Kennedy/Nixon pre election polls for August

[Windy]

And I think that polls were more reliable then. NO caller ID and no cell phones!

In August 1960 most polls gave Vice-President Nixon a slim lead over Kennedy, and many political pundits regarded Nixon as the favorite to win.

Article here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1960#The_fall_campaign

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Not sure what you're getting at...

The gallup polls were tight (1-2 points) throughout the 1960 campaign and the popular vote was the closest of the 20th century.

Close polls predict close elections.

Pundits in 1960 dismissed the polling and were almost universal in predicting a Nixon victory. They gave greater weight to their impression of the environment than to polling.

Today we have the gallup poll tied, but a universal view among the "informed opinion" class that Obama will win. So the only 1960 analogy one can take from the OP is that Obama is Nixon, and will lose, which I doubt was your intention.

(for the record, polling was far less accurate in 1960 than today. When "Dewey beat Truman" there was no caller ID or cellphones.)

[book_worm]

2. the other "change election" that people point to is 1980

Up until the last weekend of that race the polls were tight and then broke hard for Reagan. The debates, I believe, are going to be pivotal for Obama.

[WinkyDink]

3. I don't think we Democrats want to scrutinize that election. :)