5.8 (was 1.5)
Arkansas--Kerry is up by 2.6 (was Bush by 1.5)
Minn--Kerry up by 3.7 (was 8.1)
Iowa--Kerry up by 7 (was 3.9)

[democratreformed]

2. Woo Hoo!!

Arkansas is back to Kerry!!!! Woo hoo!!!

[VolcanoJen]

3. Great summary, and THANKS, VirginiaDem!

Being a Buckeye, I'm upset about the Ohio results, but other polls show it quite a bit closer...

We'll see, I guess. The Tennessee result is absolutely bowling me over!!

[veteran_for_peace]

7. Memphis will win the election for John Kerry

We in Shelby County are determined to win this election for John Kerry. We have a mock headline in the office that says "John Kerry defeats Bush because of Shelby County." Voter turnout will be very high. It will knock the socks off of Bush. I have personally registered five voters. I challenge everybody to do that.

[VolcanoJen]

12. See, if Tennessee pulls it off, then it's GAME OVER.

Checkmate.

I'm looking in your direction, Tennessee. And might I add that you are my personal favorite state, because your people are so sweet, so kind, so perfect in their ability to rise above political rancor?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

31. Memphis BBQ is damn good too! n/t

[redstateblues]

41. DUers Probably Get Tired Of My" TN Has A Mass. Librul

in the Governor's Office" mantra. But it's true- Phil Bredesen won the governor's race by getting disaffected Rs to vote for him and by rallying his base

[AnnitaR]

45. Aww thanks VolcanoJen!

See DU us southerners aren't so bad! I used to work in Pigeon Forge a major tourist destination close to the Smoky Mtns and people from places like Ohio were always telling us that we were so nice and polite. I've never thought of myself that way but we'd get that sort of thing all the time.

[Cha]

24. Welcome to du, flood! And thanks

in advance!:D

[redstateblues]

36. Thousands Of New Voters Registered In Nashville Area

I know of one group that has registered nearly 10,000 new voters in Middle TN alone

[VirginiaDem]

5. Three more states...

In Nevada Kerry is up 1.7 (Bush was up 0.6)
Oregon--Kerry up 11.3 (was 4)
Wash--Kerry up 8.4 (was 7.8)

[Arugula Latte]

44. Yay for Oregon!

The only reason it was classified as "battleground", IMO, was because in 2000 about 5 percent went for Nader.

Good for you Nevada!

Hurray, Washington!

[lancdem]

10. Actually, it looks to me

like Kerry has gained in at least as many as he's dropped. The one that bugs me is Ohio.

[Cha]

25. That damn democratic(sic) mayor

McKelvey of Youngstown who endorses bush. And they've lost a lot of their steel workers jobs..

[BillZBubb]

37. What the hell is wrong with Ohio?

Those people are moving towards moran status. Bush* has been a disaster for the state--and the nation. Maybe they are masochists?

[indyjones1938]

14. strategy for the kerry-edwards campaign

Comparing the new Zogby results with those from Electoral-Vote.com, I am convinced that Kerry must have a backup plan in place to win without Florida and Ohio. Here is my reasoning:

(1) Surprise, surprise - there will be voter fraud in Florida. :nopity: According to the NYTimes, Jeb Bush's police and the FBI are already breaking into the homes of elderly and black voters throughout the state, roughing them up and intimidating them. It has also been reported that fliers are being distributed in heavily black neighborhoods publicizing the incorrect date for the election. It's all part of Jeb's effort to disenfranchise as many Democratic voters as possible. Sure, Florida might be a close race when Zogby or Rasmussen dials people up on the phone, but it's not going to be close when Jeb's henchmen physically prevent them from voting.

(2) Ohio is using the new Diebold electronic voting machines. There is no paper trail, the machines can be easily rigged and very easily hacked. To put the icing on the cake, Diebold is a diehard supporter of George W. Bush. In fact, the CEO of Diebold has already promised Bush that he is going to "deliver him the election." In other words, Diebold is going to steal the election for Bush, and because there's no paper trail, there isn't a damn thing anybody can do about it. Technology is great, ain't it? :mad:

So here's my opinion on what the Kerry-Edwards campaign should do:

Focus on taking all four of: New Hampshire, West Virginia, Nevada and Arkansas.

Take at least one of: Tennessee, Colorado and Missouri. This in addition to all the Gore states.

Can anyone crunch the numbers for me?

[mvd]

15. I'm not convinced they can steal it this time

Kerry and groups like Jesse Jackson's need to have constant monitoring.

[Beetwasher]

18. Kerry Can Definitely Do It W/out OH and FL

No doubt. He needs to win every Gore state + NH (this is almost a given I think) and then pretty much one more state like AZ or TN or TN+WV, or CO or MO etc...

Welcome to DU!! Good post!

The LA times has a good EV counter.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory

[VirginiaDem]

19. Kerry doesn't need that much

without OH and PA. He'll need to turn a total of ten electoral votes to win. Missouri, Arizona, Tennessee, VA and NC would do it by themselves. Otherwise, New Hampshire plus Arkansas or WV plus NV or any number of combos. There are a lot of real possibilities since Kerry is winning or close in so many red states.

[bushwakker]

32. PA is a must

The trick is to win w/out OH or FL. Kerry must win PA.

[kymar57]

23. Hi indy. Welcome to DU

just curious got a link for this?

"According to the NYTimes, Jeb Bush's police and the FBI are already breaking into the homes of elderly and black voters throughout the state, roughing them up and intimidating them."

