Some encouraging news about the CNN poll - cheer up folks!

[bushwakker]

This is from the MYDD.com web site:

Oh yeah, and before anyone starts going on about how this is over, on October 27th, 2000 the CNN / USA Today / Gallup tracking poll had it Bush 52-39 Gore. We all know hwo that popular vote turned out less than two weeks later.


Look Bush got a bump. He gave a good speech. But all this passion to remove him and his corrupt posse from office ain't gonna just disappear. Turnout will be high and that is the GOP's worst nightmare.

Get well Big Dog woof woof!

[lancdem]

1. Sorry, that doesn't help

The problem is, Bush is now in front, and you can bet Rove won't blow Bush's lead the way Kerry sat on his.

[bushwakker]

2. Rove blew that lead in 2000 - what are you talking about?

It doesn't take a genius to elect Fundy Republicans in Texas and Rove ain't no genius. They thought they had it in the bag in 2000 and they blew it. Rove was almost persona non grata.

[lancdem]

10. True

but will Rove will make the same mistake twice?

[whalerider55]

14. the scorpion....

is what it is. i don't think rove will change his spots... he is what he is... i think, in the end, his goose-steppin' style will wear thin by about 4.5% of the electorate.

whalerider55

[George_Bonanza]

3. This is one poll contradicting the others

Zogby and Rasmussen both give modest leads to Bush that are still within the MoE. This Time poll just takes the road into the woods. Unless Zogby or USA Today or Gallup or any of the other major polls corroborate this, it's just a fluke.

[wildeyed]

11. When I looked at the zogby, bush and kerry were tied,

more or less. But the percentage of undecided was much higher than I had seen in previous polls, like 9%, up for 4 or 5%. I am not veteran poll watcher, but don't undecideds usually break for the challenger?

Anyway, I am thinking that the sky is not falling. Bush got a convention bump, the undecided will come back to kerry and my job is still to turn out the vote, same as it was yesterday, and the day before and the day before that. Sigh.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

17. Polls should be scored like the Olympics

In diving and I think gymnastics they throw out the highest and lowest scores then average them. The Time/CNN poll is being quoted not because of accuracy but because it boosts ratings.

Oh and here's a link to the Rasmussen Poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[dammit905]

4. huh?

Why does everyone on DU seem to be rooting for Bush? What do you mean it doesn't help? Kerry has the lead, "Polls don't matter..."... Bush has the lead, "Oh, it's all wrapped up." Do you like being angry?

[bushwakker]

6. I point out that Rove blew a lead much larger and later than this

one and the guy rolls up the white flag? I don't get it?

[lancdem]

7. I never said polls didn't matter when Kerry was ahead

and, no, I don't like being angry, but I am. I hate Bush, but there's no way a guy with his record should've been allowed to recapture the momentum, which he already had going into the RNC, BTW.

I'm sorry, but that's how I feel.

[pretzel4gore]

16. lol...rooting for bush (!)

the mediawhore does have one effect: it presents fiction as fact, and DU'ers fear the worst (which is bushevik success) because we wonder if maybe....just possibly....THE WORLD"S FLAT!
i'm quite sure the world's round, having gone around it, but....maybe that was just dreaming!? now the moon! it looks round (to me) but maybe foxcnn will just say that a pieplate standing up on end looks round too.
who changed adam and eve's diapers?
btw welcome to DU....
;)

[Blue_Roses]

5. Oh, come on

your posts are usually much more positive than this. Get a grip.

[lancdem]

12. It's just been a really shitty day

The whole Clinton thing upsets me, too. I know I'm venting.

[Nite Owl]

8. It isn't totally up to them if

that lead gets blown or not. I think the Kerry people have, after being hit on the head repeatedly, woken up. Honestly it isn't just Kerry that has to win this we have to do all we can and the Democratic Party has to get it's act together.

[still_one]

9. bush gave a good speech?

did you listen to the content?

privatize social security for the younger people???
what are IRAs and ROTHS about
We must not privitize social security

3/4 of al queadia caught or killed? How in the hell does he know

Working with Democrats on medicare? They haven't worked with anyone on anything, it was their way or the highway?

I could go on, but there was so much mis-information in it speech, I could gag

[Mike L]

22. The world's leading defense think-tank says AQ membership increased.

"3/4 of al queadia caught or killed? How in the hell does he know"

IISS, out of London, said only 2,000 out of the 20,000 AQ members trained in OBL's camps have been killed. In addition, the Iraq War increased AQ's recruitment. There are actually MORE AQ members now.

Bush and Rove think they can get away with this. Will they?

[ItsMyParty]

13. I think we are getting our Gallups and our Times mixed up

CNN is the only common denominator here. The first poll that was fucked up in 2000 was GALLUP. This one is TIME. I guess anything that touches CNN gets fucked up!!!

