New CNN National Poll: Obama leaps ahead 51-46 (RV) 51-47 (LV)

[Politics_Guy25]

http://www.cnn.com

Yay!!

Voters very unhappy about republican mismanagement of the economy and we've flipped MEN and SENIORS to our side. YAY!


September 22, 2008
Republicans blamed, Obama gains, over financial crisis
Posted: 04:03 PM ET

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

WASHINGTON (CNN) – A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll suggests that by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans blame Republicans over Democrats for the financial crisis that has swept across the country the past few weeks — one factor that may have contributed to an apparent increase in Barack Obama’s edge over John McCain in the race for the White House.

In the new survey, released Monday afternoon, 47 percent of registered voters questioned say Republicans are more responsible for the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market, with 24 percent saying Democrats are more responsible. One in five of those polled blame both parties equally, and 8 percent say neither party is to blame.

The poll also indicates that more Americans think Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, would do a better job handling an economic crisis than McCain, the Republican presidential nominee. Forty-nine percent of those questioned say Obama would display good judgment in an economic crisis, 6 points higher than the number who said the same about McCain. And Obama has a 10 point lead over McCain on the question of who would better handle the economy overall.

These numbers appear to be affecting the battle for the presidency. Fifty-one percent of registered voters are backing Obama, who now holds a 5 point edge over McCain, at 46 percent. McCain and Obama were tied at 48 percent apiece in the previous CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey. Obama's advantage, while growing, is still within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Where did Obama make his gains?

"In two core McCain constituencies: Men, who now narrowly favor Obama. And seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

When including only those people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same: Among likely voters, Obama has a 4 point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

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[iceman66]

1. 51%!!!

Awesome!

[nyhuskyfan]

2. Great news

I'm a little confused at this paragraph:

These numbers appear to be affecting the battle for the presidency. Fifty-one percent of registered voters are backing Obama, who now holds a 5 point edge over McCain, at 46 percent. McCain and Obama were tied at 48 percent apiece in the previous CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey. Obama's advantage, while growing, is still within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.


5 > 3, isn't it?

[jakem]

8. i could be wrong, but i though both numbers have a 3% MOE

so for a 3% MOE, you need 7% to be sure.


in other words, polls suck.






but i like this one!

:hi:

[Politics_Guy25]

9. No no

Since the margin of error is 3 percent, the numbers could be 54-43 in favor of Obama or conversely 49-48 Mccain or 50-49 Mccain because a 3 point swing would change the nunbers rather drastically and that's where the MOE comes in.

[livetohike]

Obama breaks 50%!

GOBAMA! :bounce:

[SuperTrouper]

3. My mother-in-law and her best friend, both McCain supporters have flipped this past weekend:

One is voting for Obama now and the other is not voting at all. Advantage Obama

[faithfulcitizen]

10. Why did they flip exactly?

always looking for good talking points! thanks! :)

[SuperTrouper]

18. SARAH PALIN!!!! They both (they are in their 70's) said that she is not

qualified and they think that McCain will die in office and they do not want Sarah as President. They quoted Charlie Gibson's interview.

[faithfulcitizen]

22. Awesome. Things seemed to have really turned around after the Gibson interview.

Can't wait to see Katie Couric with her. Hoping Katie will throw a curve ball.

[d.amber]

24. Wow...my mom in her 70's also feels the same way.

My parents are GOP from AZ and they are both about McCain's age. They were VERY concerned about Palin as a VP choice. They both wanted Mitch Romney. Basically, they have seen their freinds start to die. My mon said that neither her mother or grandmother lived beyond 74 and pointed out that McCain will be 73 when signing in.

It will be real interesting to see how FL breaks down.

[Curtland1015]

4. Woo! So, who does that leave in favor of McCain?

Male pigeons age 3-5 & the all important female miniature schnauzer demographic?

[Doremus]

15. Hey, my miniature schnauzer resents that remark.

;)

:rofl:

[Arugula Latte]

16. He's got White Christian Males over the age of 90 who think the world is flat.

So, he's got that goin' for him. ;)

[skipos]

5. Good news! And it isn't a Zogby Interactive poll or ARG poll,

so it might actually be accurate.

[ericgtr]

6. Great news, remember that Bill Clinton in his prime never polled above 50

This is telling.

[Sugarcoated]

12. That probably drives him nuts, too

[Hope And Change]

7. Could you post the link please?

[sharp_stick]

14. Linky..

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

[vanderBeth]

11. Nice

:)

[TwilightGardener]

13. Explains why McFail/PerDiem are lashing out at Obama with shit

like the Rezko ad--probably bad internal numbers, too--gotta change the channel off the economy and back onto scary black stranger.

[yellerpup]

17. If the "likely" voters aren't registered by now

how likely are they to vote? I don't buy likely voter numbers at this late hour.

[Thrill]

19. Now we know why they are trying to bring up Rezcko again?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. This makes no sense. A DEM who leads among men leading by 5%? Impossible.

A Democratic presidential candidate who leads among men would have to be up by at least 10%.

[stubertmcfly]

21. RV/LV

Pardon my ignorance, but could someone translate these acronyms for me?

[alcibiades_mystery]

23. Booya-kasha

[SeeHopeWin]

25. Obama 58 - McAss 39% on November 4th!

[Politics_Guy25]

26. Sure...clarification

RV is registered voters and LV is likely voters. No problem!

[stubertmcfly]

33. Thanks!

Sometimes the obvious answers elude me.

[OnionPatch]

27. So what group is left to support McCain now?

Knuckle-dragging, basement-dwellers?

[Motown_Johnny]

34. the top 1% income group.. and morons. Nothing in between

[Motown_Johnny]

28. Kicking, just because it is so far down the page

[mvd]

29. McCain is losing everyone but the fundies

I love it!

[Sensitivity]

30. Glad to see we are all now believe that CNN IS NOT DELIBERATELY RIGGING THEIR POLLS

All poll results can be expected to be AT BEST within the MOE.

Further prediction error can be caused by factors external to sampled opinion such as unpredicted turnout patterns or directionally biased lying (Bradley effect).

Let's agree to take the bad with the good in the science of public opinion analysis.

[azliberal]

31. Great news and another poll that needs your help.

Awesome,

Here's another poll that needs help. My local PBS station (KAET) has this poll posted: http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html

The repukes are trying to load it in favor of palin (gag!).

Please stop in and vote no, she is not qualified to be a vice president.

Thanks

[asdjrocky]

32. It's really heart warming to see him break the 50% threshold.

This makes me feel hopeful.