February Contests Shape Up as Pivotal

[Freddie Stubbs]

Dean's apparent edge in those races could give him an insurmountable lead over rivals.

By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer


GREEN BAY, Wis. — While Howard Dean's rivals are focusing almost entirely on the first several states that vote in the Democratic presidential race, the former Vermont governor appears to be building enough strength in the next wave of contests that he could virtually clinch the nomination by mid-February, even if he stumbles early.

With Dean's opponents forced to concentrate their efforts on Iowa and New Hampshire — or, at most, the seven predominantly Southern and Western states that vote on Feb. 3 — the front-runner's emerging advantage in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Maine and Washington that follow with primaries or caucuses later in February could provide him a formidable firewall against any early reversals.

Even if Dean's opponents nick him in more moderate states, such as South Carolina and Oklahoma, that hold primaries Feb. 3, most analysts agree they must prevent him from dominating the mid-February contests. Otherwise, Dean could establish an insurmountable advantage heading into the 10-state showdown March 2, which includes primaries in delegate-rich California and New York.

"I don't think you can win on Feb. 3 and not win again until March 2," said Nick Baldick, campaign manager for Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. "You have to have a state somewhere in there where you can go win."

more: http://www.latimes.com/la-na-dems4jan04,1,460540.story

[MaineDem]

1. Well of course

Iowa and NH are just the first. Certainly not the largest. Whoever wins the most number of delegates...not the number of individual states... gets the nomination. Therefore, it'll be important for any candidate to do well in a number of primary/caucus states. I can't imagine any candidate dropping out after NH.

[adamrsilva]

2. Dean currently leads in a plurality of states between Feb 3-Mar 2

AZ, NM, OK, SC, DL (Lieberman is leading but Dean is close behind and this will shift quickly), VA, MI, and WI in February. He currently leads in GA, MD, MA, NY, and VT on Super Tuesday. The thing of it is, if Dean wins in IO and NH, in all likelihood, he will maintain those leads and wrap up the nomination.

[MaineDem]

3. Welcome to DU

But winning Iowa and NH do not a nominee make.

Look at Harkin, Tsongas, and Hart, for example.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. None of those guys won BOTH Iowa and NH

If Dean does, he will be very difficult to stop.

[MaineDem]

5. Good point

My main argument - and it's with the system not with anyone in particular - is that the media is playing this like it's a done deal before even the first vote has been cast (other than absentees.)

The undecideds are still running ahead of the candidates. Anything can happen.

But your point is well taken.

[adamrsilva]

7. You miss the point

Which is simply if Dean wins both Iowa and New Hampshire then he has the momentum to maintain his leads in those Feb states, and it will be hard for anyone to take him on. Most analysts agree somebody has to take him out now to beat him.

[maxr4clark]

6. IO?

Iowa is IA, nobody is voting on Jupiter's moon Io--and if they were, it wouldn't give anyone any delegates. ;)

I agree that Dean is the front-runner for the nomination at this time, but the question is, will the picture today be the same when it comes time to cast votes in those states? If Clark comes in second in NH, beating two of three home-town favorites from NE, and does well in SC and AZ and OK and DE (Delaware, DL isn't anything; are you sure Dean is leading in OK?), then what will happen in WI? WI is a hotly contested state. Also, what if Gephardt and Dean essentially split in IA; will Gephardt then take MI?

I agree that Feb is going to be a very important month, but the outcome isn't as clear as you suggest. It is very unusual to have this large a field of candidates; the conventional wisdom may not apply.

[adamrsilva]

8. Dean is leading in most of the Feb and March 2 states

Why wouldn't he maintain that if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire? Why would Clark or anyone else suddenly do so well, out of the blue?

[MaineDem]

10. Isn't "Undecided" leading in most places?

Or at least pretty close.

It's not a slam dunk yet. Especially if people in the later states get fed up with the hype and decide to shake things up a bit.

[adamrsilva]

11. Of course, but undecideds will be affected by who wins IA and NH.

That's the point.

[HFishbine]

9. What do you have against IO?

There's no sign of intellegent life in Alabama either, and they still get to vote.

[JNelson6563]

12. Dean leads in Michigan

February 7. Can't wait!!

Julie