Why do the polls show a "dead heat"?...................................

[CrownPrinceBandar]

I was glancing at the election section of the CNN website, and their polls show Kerry and Bush in a dead heat in a few battleground states. Also, on CNN-TV last night, poll numbers showed Bush ahead in states such as Ohio and Wisconsin. Now, before anyone criticizes, I am considering the source (CNN) and I know the election is still fairly distant.

But my question is that with all the Swift-boat lies coming out, Bush admitting he was wrong about what he thought we'd face in Iraq and the abysmal state of the economy, why is Shrub getting the high numbers? I would venture that that much scandal would kill any other president.

I was getting complacent about the election up until this point, thinking Kerry had a lock. I truly believed there was a mandate for change in this country. Now I'm really starting to worry that the folks in the US are satisfied with the status quo and might actually my put the Evil One back into office. Does Canada truly await some of us lovers of freedom here in the US?

[jonnyblitz]

1. yup, a dead heat and Bush with a slight lead within margin

of error. that is what I have been seeing. :(

[piece sine]

2. yes

The eastern shore of Lake Erie just below Hamilton, Ontario (not too far from snazzy Toronto)offer a once-in-a-lifetime real estate bargain IF the Canadians will even let you in. Americans shouldn'y presume we can just load a van and move there. Bush II refugees are in for a rude awakening about Canadian immigration.

[rullery]

9. Should I start the paperwork now?

Perhaps it would be wise to beat the rush, and apply for residency in Canada right now; just in case. There are many of us who have been vocal in our opposition to Bush and his corrupt gang, and I have no doubt that Ashcroft and his henchmen are compiling dossiers on us. If Bush manages to steal the election again, I envision internment camps being set up. Some of us will be rounded up as "terrorists" and denied any legal hearings, under the Patriot Act. Those of us who are allowed to remain free will understand that we must remain silent as well. It worked for Hitler, didn't it?

[displacedtexan]

3. TV Cable News ratings

A neck-and-neck race keeps the sheeple tuned in.

[CrownPrinceBandar]

I don't think that TOTALLY explains the numbers................

I'm starting to doubt the value of freedom in this country. I guess greed and nepotism has become the new definitions of "liberty."

[Claire Beth]

12. they won't realize what they have lost.....

until they lost it.....then they will cry for a change...but it could be too late at that point. I'm convinced that IF Duyba gets back in that it's all over for the rest of us. I hope I am wrong.

[FloridaPat]

4. Hard to steal an election when the polls show you getting 10%

of the vote.

Or there are a lot of stupid people out there. I actually heard one programmer at work say it's bad to change horses in mid-stream of a war and he was voting for Bush. The fact that Bush thinks sending programming jobs overseas is good for the economy doesn't register with this twit.

Did meet one republican who is debating whether to vote Democrat or stay home. Those were his two choices. Works for me.

And don't get complacent yet. They repubs are going to have a lot of tricks up their sleeves right up to the day of the election, if we have it.

[barb162]

19. I know people like the programmer

and even one who lost his job to Asia, was out of work 7 months, has a masters, and got a crappier job with no benefits. He is still voting for Bush. Blows my mind too. It is as if they can't put two and two together.

Yes there will be no end to GOP dirty tricks of every sort.

[leesa]

5. Because you have to create the illusion that it is a close race if you

hope to steal the election.

[nofanofbush]

18. Exactly...

I've been saying that for a while now. The only way they can steal it is for the media to keep the polls close.

:tinfoilhat:

[DemonFighterLives]

6. I don't beieve it

But a lot of people are eating up the swift boat lies. Kerry needs to hit them even harder. Even Dems are starting to question who is lying. All the while the phony Christian/phony pResident stands tall in his costume and no questions are asked about where he was during Nam.

[GOPS Worst Fear]

7. I have a feeling Kerry is About To Explode!

I am looking for a total knockout by Kerry on Bush during the debates! I think this is where Kerry will come out fighting and also where alot of the undecides will make up their minds.

