I am getting nervous about the Election. Will you re-assure me that people

[Finbar]

will come to their senses and vote out Bush?
Looking at EV Poll predictions,

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

can one not help but get nervous?

Any reassurances?

[David Dunham]

1. We can win but we will have to work very, very hard.

[displacedtexan]

2. Since you're nervous, you should rearrange the letters in your name...

"Barfin'" might help you feel better!

Unless you see the actual questions asked, the weighting, and the complete methodology of the polling company, don't trust the results.

[Finbar]

5. That's cute.

[michigandem2]

3. Its going to be a long dog fight but we can win

these polls are just rediculous..I mean the only time I will work myself up into a frenzy over a poll...is in October..right now..it is neck and neck...sure Bush might be up in one but Kerry is up in another...its really too close to predict a real winner right now..but it will take LOTS of hard work..and lights of punching back...once this little dream sequence this week is over..its all a new game...keep the faith..quit reading polls and lets get the voters to the polls on NOvember 2

[WI_DEM]

4. The conventions this year are meaningless

It will be the debates which will be crucial. There will be 2-3 between Bush and Kerry and 1 between Edwards and Cheney. All Kerry has to do to be the next president is show his human side a little, don't be smug, offer concrete proposals to counter the mess Bush made, and when Bush hits him with everything he has (thanks to Rove) to express his sorrow that the only way Bush seems to be able to campaign is by going negative. If he does all of this he will reassure the electorate which more than half of which doesn't want Bush again. They do however, want Kerry to give them a reason to vote for him.

[maine_raptor]

6. 60 odd days to go

The vote did not swing to Ronnie Raygun until the last 10 days or so in 1980....chill out, but work hard.

[SaveElmer]

7. Ignore the margin...concentrate on Bush's numbers

Any state where he consistently polls 47% or lower he will lose. At 48-49% he will most likely lose (taking Nader into account). Doesn't really matter at this stage what Kerry's number is...most undecideds swing for the challenger. There is no current battleground state where Bush has polled consistently at 50% or above.

[Shoeempress]

8. We absolutely have to work harder then ever. But my (if I may be immodest

brilliant hubby has an interesting theory. The media needs to have a tight race or there is nothing to report. His theory is that all of the polls are being reported as being very close just to keep us glued to the reports. While I love this theory, at the same time, we are canvassing every weekend, writing letters and doing lots of other volunteering. So, go volunteer but mull this theory over, while phone banking, canvassing or anything else you can do to help.

[graywarrior]

9. It hasn't even started yet

Wait til the RNC is over. I know from living in Boston my entire life, Kerry is ruthless. Trust, my friend. It's up to all of us to fight.

[fob]

11. This is what I've heard and I think they are letting everyone stew

just about perfectly. For the smearvets (or my new favorite The Shit Floats Vets - Thanks DU), everyone wanted them to hit back sooner and while they waited everyone got more anxious and worried, the tension built and they responded well. Now they are still getting mileage out of the story because people are discussing how the shit floaters lies should have been responded to earlier. So Kerry gets coverage, the shitfloaters lies get called as lies and the end effect is minimal if any damage.

I think they need to let the current crop of repuke lies stew a little longer too. Once the convention is over, let the "bounce" stories come out, give bush*co the following week to feel in control and don't start shit until after the 9/11 retrospective is over. Week of 9/16/04 it will be officially "Brought On". bush*s convention time is set up to sucker Kerry in to a major response and expenditure that will go nowhere because bush* will get tons of free coverage for the anniversary of his September 11 Fuck Up.

That doesn't mean fold up the tent, that would be a tell to rove, you gotta do your daily campaigning and responses, but hold the big guns til you see the 9/11 fest go by.


JMO

[capriccio]

10. Link to perspective

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000619.php

[9119495]

12. Thank goodness for the short American attention span

Do you remember how it seemed Dean was sure to win the nom? Do you remember how the CIA leak of Wilson's wife would bring down the administration? No one does aparently. So any polls today are meaningless. If it's to stressful, do your campaign volunteer work, go into media blackout and begin paying attention in October. Even this convention and Georgie's bounce will be distant past for most people before October 1st.

[59millionmorons]

13. Sure read this and then turn your TV off until the election day

No incumbent who served his full term in Gallup poll history has ever won re-election when he was not leading by atleast 9 points by September since Roosevelt in 1946 when he only lead by two. Thats 6 out of 7 full term incumbents who had a 9 point lead or more by this time who have won. The three who didnt have lost. Bush is now only tied. Remember back then they did not use likely voters only registered.

Caviat-Truman was down in 1948, but he took over after the death of Roosevelt. Gallup called that race for Dewey(Dewey lead in Sept was by 9). Well we know what happened there.

Caviat-Ford also was not a full term president.

INCUMBENT WINNERS-
1940-Roosevelt lead by 9.(Roosevelt won)
1944-Roosevelt lead by 2.)Roosevelt won)
1956-Eisenhower lead by 11. (Eisenhower won)
1964-Johnson lead by 30.(Johnson won)
1972-Nixon lead by 28 points.(Nixon won)
1984-Reagan lead by 21.(Reagan won)
1996-Clinton lead by 21.(Clinton won)

INCUMBENT LOSERS-
1980-Carter lead Reagan 44-40(Carter lost)
1976-Carter lead Ford 47-45 (Ford lost)(not a full term incumbent)
1992-Clinton lead Bush by 9 (bush lost)
2004-Bush and Kerry tied 47-48 (?????)

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1255
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1249
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1246
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1237
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1234

[bobbyboucher]

14. Post a few more times before you

whine about being worried two months out.

[Finbar]

19. one

[Finbar]

20. two

[Finbar]

21. three

[Finbar]

22. Now can I "Whine" ? Or do I have to be a member of some "700" club

to have a real discussion?

[blm]

15. People will have the opportunity to see them side by side at the debates.

It will be a matter of competence. Kerry speaks much more authoritatively than Bush on every issue, including terrorism. The people will have the chance to absorb that fact then.

[MoonRiver]

16. I'm nervous too. But I'm working and praying hard.

Beyond that it's out of my hands. Try to be at peace.

[Darby]

17. What does working hard mean to all of you?

Everyone said it was a great and fair idea to file an ethics complaint against O'Neill with the state bar, but apparently no one actually did anything about it.

[mimitabby]

18. mad vs same old stuff and...

all i can say is compare what you see and hear to 4 years ago.
4 years ago, a lot of us were having trouble seeing the difference
between dolled up chimpy and Gore.
Now we've all seen him far too often without his makeup on..
we've seen the truth. MANY quiet, intelligent GOP people are shaking their head and saying ANYTHING but b*. or "I voted for that sob last time but i sure as hell won't this time"

Many quiet intelligent Democrats are saying GOOD GRIEF< WHY didn't I vote last time!!
and there are many grass roots organizations stirring up youth,
like Http://www.musicforamerica.org
and for some really upbeat stuff, go to Michael Moore's site and read the letters he is getting from the GOP folks that have seen his movie!

m

[Piperay]

23. Wish I could reassure you but

I am scared too and everyday I get more apprehensive. :scared: I'm not giving up but as they say 'hope for the best but expect the worst", that's what I'm doing.

[lancdem]

24. You sound like I did a few days ago when I was down

Try this site for EVS: http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com