New ABC Poll -It Can't Get Any Closer...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Bush -49%


Kerry 49%




www.pollingreport.com




This is virtually unchanged from their last poll which had Kerry up 49% -47%


Hold on , boys and girls, this is going to be a long ride...


As an aside I don't think the ABC/Washington Post Poll ever had Gore leading or tied in 00....

[andino]

1. Ummm

Weren't we up at the start of the month?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. 49% -47% Within The MOE

This is going to be like the 80 race with Carter and Reagan exchanging leads into October however I don't think either candidate will win a landslide like Reagan at the end....


I doubt any earthly being knows how this will work out...

[fujiyama]

6. Yeah Kerry was up

by a slight bit, but he's lost a little bit of ground (about 2%) over the last month (Shit Boat Liars, Kerry's ad blackout, more negative Bush ads, etc).

[jonboy7]

16. We Should Have Gone Dean

I've seen this too many times. The numbers are moving way too fast toward Dumbya. WE SHOULD HAVE GONE WITH DEAN! I CAN'T STAND IT. I can't stay here if that stupid idiot remains president, and it looks like he will for sure!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Does Another Duer Want This One?

It's too easy....

[bigwillq]

29. Give him/her a little bit of a break

It's only his/her first post.

Hmmmm....

[fujiyama]

2. Nader will not take 3%

nationally. I don't see him taking that much in any state this time.

However, this is interesting though. It's amazing how it's almost literally 50/50.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Nader Only Has ONE In This Poll.... (nt)

[fujiyama]

23. OK

My fault. I didn't check it out. :dunce:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Fugghetaboutitt (nt)

[GingerSnaps]

3. Fox's Poll has Kerry leading in the poll over Bush LOL

And so does NPR but they won't mention either one of them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. He's Leading By One In The Fox Poll

Not so different than being tied....


The Greenberg Poll is already old....

[QuidditchFan]

5. HellOOOO????? Paging UNDECIDED!!!

There ARE no undecideds.

Go register someone. New voters are going to decide this election.

[Jawja]

9. Gore took the lead

1 day before the election in 2000 in only 1 poll. It was the Zogby poll, which nailed the national vote down to percentage.

As I remember, Bush led throughout the Fall of 2000. Gore had a lead until Bush "won" the debates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. The Final CBS Poll Showed Gore Puling Ahead...

I think Harris and Newseek had it tied which it essentialy was.....


Zogby picked Gore by 2% when he won by .05% but still a nice job cuz he picked the right winner....

[Jawja]

18. Thanks for that clarification.....

And as we all know, Gore won the popular vote and the election, had Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris had not committed election fraud in Florida.

I feel that * will benefit from a brief bounce after the convention, but Kerry will overtake him and win the election in November.

I just don't see the American People giving this moron 4 more years.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Most Of The Major Polls Were Within The MOE

they just all picked the wrong winner...

[movonne]

10. Well I really don't believe this....I still think there are more us than

them. And of course he will get a big bounce after the convention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. All The Polls Have It A Pickem....

The debates will be critical...

[progressivebydesign]

15. AND polls show "likely voters"

The ones that will push it one way or the other, are the ones that do not appear on the radar. The ones that have just registered. Bush will get his walking papers from the newbie voters, and the party switchers. I know so many people, who will vote for Kerry, who do NOT have a home phone (cell phone only), or are never home to answer polls (they have busy lives), or have not voted before (doesn't show up on the voter rolls). There is NO way Bush is even close to Kerry.. not after people have seen how screwed up the nation has become under his "leadership". Can anyone name, besides Zell Miller and Dennis Miller, anyone who is voting for Bush this time, but Gore last time? Do you know any REAL Democrats who are voting for Bush?

Me neither.

The polls this year are like assholes. Everyone has one, and they all stink. No actually.. polls this time are skewed because, in the interest of saving money.. they poll as few as 500 people, they poll too often, AND many of the polls are NOT financed by OBJECTIVE sources. The ones to watch are the ones with no financial ties to corporate interests.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. All The Polls More Or Less Confirm One Another... (nt)

[DemMother]

13. This is in a separate post--NPR survey shows Kerry 50, Bush 45

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That's Already An Old Poll....

It concluded on the 24th...


The ABC Poll concluded on the 29th...

[progressivebydesign]

17. Apples and Oranges.

ABC is a corporate entity, owned by a vast conglomerate of republican interests. Becaue their poll is newer, does not make it more accurate. The polls are worthless this time, they're overused, overpublicized, and too easily maniuplated. AND the sample sizes are WAY too small!! I refuse to let 500 people who were actually home to answer the phone, reflect how I'll be voting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Of Course A Newer Poll Is More Accurate Than An Older Poll

If that wasn't the case we could cite polls from March....

Polling is based on inferential statistics...

Geneticists use inferential statistics for DNA sampling....


There's only about 40,000 DNA samples in the data base but geneticists can infer matches from this small sample into into the billlions...

Flip a coin at home... I'll bet if you flip it five time you might get four heads and one tail but if you flip that coin 5,000 times I'll bet you get near 2,500 heads and 2,500 tails...


www.ncpp.org

I can't believe the members of the above group are part of the VRWC....

[Malva Zebrina]

19. I can't believe it is that close

I don't know what people are thinking, but it sure is something of which I would not be proud.

The WH propaganda has been successful. It does not matter to almost fifty percent of the people in the United States that tens of thousands of people have been slaughtered on lies? That our young have died to the tune of almost a thousand of them?


From what I am listening to, it seems perfectly fine that we went in a took down a dictator--Saddam Hussein as Foley said on the Randi show today, and killed tens of thousands of innocent people? Is this what we are about. Taking down bad dictators and slaughtering people in the process in order to bring them freedom from the dictator

Arghh--I am fed up with war and killing and destitution and desperation and death for no good reason other than that we think we have the absolute right to take down a dictator who was no threat to us or to anyone, so devastated was that country.

What on earth is driving these people?

[hippiegranny]

21. I can't believe it is that close either

and it probably isn't. Reality is probably 55%-45%, advantage Kerry. But the complicit GOP driven media has to paint it as a close race in order 1. keep the ratings up, and 2. make things look plausible when the pugs cheat to steal again, and the media turns a blind eye again.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Why 55% -45%

Why not 60% -40%...


Don't forget Chimpy got 48% against the veep of a president who presided over the longest period of economic expansion in the history of the republic...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. "What on earth is driving these people"

Many folks think Bush is a nice fella...


Why?



It's beyond me....



By an measurable standard he has been a miserable failure as president...