Here is how Kerry gets 289 EV with 48.37% of the popular vote

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry	EV	Vote
Total	289	48.37%

AL		37.75
AK		34.65
AZ*	10	50.45
AR*		47.75
CA	55	52.05
CO*		49.75
CT		47.55
DE	3	55.45
DC	3	86.75
FL*		49.81
GA		39.2
HI		49.65
ID		28
IL	21	53.5
IN		41.2
IA*	7	52.45
KS		37.2
KY		39.75
LA		37.8
ME	4	50.05
MD	10	54.05
MA	12	58.1
MI*	17	51.6
MN*	10	50.75
MS		31.35
MO*		49.585
MT		35.1
NE		33.75
NV*		48.9
NH*	4	51.9
NJ	15	50.8
NM*	5	50.9
NY	31	54.8
NC*	15	50.15
ND		33.9
OH*		46.45
OK		38.75
OR*	7	54.45
PA*	21	52.6
RI	4	52.9
SC		42.75
SD		37.1
TN*	11	50.3
TX		37.75
UT		23.65
VT	3	52.95
VA*		48.45
WA*	11	53.43
WV*		43.35
WI*	10	51.45
WY		28.6
	289	

[WI_DEM]

1. Wisconsin has been looking pretty shaky of late

but hopefully we can pull it off.

[murielm99]

5. My parents are in Wisconsin.

They visited last weekend, and I made ABSOLUTELY SURE that they are voting for Kerry.

I will also call them on election day and make sure they get there.

That's two, anyway.

[ClassWarrior]

8. We'll nail it. You volunteering?

[aquart]

2. Tennessee was stolen successfully last time.

Any reason to believe that won't happen again?

[Syrinx]

3. Where did you get the percentages?

Just wondering. While I doubt Kerry will win Alabama, he will get more than 38%.

[TruthIsAll]

12. I ran the 5000 simulations proj. Kerry's % vote and chose this outcome.

There were a number of other trials with similar results.

[Syrinx]

13. please forgive my ignorance

But what is the 5000 simulations proj?

[TruthIsAll]

14. I ran 5000 simulated elections, with Kerry's 48.37% national vote

calculated by weighting each state voting percentage according to the states proportional number of votes cast in the last three elections.

[jean]

4. TiA, is it possible to factor in BBV for the areas that have diebold?

[elperromagico]

6. Do you have Kerry losing Hawaii? n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

9. That was an obvious oversight

Winning both North Carolina and Tennessee is where things get goofy

[elperromagico]

11. I should hope so.

Islanders are wise people; they are Kerry people. :)

I think Kerry could narrowly win Colorado and Tennessee, even with Nader in the race. I'm not so sure about NC, but it's possible.

[ISUGRADIA]

7. Seems like a possible scenario with the states listed except

Hawaii going REP? That would seem unlikely.

[TruthIsAll]

10. bad post removed

tia

[Merlin]

15. Some of these are shaky. Absolutely must get either FL, OH or MO .

I don't see NC or TN coming our way. HI will, but how many EVs?

We desperately need another big state. Just one should do it.

Does MO have any BBV issues?