[CityDem]

17. Kerry needs

Kerry needs to let the swiftee issue go away. He needs the focus of the media on Iraq, economy, health care, etc. Swiftee stuff is KKK Rove's creation to distract the public from the real issues.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. Corporate control of the media

It's all spin, deciding who is a 'likely voter', undersampling of population segments. Polls are a lot easier to manipulate than elections. The corporations are pulling out all the stops to try to get Bush reselected, but the people of this country will have their say.

[FrenchieCat]

10. the polls are used....

to shape public opinion. They have been used this way forever....during the primaries, they were utilized as well.

It is the televised media that uses selective poll results most effectively. And it's the televised media whom the majority of the masses get their news.

The various networks find a poll that says what they want about a particular subject, and then that poll is used over and over again by many network/cable sources. One could know of a number of other polls with different results, but those won't get airtime if they don't reinforce what the message is supposed to be (according to the decision makers).

Currently the L.A. Times polls is being used because it is the one that is showing Bush in the lead. The heralding of this one poll will help bring all of the other polls in line in a few short days.

Many voters go with the candidate who is in the lead or with the majority opinion of any given poll. It's a psychological way for them to feel like winners....to go with a winner and/or to feel normal and mainstream. These voters see elections as horseraces.....and they want to place their bets on the leading horse. It happened during the truncated primaries.......when many were voting for John Kerry specificifically because he was in the lead. Plus the "He's the most electable one" meme coming from the talking head completed the image that was needed to do the trick.

It was also used when Howard Dean was leading all of the polls. The polls numbers plus the talking heads made him the inevitable winner which was constantly talked about and continued to help pump his numbers up.

I am not saying that Dean would not have been in the lead throughout much of the initial primary season, or that John Kerry would not have won Iowa without the Polls and talking head points. But what I am saying is that's how the media manipulates numbers to shape public opinion to end up with their desired result.

Same thing happened with Edwards as the #1 people's choice for VP. The media focused in on him like a laser beam, which provided him with coverage, which pumped his poll numbers up....then the poll numbers were used to re-inforce that he was the one....which further drove up his poll numbers. When the Kerry Campaign looked at the poll numbers, and saw that Edwards was generating the highest polls....he was picked as VP. Again, this is not to say Edwards would not have been picked anyway......but this does say that the media certainly plays a large role in what ends up being so.

That's why the media and polsters have way too much power in shaping our political world. In essense, they call the shots....and the public follows. That's why some call people that fall for this routine "sheeples". It's not their fault, but they are being manipulated nevertheless. The media massages this method which is a known manner of propagandizing going way back.

[Doohickie]

14. With respect to Dean...

"It was also used when Howard Dean was leading all of the polls."

The first time I heard about Howard Dean was through an email from a cyber-friend. I went to his website and decided then and there that I had serious reservations about him. There was something about him that just didn't seem right to me, although I couldn't put my finger on it. But even if he was nominated, I don't think he would have had a chance against Shrubya. I base this on his association with Vermont and the whole gay marriage thing; that alone would have killed him in much of middle America.

You can say the media killed Dean, but in my opinion he self-detonated.

[GOPAgainstGW]

11. It Helps the Media Sell TV Ads and Newspapers. It's All Total BS!!!!!!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Have Been Consistent...

For some time I have been calling this race a pickem with a slight edge to Kerry....


The polls currently essentially show a pickem race with a slight edge to Chicken George...


I'll stand by my assessment of the race...



I don't know what's less productive.... People arguing that we are doomed and a Bush re election is inevitable or that that there is a 100.3% chance of a Kerry victory....

[liberal N proud]

15. bush and the "liberal" media need them to be close

It is a necessary part of the plan, so whey they have the opportunity on Nov. 2 to steal the election as they did in 2000 it will be harder for anyone to legitimately challenge the vote.

[West Coast Democrat]

16. Because most of the polls in 2000 were wrong, and Kerry is actually ahead

The election may end up being closer than it should be because of the GOP's dirty smears, but Kerry is still going to win.