[OilemFirchen]

15. This is fucking ridiculous

I'm as much a poll junkie as any on this board, but the end-of-the-worlders who focus on a single poll - or even a snapshot of several polls at a fixed point in time - are embarassing themselves.

The Time poll showing an 11 point lead for * is bullshit. That's not Pollyanish, it's simple statistical reality. If a poll shifts dramatically without an impetus it's either because of bad data, bad methodology, an agenda, or simple incompetence.

As tight as this race is, there is simply no way that either candidate is going to run away with the election, short of an event-driven shift in attitude. And a one-hour speech doesn't cut it.

In order to believe the Time poll, one also has to believe that Democrats suddenly found Jeebus. There aren't enough undecideds to sway the poll that much, even if every single one of them decided to vote for *, and the MOE worked entirely to Bush's advantage.

No statistician with a modicum of experience would presume that, in the absence of an external cause, a one-day shift in sampling indicates anything other than bad sampling.

Time Magazine should be ashamed for releasing that poll. It's not just an outlier, it's an insult.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. Amen

I can understand why we get discouraged -- for me, it's pure frustration, I can't understand why Bush is polling anywhere near Kerry.

But this poll is obvious BS, for exactly the reasons stated. Statisitically, it's very unlikely that such a large percentage would suddenly swing to Bush.

So hang in there. Maybe it's a fluke, or sloppy polling, or maybe it's even an attempt to discourage us. Maybe it will backfire and make them overconfident. Whatever. We have work to do, and if a poll makes you want to give up, you definitely don't understand how important this election is.

[MichiganVote]

19. A pack of lies does not add up to a good speech

[Fozzledick]

20. The 4% margin of error is the give-away!

The standard for political polling is to use a sample size of 1000-1200 to produce a theoretical statistical margin of error of approximately 3%. Sometimes small, local polling organizations use a sample of half that size which has a theoretical margin of error of 4%.

There are basically three reasons to use the smaller sample:
1) It's cheaper.
2) It's faster.
3) It's less accurate.

For a small, regional organization like a local newspaper or TV station the cost is an obvious consideration, and they often use the smaller sample size for local polls. For a large national corporation like Time Warner the cost differential is insignificant but the loss of accuracy is not.

The quicker response time of a smaller sample is obviously significant for a flash response poll to a speech or event that just occurred within the last 3 or 4 hours, but for any longer time frame it's loss of accuracy is unacceptable unless cost is an overriding factor.

The 4% margin of error listed for the Time "poll" where cost and speed were not considerations is a dead give-away that it was DELIBERATELY DESIGNED TO BE INACCURATE! If they wanted it to be accurate they would have spent the money and taken the time to poll a standard sized sample, but they CHOSE to use a less accurate sample for reasons other than a shortage of money or time!

BTW, statistical margins of error in polling are based on several assumptions, including the pollster being totally honest with no political bias or financial conflict of interest, the sample being selected in a truly random manor, and an absence of subtle bias in the way the questions are phrased and asked. If any of these assumptions are not true, then the poll is NOT scientific and the results are meaninglessly unreliable.

[demcolorado]

21. better poll data here

There is a time mag poll out today that gives bush an 11 point lead. But with internals showing people trust Kerry more on everything except (the mythic) war on terror. So who knows about that poll especially in the light of this poll from a more trusted source, Zogby see it at http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857 It was taken between Aug 30 and Sept 2 and only gives bush 2 pts on Kerry, well within the margin of error. It is bush 46 and Kerry 44 with 9 undecided. The changes in polling over the last month (the period of the swift boat vets going to hell) the big increase has been in the undecided not in bush's support. That is reasonable and very workable. We should not be letting corporate america, ie time corp describe reality for us. An independent firm that does not work for either party or any big corp, like zogby, is a much better source. But don't expect the media to even mention it if they can get the big 11 point headline. Hopefully by Sunday news they will allow the zogby info come out.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi demcolorado!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[hansolsen]

23. CNN/Time not talking about state by state results. Why?

Aren't they available? Will we get them tomorrow, or is Shrub getting 93 percent in Texas, and crap in the swing states.

Seems to me if Shrub looked good in the battleground states in this poll, the Repubs would be trumpeting it from the roof tops.

Just asking??

[59millionmorons]

24. Time Magazine's poll

Time Magazine's poll of likely voters, conducted over the course of the convention: Bush 52%, Kerry 41%, Nader 3%. Zogby, over the same period and also of likely voters, Bush 46%, Kerry 44%. ARG, covering through Wednesday Sept. 1st, also among likely voters, Bush 48%, Kerry 47%.

-- Josh Marshall