[indyjones1938]

35. n/t

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/16/opinion/16herbert.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/23/opinion/23herbert.html

[kymar57]

40. Thanks n/t

:hi:

[Cha]

27. It chaps my butt that we have to make sure we have

other states in our win column because at least one of them will be stolen by the scumbag's brother in Florida. :grr:

[David Zephyr]

4. Thanks for the Good News, VirginiaDem

Wisconsin is the one that has me breathing easier. Thanks.

[faithnotgreed]

6. so sweet to see the words "kerry in the lead" in iowa, arkansas, missouri

tennessee, wisconsin etc etc

dont have ohio though which is different than the poll cnn/wolf announced friday i think...

oh well ill take it for sure!

thanks for sharing

[VirginiaDem]

8. now the summary

Kerry gained two states--Arkansas and Nevada
Kerry lost minor ground (less than 4 points) in six states
Kerry gained minor ground in three states
Kerry gained more than 4 points in three states (including Arkansas)
Kerry lost more than 4 points in one state
There were two states that were essentially even (0.1 difference)

In no states did Kerry lose a lead.

[Cha]

28. These were states where the scumboat liars' ads

were out in full force no doubt.

[gatorboy]

9. I still don't understand the incredible Bush boost in California..

...In such a short amount of time. Doesn't make sense.

[lancdem]

13. It has to be an outlier

[pmbryant]

17. Don't worry about that one California poll

The only one showing it close in CA is by Survey USA. Note that back in May the same outfit found Kerry only leading in CA by 1%. All the other CA polls around that time showed Kerry leading by 8-15%.

--Peter

[Democat]

26. There is a poll from the same time with Kerry ahead by 16%

Two polls came out at the same time, one of them had Kerry ahead by 16%. Some people have decided to focus on the other poll, but it's bullshit.

Here is the other poll from the same time with Kerry way ahead:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/16/state2044EDT0177.DTL

[Cha]

29. They can focus on the other poll at their own risk.

If it's so damn close in Cal..maybe dumbhead can go out there and campaign.

[Davis_X_Machina]

30. Unless if's a Field poll, it's basically not to worry.

Field owns Cali political polling.

[Zynx]

34. Bush didn't get a boost. That poll polled more Repukes than Dems.

Dems outnumber Republicans by ten points in CA.

[mvd]

11. I don't understand that WV result

Zogby's usually good, but I question that one. What could have caused that much of a swing in a month?

[pmbryant]

16. At least one of those polls is a statistical outlier

Or perhaps they both are and the true result is right down the middle.

Looking at other polls in WV going back a couple months, that may well be the case.

:shrug:

Peter

[mvd]

46. Good thinking

I think that WV will eventually go blue - but Kerry can't ignore it as much as Gore did. I believe that the Democratic convention might have brought out the "Kerry is too liberal" crowd there, and Bush ads there might have hurt.

[PaDem]

20. Frankly I question quite a few of the results........

up in Arkansas and Tennessee? I don't buy it.

[VirginiaDem]

21. both leads are pretty small n/t

[Pepperbelly]

22. Upon what do you base that remark?

Just curious.

[PaDem]

33. Nothing all that concrete I must admit...........

but when a California poll comes out showing Kerry with a 3 pt lead, the majority of posters here say "Not to worry, California will be solid for Kerry". I definitely agree with that premise. I use the same logic with regards to a state like Tennessee. I'll believe Kerry is ahead in Tennessee when he wins it, not until then. I've looked at a lot of polls over the past year. Some of these numbers seem to contradict some of the most recent polling data that is out there. Kerry was up 6 pts in a very recent Florida poll, and he was up 2 pts just last week in a CNN Ohio poll. Zogby here isn't reflecting that. Oregon polls have been very tight, Zogby isn't reflecting that here.

I was a Howard Dean supporter in the primaries. I followed polls in Iowa and NH like they were going out of style. Zogby totally whiffed in both states. I clinged to his polling data the day prior to Iowa. His numbers had a dead heat between the top three finishers. Other pollsters had Kerry surging well ahead of Dean and Edwards surging past him as well. They were right, Zogby was wrong. New Hampshire Zogby had Kerry only slightly ahead of Dean the day of the primary. Other pollsters had Kerry well ahead. Again, Zogby was wrong. I just don't trust his numbers at all.

[featherman]

39. can't disagree about polls and a grain of salt but

Oregon will not be as close as some polling suggests. I'm looking at Kerry +5-6 here. This is a DEM state that had a very high Nader vote in 2000 to make it appear close. That will not be as great a factor this year. Bush is not popular in Oregon except among his usual GOP and fundie base. There is no groundswell of "Bush is just great" on the West Coast anywhere but Alaska.

[Carla in Ca]

38. A bit of good news?

I just read an interesting tidbit on Hardblogger...

Pollsters cannot find any Gore2000 voters voting for Bush this time but are finding Bush2000 voters who will now vote for Kerry. If the religious right did NOT stay home in 2000 as previously reported, this could be what takes Kerry/Edwards to victory!!

[Nicholas_J]

42. The most recent current and projected electora vote counts still

HAve Kerry with a good lead on Bush:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 286 Bush 233

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Election 2004

Electoral College

Bush 183
Kerry 203
Toss-Up 152

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Current Projected Tally:

Electoral Votes: Bush 227, Kerry 311
Popular Vote: Bush 47.4%, Kerry 50.7%

http://www.electionprojection.com/

Electoral College Update 23

Kerry 296, Bush 242 electoral votes. The latest projection, based on averages of all recent state-by-state polls, shows Nevada now in the Bush column.

http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/2004_electoral_college_updates/index.html

The race is closing in, but the situation still has Kerry in the lead. The comebacks against the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth have not yet had nn effect on the polls but the major media seems to be presenting a case that has seems to be attacking the credibility of those attacking Kerry.

[Tarheelhombre]

43. kick