SUSA Poll: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

[TheStateChief]

VERONA, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 3, 2004--The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.

SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.

...

"The Democrats are eviscerated," says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. "Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November."


http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040903005355&newsLang=en


What is happening here...

[DaveinMD]

1. this is the outfit

that had Kerry up in California by only 3. Its a Republican firm. Zogby had is a 2 point race. I'll be waiting for more neutral polls to come out.

[AuntPatsy]

2. I really don't care what the media is reporting...

I don't believe it, the majority of Americans have had enough, its all spin...

[DaveinMD]

3. its also

not a preference poll, but a prediction poll. Much different.

[okieinpain]

25. I don't like the polls, but I still think it's kerry's to lose, if he will

get on message. if bush is going to use fear then we should too. I say scare the shit out of them, make iraq look horrible, bombings, kidnappings, soldiers dying left and right.

[kikiek]

4. Nothing..really nothing. That poll is meaningless.

[Walt Starr]

6. No doubt, it's the biggest pile of shit I've ever seen served up as a

"poll"

Where the fuck do they get off? Polling people on how they expect the thing to turn out instead of how they intend to vote and then saying it has some sort of meaning?

What the fuck kind of fucked up bullshit sort of thing is that?

[kikiek]

8. I think it shows how many people believe the election will be stolen.

[alarcojon]

9. Exactly! eom

[Walt Starr]

5. This fucking thing didn't even ask how they were voting!

It's a poll about how they expect things to go!

[JI7]

11. this poll claimed New Jersey and California were close many times

it's not really reliable. i will believe the zogby poll which does show Bush is up but based on reliable info. don't some propaganda about how everyone loves bush and the democrats are scared and losing.

[cheshire]

7. try this http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

[The Shadow]

10. It's Called Bullshit!

The polls are either skewed or taken in demographically Repug areas.
Do not worry, we are right where we were a couple of weeks ago and bushhole is still struggling to maintain.

Lets look at this week for example, the RNC is already all but forgotten and it's only Friday and it is as if it never happened. Hardly even newsworthy on most of the channels other than the so-called "bounce" story. Does anyone honestly believe that the RNC's disgusting display of faux patriotism and hatred "spoke" to the masses? I didn't think so. The "bounce" they speak of is a fabrication engineered by the repugs and their media stooges with the hopes that voters, in particular Dems and Independents in America will feel that all is lost and perhaps convince some to stay home on election day. Bullshit I Say!!!
Their convention was nothing more than a repug orgy for those who attended.

Remember, Keep The Faith Everyone!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

12. Not a very scientific poll

Plus why is your author profile blocked?

[quaoar]

13. Survey USA does a lot of local polling around the country

But a lot of their samples are small. If you glance at their list of recent polls, you'll see a lot of MOEs of 4%, even 4.5%. That's fairly useless.

[kimchi]

14. They are too stupid to realize that WE KNOW the voting machines are rigged

And we've all seen the pessimism here lately. It is a damn shame that answering a question honestly these days is spun and used against you. I'm not questioning the data, I'm questioning the interpretation. Sadly, most people won't go beyond the headline.

What is happening here is that we are being subtly manipulated and we are falling for it. In the eyes of the insane, pessimism is now a sign of support. Doncha get it? We are weak and demoralized in their eyes; and although we haven't capitulated, they are convinced it is only a matter of time. Ahhhh...I love the smell of Orwell in the morning.

@#$% those @#$%ing @#$%ers.

[Guaranteed]

15. The sky isn't falling! The sky isn't falling!

Really! Nothing to see here!

[BurtWorm]

16. What an idiotic concept! That doesn't measure momentum.

It measures media saturation. The people are only regurgitating what the TV is telling them. God, what morons these pollsters be! :grr:

[loathesomeshrub]

17. Lies and manipulation, smoke and mirrors. I don't believe it.

[Thurston Howe IV]

18. A phony poll that is part of the Republican propaganda effort

There are fake polling companies that are employed by the Republicans to help sway opinion -- trying to get the old band-wagon effect going. "The Democrats are eviscerated," says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA -- this grossly partisan interpretation is a tip-off that the poll is bogus.

