Democrats have 8-point advantage on congressional ballot

[WI_DEM]

This from Rasmussen:
Democrats lead 46-38 on Congressional ballot.
"Except for a few days when the issue of gay marriage was in the news, republicans have held steady at 38-39 percent while during the same period with the same exception, Democrats have been in the 43-45 percent range for most of the month. For most of 2004 Democratic advantage (on congressional ballot) has been 4-7 points.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Congressional_Ballot_Survey.htm

The Democratic advantage on congressional ballot has been about the same or better than the GOP advantage was in 1994 when they won back the House and Senate. I think Democrats have a shot at doing the same thing.

[Frodo]

1. The republicans did not have the advantage in 1994

(Ok, they were up by 2% in one Gallup poll)

Whether due to districting, survey errors, or likely voter demographics, Democrats have almost always led the "generic congressional ballot". Often by double digits, and even in years that we ended up losing seats. (e.g. Democrats led by four points a month before the 2002 elections)

"Generic" just doesn't do us any good when the races are not run nationally. In '94 there was a national Republican HOUSE message (the "contract")... Today there WILL be a unified message, BUT it will be KERRY's message, not the Democratic House candidates' message. So if Kerry wins big? We've got a change. In a close race or if he loses? Not a hope.

Also - in '94 there were something like 70 competitive races. Today there are only a couple dozen (maybe thirty) and the republicans almost automatically pick up four or five in Texas due to redistricting. We would have to win half of the remaining republican seats that are close. When 95% of incumbents get reelected each year, that will be quite a feat.