Tied Electoral College

[jmknapp]

In terms of electoral college nightmare scenarios, the 2000 election was maybe the worst (popular vote winner loses election), but having a tied EC would have to rank up there.

Based on current polls, this is the most likely tie scenario:

JFK: CO IA ME MI MN MO NH OR PA
GWB: AZ FL LA NM NV OH TN VA WI WV

There are thousands of different tie scenarios depending how the above 19 in-play states break (not all equally likely). That is, there are 2^19 or 524,288 different combinations, 12,907 of which are ties. Based on current estimates, the probability of a tie is currently 1.5%.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Don't see AR in the mix

but I assure you my friends and I are doing our darndest to make sure it goes for Kerry. Six votes might not seem like much, but if it is close, it could make the difference.

[goju]

2. Wow

Way to crunch the numbers! Have we ever had a tied EC? I have a poll in GD asking if the EC should be eliminated btw.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. I really don't see that happening.

For one, I believe Kerry's going to win a lot more comfortably than it seems right now. There's only one 100% true law in politics, and that is "People that have an axe to grind get their asses out to vote." Further, many conservatives aren't enthused about voting for Bush either, and though they MAY, they're not going to make it a priority to go vote. That's something no poll can take into account.

[UrbScotty]

4. One of many reasons why We NEED Democrats in control of Congress!

I don't care if the odds of us taking back Congress are 300,000,000:1 against us. We need to make sure Democrats control the House and Senate.

[FARAFIELD]

5. ACTUALLY A MORE LIKELY TIE SCENARIO

If it holds that BUSH wont win a state that GORE Won, and Kerry who is ahead in new hampshire just adds nevada its a Tie. That only requires the switching of two states from last time OR just one state if you believe that Kerry will win new hampshire anyhow. The irony is that he could also just add colorado from GORES state and its a tie! Any tie scenario though should start with a list of GORES states and just add.

[jmknapp]

7. past performance

Any tie scenario though should start with a list of GORES states and just add.

I would prefer to go by current polls. For example, the latest LA Times poll has Kerry behind in Wisconsin, a Gore state.

Iowa went for Gore by 0.3% and New Mexico by 0.0%. The Gore states are not locks for Kerry, and neither are the Bush states locks for the GOP side.

[onehandle]

6. Tied=GOP House picks Bush/Cheney.

However, the odds of a tie is very unlikely.

Especially since Kerry is going to clean smirk's clock.

[Jack Rabbit]

8. This speculation reminds me of the 1973 NL East pennent race

There was for a while a mathmatical possibly of a five-way tie for first with each team finishing 80-82 (that's right, below .500). My roommate and I even looked at the schedule of remaining games and found it possible. Speculating about that was a lot of fun, but it wasn't going to happen.

The Mets emerged as division champions that year. No playoff was necessary.

A tie in the electoral college is possible, but very improbable.

[jmknapp]

9. electoral-vote.com

Note that the electoral vote predictor at http://electoral-vote.com currently has Kerry with 270 EVs. So we are in tie territory at the moment.

[featherman]

10. Don't count on CO for this scenario

I agree with one of the above posters. The most likely tie scenario is holding the Gore states and adding NH and NV for 269.
While IA and WI are a concern with polls being quite close or even +1-2 for Bush sporadically, I believe it likely that both will fall into the Kerry column. Both have voted DEM for the past four elections. These are the ONLY two Gore states that are causing me much concern right now.
NH is likely back in the DEM column and Nevada is looking good for Kerry...close but maybe about +2. So the Gore state plus NH and NV gives Kerry 269.
A EV win must come from flipping any one of these 2000 Bush states: AZ, CO, MO, AR, LA, TN, OH, WV, VA, NC, FL. Most likely but far from certain at this point are FL, OH, WV
ps I will repeat this as often as I can on DU: Oregon is NOT a swing state. Don't be deceived...it is and will be a DEM state for the FIFTH straight election and will likely end up +4-5 for Kerry. It has a popular DEM Governor , 4 out of 5 DEM Representatives, and a popular DEM Senator (Wyden) polling at 60+ %. It is a fiction that Bush has a even a moderate chance to win Oregon. Nader pulled 5.5% in 2000 but has not made the ballot yet. Even if he does his support is likely to drop under 2% anyway.

[caffefwee]

11. There is no tie

If it's tied Bush wins because Congress then chooses the president and the right wing runs Congress.