Rassmussen: Kerry lead in California back up to 9%

[bluestateguy]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/California%20August%2028.htm

Obviously that poll from last week showing Kerry up only 3% was a fluke.

[EST]

1. cool

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Latest Zogby poll is extremely reliable and positive

Zogby Poll is solid Kerry, low margin of error, high confidence

99 percent confidence (not 95 like most), 1 percent margin of error (not usual 3 or 4 percent).

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=686912#686922

Expect a huge Bush bounce: 10 to 16 points (wink)

[fujiyama]

3. Actually that'd be a 9 point lead

51-42 but that's close enough to 11 points (I think that's the margin by which Gore won it).

That SUSA poll was an outlier.

[alcuno]

4. I'm in Illinois. How can Illinois be more liberal than California?

I don't get it?

[fujiyama]

10. Illinois

actually gave Gore a slightly higher margin of victory than California. In '00 Gore won by 11.7 points in CA. He won by 12 in Illinois. Illinois has been trending strongly democrat in the last few years. Same goes with NJ. Funny thing is all three were considered GOP bastions in the past.

[lil-petunia]

15. and don't forget, there are a bunch

of repukes in California. Some parts of it are no better than the bible belt.

so, as a state, it averages out a tad. Illinois is moderate, for the most part. more liberal in the cities, more conservative in the farmland.

[featherman]

5. Hey, if we're worried about losing California

then it will be a McGovern or Mondale type debacle. Not happenin'.
The Pacific states (HI, CA, OR, WA) will remain DEM in 2004.

[IronLionZion]

6. Why was it low in the first place?

Cali is a very dark blue state and should be safely in the Kerry column.

What's more interesting is the promising closeness in Colorado, Tennesse, Virginia, Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, etc.

[DaveinMD]

7. I think

its really 12. I doubt is under double digits.

[CrazyAtheist]

8. California is 100% Kerry

[newyawker99]

12. Hi CrazyAtheist!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[MoonRiver]

9. Fluke? I think not. Deliberate manipulation of data is what I call it.

Easy to do and it happens all the time. Only now the future of the world is at stake in this horserace.

[WI_DEM]

11. well the Rasmussen poll had Kerry up by 18-points in Calif last month

so they are spinning it that he lost half of his lead. But yeah that Survey USA poll showing a three point Kerry lead was discredited at the time. But a nine-point lead in a Dem state like California isn't overly reassuring either.

[fujiyama]

13. I would guess

that 18 points was also an outlier. He had Kerry with a 19 point lead in Maine months ago as well...but then it was all the way down to 1. Then it stabilized at around 5. Rasmussen's numbers are always kinda weird.

Kerry will win NJ, IL, and CA by decent margins (10-15 points), but I don't see Kerry winning any state other than NY, MA, and RI by 20+ points.

[Warren DeMontague]

14. It was more than a fluke. It's been wholly discredited.

"Survey USA" had a sample of more republicans than democrats, which is NOT indicative of California.

Next person who mentions that stupid poll has to eat a big jar of habaneros.