May I Talk about the Time Poll in Another Context???

[ItsMyParty]

I was livid last night like the rest of you at the 'renegade' Time poll that showed Bush up by 11% over Kerry as his post-convention bump. It was as I was getting ready for bed that I remembered something.

Right before this convention we were stunned over the LA Times Poll--one which leaned very pro-Dem usually. We were foaming at the mouth over Gallup as being out of line with reality, etc. May I suggest in retrospect now that this Time poll is neither "renegade" nor "total convention bounce". I think it's mostly a downward trend that unfortunately started about 2-3 weeks ago when Kerry could not spend money in August and Rove let loose the Swiftboat Losers. In other words, we have to deal with the fact that right now it is real.

I'm at the same time beyond anger with this media (again this a.m.) as they keep hyping this story every 15 minutes with ticker running it constantly below. They never gave that attention to polls when Kerry was growing steadily in his lead over Bush. If they even just talked about it at the same level they talked about Kerry, things would settle out in the next 10 days or so with Bush losing 5 points and Kerry gaining 5 points and everything tied tighter than a sailor's knot. But these immoral vultures know that if they can spin this thing right here and right now they can turn it into a "perception" in the mind of the mindless Americans and make it as much a part of Bush advertisement and propaganda as Bush's speeches and ads. It's sad that we got caught in that August doldrums and in those boats of Satan!!

[still_one]

1. By all accounts the time poll is probably not valid

most people did not watch either convention. There was no dramatic news on either side. No way did the polls move up over 11% in one day.

In my view the sampling was probably incorrect

You must remember that for the most part the polls were very wrong in the 2000 election

I believe the demographics have changes enought that just calling 1000 household randomly my not give us an accurate picture especially this year

What about young people
minorities
old people

In addition something does not seem right

right before the democratic convention the pugs were saying unless Kerry acheived a least a 10 pt bounce, after the convention, Kerry was in trouble. What happened was the poll that they were talking about, gallop, showed a two point drop, and they all said Kerry was in trouble, blah, blah. Two days later most of the other polls showed a 2 to 4 point gain.

before the pugs convention they said their will probably be no change. Boom! 10 plus point gain, exactly the amount they said Kerry needed they got. Preliminary results from the other polls show about a 2 to 4 point bounce, NOT a 10 point gain. We will see in a few days.

The thing to remember, this poll looks very suspect

The good news is that either way Kerry needs to take the gloves off and start trashing these guys.

I want to hear about Plane, the CIA agent outed, Halliburton and Cheney. The misinformation and flip flops this administration has done.

I want Kerry to tell us what he will do, and compare how bush has effectively done nothing

[ItsMyParty]

2. I just said "it was not a bounce". It's right in the pattern of the

LA Times poll and the Gallup we saw going into the convention. Some points may be "bounce" but others, I suspect, are part of a trend that began several weeks ago because Kerry wasn't able to spend and because of the swiftboat ads. We are looking at it as "bounce" and thus screaming 'invalid'---I'm saying I think it's showing something else, ie, a trend that was going on through August. Now if the media would shut up and this money playing field is back on track, these polls will move again. Media right now is trying to hype this as "the final" vote.