New Zogby polls indicate Kerry has good shot at Tn, Ark, Mo, NH

[WI_DEM]

Zogby released a bunch of new polls today and in key battleground states it appears that Kerry continues to be in pretty good shape.

Tennessee Kerry is up 50-48
Arkansas Kerry is up 48-46
Missouri is tied 49-49
New Hampshire gives Kerry a tidy 51-43 percent lead.
Nevada is leaning Kerry 48-46

Now remember all five of the above states went Red in 2000

Other results
Florida 50-49 Kerry edge
Michigan 51-45 Kerry
Wisconsin 51-47 Kerry
Minnesota 50-45 Kerry


Iowa swung hard to Kerry who is now leading by 52-45
In Oregon too, Kerry opened up a good lead, 54-43.
In Washington Kerry is up 53-45
Pennsylvania is 52-44 Kerry.

Bush got a glimmer of good news from two states:
Ohio which is leaning 51-46 for Bush and West Virginia where he has a 49-42 percent lead.

http://www.race2004.net/

[cynatnite]

1. Dancing In TN

:headbang: :bounce: :toast: :bounce: :headbang: :bounce: :toast: :bounce: :headbang:

Cyn:)

[democratreformed]

5. Joining you in Arkansas

:party: :toast: :bounce: :yourock: :party: :toast: :bounce: :yourock:

[tridim]

2. Colorado is tied too

and trending toward Kerry. Zogby needs to add it to the list.

[Zynx]

4. We said it would be in his next report along with AZ, VA, and NC.

http://zogby.com/features/features.dbm?ID=212

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. The trend continues, Kerry's base is strong

he is challenging or ahead of Bush in several formerly 'red states'.

But - am I right in saying that there are no formerly 'blue states' where it looks like Bush is ahead?

[still_one]

6. The problem is anything can happen to change it

Nader, Iraq war, terrorism

This is still a very unknown race...

We MUST fight as though we are behind!!!

[pmbryant]

7. Interesting about the Ohio results

I looked at the polls for Ohio compiled by that website and found an interesting pattern.

Who is up in Ohio appears to depend on which organization is doing the poll. Zogby and Strategic Vision have consistently found Bush slightly ahead. ARG and Gallup have consistently found Kerry slightly ahead. I'd have expected the individual results of each organization's polls to bounce around a bit more. But each organization shows qiute steady results internally.

:shrug:

Peter

[Dick_Tuck]

9. Ohio is still a toss-up...

but who cares. If Kerry can remain competitive there, without shooting his load, he'll have Bush dancing around. As I mentioned in another post, WV and NH tie this up (assuming we can hold WS). That means that Bush has to play big time defense, and Kerry can pick and choose where he wants to spend his money.

Bush loses... The only remaining question is by how much.

[Dick_Tuck]

8. Add West Virginia....

WV is well into the Kerry column. NH and WV tie the EC, assuming we hold Wisc. Any other state is a win for Kerry. I also think VA, NC, and AZ are in play.

[faithnotgreed]

16. hi tuck - welcome to du and thanks for analysis

[featherman]

10. Sorry to be back to losing in WV but this poll is a bit of an outlier

The good news is NV, a state I am watching carefully. I believe NH is solid and I am happy to see WI and IA firming up.
I'm expecting all the Gore states will stay DEM and haven't seen anything persuasive to change my opinion. The addition of NH (pretty solid) and EITHER WV or NV gives Kerry 269.
This puts Bush in the difficult position of needing to sweep ALL of the following to just gain a tie: AZ, CO, MO, AR, TN, OH, VA, NC, FL and either WV or NV
A tough hill to climb.

[59millionmorons]

11. Sorry

I dont have faith in Zogby interactive polls.

[faithnotgreed]

17. this is from zogby interactive polls? i didnt know that

[DaveinMD]

12. what these polls

are showing is that the Gore states are nicely in our column. All the states that we need to win to tip it our way are very close. But we don't need all of them. Just one of them if its big enough. I like our odds.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Zogby's national polls are more reliable than his state numbers

He nailed the 2000 popular vote but had many gaffes statewide, like Bush very close in California and Hillary barely ahead of Lazio.

And sorry to be skeptical, but I just don't buy it when he projects substantial road advantages, one party ahead on the other team's turf when both sides are energized. Similar to 2000, when Zogby had Strickland swamping Allard in Colorado when the outcome was just the opposite.

No chance in electoral heaven Kerry would carry Tennessee today, nor win New Hampshire by 8 points or anything close to that.

State and national polls will begin to have meaning two weeks after the Republican convention.

[DaveinMD]

15. disagree about New Hampshire

that is a state that is our's for the taking. Gore would have won it last time if not for Nader. Clinton did very well there and Dems are making major inroads.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. We can win NH, but not by substantial margin

Clinton carried the state by 1 point in '92, with a 5 1/2 point national margin, and by an impressive 10 points in '96, when he won nationally by 8 1/2 points. That '96 result is intriguing, but based on 2000 and the 2002 Shaheen senate race I'm not ready to give us a distinct edge in NH.

I would be shocked if we won the state by more than 3 or 4 points, unless Kerry opens an unforseen national edge.

[DaveinMD]

20. we'll win NH

by 5 points. That's my prediction

[bringbackfdr]

21. Dems here in NH

Kerry will win here but I don't know about Dems making inroads. We have a 90-something year old candidate to run against Jughead Gregg. The party here needs life support.

[DaveinMD]

22. the party

is behind the electorate. They definitely need to develop a better bench. People like you need to start running for office.

[spanone]

14. damn, how could that many people vote for * ?

after the way he's fucked up the world.

[arewenotdemo]

18. Must be one helluva lot of fundamentalist crazies...

wanting an early Rapture/Armageddon. And they're all counting on Dimson to finish the job he started.