Which isn't to say that it isn't effective. These guys should be outed. Unfortunately, the Democrats lack an effective network of media connections to push such an outing story into the main stream media, unlike the Drudge/Rush/Hannity axis. Over the next few years, we must work to create such alternative "networks" that are capable of putting our viewpoint in front of the public.

[BlueScreen]

20. Frank Luntz, a GOP "pollster" comes to mind, here (n/t)

[BlueScreen]

21. More on Frank Luntz and the GOP strategy of polling

This comes from Media Matters's bio on Frank Luntz:

As Salon has reported, there is little reason to trust a poll taken by Frank Luntz, who was reprimanded in 1997 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research , "an association of about 1,600 individuals promotes standards of professional conduct and ethics for surveys and public opinion research," for his work polling for the Republican Party's 1994 'Contract with America' campaign platform. According to Salon, "Luntz told the media that everything in the contract had the support of at least 60 percent of the general public," but when a member of the AAPOR "filed a complaint requesting to see Luntz's research and a verification of the figure," Luntz refused, citing "client confidentiality." Salon describes Luntz as "possibly the best example of what we could call the pollster pundit: someone who both purports to scientifically poll the opinions of the public, and then also interpret that data to support his own -- in Luntz's case, conservative -- point of view." Salon added that, according to David W. Moore, author of the book The Super Pollsters, Luntz's work is little more than "propaganda" disguised as research. Luntz has explained his own methodology as follows: "Say you poll on an environmental issue, and on eight of the 10 questions the numbers are in your favor. Why release the other two? It's like being a lawyer."

As the New York Times reported on May 28, 1992, Luntz conducted polls for the presidential campaigns of Republican Pat Buchanan and third-party candidate Ross Perot in 1992. He is currently an "adjunct fellow" at the conservative Hudson Institute, and has conducted polls, as Media Transparency has shown, for organizations such as David Horowitz's Center for the Study of Popular Culture, which according to one of its direct mail appeals serves to "change the leftist, anti-American elitist culture that is dominant in the entertainment industry the idiocies and the viciousness of the radical leftism in universities, the media, mainstream churches, and everywhere else this modern plague is found."

[newyawker99]

22. Hi Thurston Howe IV!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Thurston Howe IV]

24. Thanks for the welcome!

Makes me want to have a beer!

[OilemFirchen]

19. SurveyUSA:

Peddlers of Computer Respondent Automated Polling.

Jay Leve: The Ron Popiel of pollsters.

[Misunderestimator]

23. Would TheStateChief care to explain why he posted this and never responded

to any of the posts. I really hate this kind of hit and run negativity. :mad:

[Clinton Crusader]

26. Without being attacked unmercifully

why does everyone say every single poll where either Kerry isnt leading or says * will win is bullshit? They cant ALL be bullshit, can they? Now dont say Im naive, stupid, ill informed, head in the sand, or whatever else you can come up with. I know the media is all for * . But can every single poll out there be skewed? EVERY SINGLE ONE? There has to be a grain of truth in at least ONE of them.

I dont buy a 13 pt bounce, but there has to be SOME truth in some in there.

My theory is we should act as if there IS and work as if there IS.

flame away, I got the asbestos suit out of the cleaners.
:kick:

[NJCher]

28. here's why

If you follow the various threads on the polls, you'll find that DU-ers read between the lines.

First we had the Time poll that was way out of wack and Judy Woodruff got caught on air questioning it when there were several other polls that showed neck and neck or 2 per cent at best. Her comments, which were followed by Wolf Blitzer promoting only the Time poll, show that they are fully aware of the differences in these polls yet they choose to broadcast the one favorable to bush.

Next up we have a Newsweek poll that the fine print states that they interview more Republicans than Democrats. Well, how do you think that might skew the poll?

The problem with these polls is that just about no one outside of scholars or DU-ers reads between the lines. So they are effectively creating a momentum for bush that does not exist. It's sort of like jumpstarting your car while it's on the hill. Maybe it will make it up the next hill, maybe not, but what's to lose?

Yes, these polls are bullS^*t. This is why.


Cher

[Jackpine Radical]

27. Samploe 1000 people.

Get 900 of them saying "Jeez, I think I'm the only person in the whole stupid country that's gonna vote for Kerry" and you'll get 90% saying Bush will win, but when the votes are all counted, the result will be a 90% Kerry landslide.