Gergen: Too early to declare victory because Barack Obama is black

[BeyondGeography]

Cites a Stanford Univ. poll that says his race could cost him 6 points.

What an old scaredy cat Gergen is. Toobin says (and he is correct) that there was no such variance in the primaries.

[davidpdx]

1. I'm looking for that one

because I just read a long one about the fact there is no Bradley effect anymore. I'll see if I can post both of them.

[davidpdx]

6. Here is the Harvard Study

No More Wilder Eect, Never a Whitman Effect:
When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female
Candidates

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/~dhopkins/wilder13.pdf

Warning: it is 28 pages

EDIT:

Here's a story about the poll Gergen was talking about:

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=9375

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Democratic primaries are not necessarily representative of a general election

That said, I expect the Bradley effect to be countered by the tendency of late-breaking voters to go against party in power.

[BeyondGeography]

5. The Bradley Effect is 26 years old; Harold Ford outperformed the final polls in TN in 2006

The last observable victim of the Bradley Effect was David Dinkins in 1992. Gergen's "fears" will prove to be unfounded.

[AlCzervik]

3. heard it.

[writes3000]

4. And Gergen loses some of my respect right there. nt

[Barack_America]

7. It is a legitimate concern...

If it weren't, would they really have Palin down South wearing lily white and whipping her crowds into a racist frenzy with statements like, "I just don't think that our opponent sees America the way we do"?

The Bradley effect has become McCain campaign strategy.

[JustFiveMoreMinutes]

8. Ron Regan, Air America... yesterday afternoon

At least I think that was the program.

He was discussing the 'race factor' with a caller, they were saying that 10% of the people are openly racist and would never vote for a black. Of the remainder, about 6% are not so obvious and if all things can appear equal, they would vote for the white over the black man.

That ties into the 6% but cant recall the person who was stating the numbers or what studies.