This is NOT good news..

[NeoConsSuck]

and please don't shoot the messenger:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[donco6]

1. Bad link?

Can't get through.

[Drifter]

2. Come on ...

Bush's lead is going to fade faster than a fart in the wind.

Cheers
Drifter

[XNASA]

3. Saw that earlier today, but.....

They admit they use polls from Strategic Vision which is a GOP poll.

I wouldn't worry about it.

[fujiyama]

4. that site sucks

it treats all polls the same.

strategic vision is a republican polling firm. thats where many of the new polls are from.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. All You Need To Do To Turn A State Poll Favoring Kerry

Into A State Poll Favoring Bush Or Vice Versa is just include more members of your party in the sample...


For your poll to be validated on Election Day you must correctly estimate the percentage of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who will be voting....


It's that simple...

[fujiyama]

23. I haven't been one

to start flipping out based on a Zogby Interactive poll or a Strategic Vision poll. Both are very questionable. I'm also kind of skeptical of LA Times polls. I'm not sure if they are necessarily biased...but weren't they way off on the recall?

It does seem like Kerry has slipped by about 2-3 points in many states. It's obvious that he has lost some ground in FL and WI and many southern states as well.

BTW, why do partisan polls (like Strategic Vision) usually have their party overrepresented? Is it usually for PR and morale purposes?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. They Aren't Doing Their Clients Any Favor By Telling Them

They Are Winning If They Aren't...


I suspect Democratic pollsters "overweight" Democrats......



Prior to the Swift Boat brouhaha I felt it was a pickem with a small edge for Kerry... I know think it's a pickem with a small edge to Bush...


Who knows if and when the pendelum will turn again.... I suspect it will.....

[fujiyama]

25. That's what I was thinking

How does a polling agency do its clients a favor by giving them false hopes?

Then again these aren't internal polls which may give the candidates a better idea. I think these public partisan polling firms are doing it for marketing/pr/morale purposes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. You Nailed It.....

These aren't internal polls but I suspect if a polling organization got caught with different polls for their clients and the public they would be discredited in short time...

[HootieMcBoob]

5. That's the most depressing thing I've seen in months

Kerry had always had a pretty good lead up till now.

[Bluebear]

6. No not good news at all, but this week should help

"We can win, we can't win war on terror" plus the purple heart bandaids making fun of war wounded....

[mimitabby]

7. take a deep breath and don't look there for another week or so

this too shall change. I promise.
(mama mimi)

[CatWoman]

8. dupe

been there

done that

[fertilizeonarbusto]

9. Um

I want whatever this person who put this together is smoking. Pennsylvania has been blue for a while now. So have other states he has on Shrub's column.

[Tempest]

Florida for Bush?

No way in Hell.

Kerry will take Florida with more than 50% of the vote.

[CatWoman]

10. ....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x700149

[richmwill]

11. Don't fret yet

This race wavers every single day. I don't believe that PA will go for Bush at all. Missouri, Wisconsin, and Ohio are all within 5 points or so- still well within striking range, with a long 2 months left to go.

[Walt Starr]

12. MEME: This race is George Bush's to lose

Learn it. Live it. Love it.

Put THEM on the defensive.

[Virginian]

13. Isn't that part of the Bump from the convention?

[abrock]

14. WAKE UP.

First of all, this is a major dupe. Most of us have seen it.

Second, it is run by a Kerry supporter who is just trying to get the truth out there. I don't know why he included the results of the latest Strategic Vision (GOP pollsters) but he did, and thats the ONLY REASON, let me repeat that again so you don't miss it, THE ONLY REASON Bush is "Ahead in the polls"

He isn't.

[Killarney]

15. I think it's because of Strategic Vision

I look at this site every day and I, too, was dismayed when I saw that Bush had the electoral lead for the first time.

However, when I moused over some of the states that I thought seemed fishy, I noticed that they were based on the latest Strategic Vision polls. I could be wrong, but I think Strategic Vision is a GOP company so their polls are probably specifically produced to lean right.

My guess is that when the next round of polls come out from Zogby, Rasmussen, or someone like that, that we will see the states in question turn blue or blue outline again.

[flpoljunkie]

19. Strategic Vision is a GOP company! Poll done pre-RNC, are SBVFT fallout

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

However, it is worth noting that pollsters aren't always neutral and within the law always do what the client asks for. Strategic Vision normally works only for Republicans and results like these that contradict results from other pollsters in so many states do raise some eyebrows. The polls were completed before the GOP convention opened, so that cannot explain it, but we might be seeing the effect of the swift boat ads.

Polls have become marketing tools for the candidates. According to www.race2004.net "during the 2000 primary race Karl Rove had pollsters call Republican voters in South Carolina asking if John McCain's black baby born out outside of his marriage influenced their decision on whether to support him. The question was not only racist, it was misleading. McCain and his wife adopted a baby from Bangladesh. The child isn't black in the "traditional" sense, and the baby was born outside his marriage because he was adopted."

On the state graphs the pollsters are indicated, to make it easier to look for suspicious patterns. I will use all the Strategic Vision polls, but on the spreadsheet, new polls will now be marked with (R) or (D) where there is a clear affiliation (as opposed to the CEO's personal preference).

[hippiegranny]

17. that site was freeped long ago

fuhgeddaboudit

[iconoclastic cat]

18. Don't fret about the daily crap. Look at the trend.

Bush always ends up lower than where he began before each bump. Don't lose your mind of that silly chart.

[xyboymil]

20. Christ people: RELAX! Stragetic Vision is a RW Polling source..

How many times do DU'ers need to understand this?

Stragetic Vision is hired almost EXCLUSIVELY by the Republican Party to poll. Their number are going to be scewed to Bush in nearly every poll they do.

Secondly, these polls were taken last week where Kerry was cleary hurt a bit for the SWB bullshit. Now we have the RNC which won't do much to assist Kerry in polling numbers.

Take a breath..

Relax.

The world is not coming to an end.

[Droopy]

21. Pennsylvania for Bush? I seriously doubt it. n/t

[featherman]

22. This is a good site and worth checking regularly

The guy running it is a DEM but his rules are "last poll wins" so if a poll comes out on 8/27 showing Kerry plus 6 in PA but a GOP leaning poll comes out 8/28 showing Bush +2, the last poll shows up. This changes on a daily basis and will shift back to Kerry soon. Kerry will take PA and IA and probably WI for 264. The EC is all about whether Kerry wins one or more of these: NV, AZ, CO, MO, AR, OH, WV, FL, VA, NC.

[shawcomm]

27. REE-LAX!

[Eternal_Vigilance]

28. Suck it up guys

I'm tired of reading through all these threads, lambasting Kerry's sudden slide in the polls and his supposed inevitable defeat in November. Everyone knew this was gonna happen as soon as the RNC was rolling around. They've thrown their lies and mud at us. It's time for us to suck it up, roll up our sleeves, and fire back. Its not over until the fat lady sings. In my opinion, she hasn't even reached the stage yet.

Its time to buckle down, fight back these GOP smears, and elect Kerry-Edwards in November.

[incapsulated]

29. What I want to see:

Clinton and Clark stumping down in Arkansas! We can take that State, but we have to work it, damnit!