Kerry will be ahead by the end of the week

[sampsonblk]

1. He is fighting back now, and pounding on the war and the economy. The "strong leader" numbers should go up for him - finally.

2. Whatever benefit Bush got from his convention should finish dissipating.

3. Small boost from all the attention given to President Clinton - especially the clips, which remind people why they voted for the Big Dog twice.

4. Sad to say, several US soldiers died in Iraq recently. This underscores the stupidity of rushing in there in the first place.

[alphafemale]

1. He's already statisically even in some polls. nt

[KharmaTrain]

2. This Is Boy Blunder's Peak

I wish I had that URL for the graph on the Chimpster's popularity...how it spikes downward just as fast as it surges forward. If anything, over the past year, every uptick he has is followed by a downslide further than he previously was. This is called the "Dead Cat Bounce".

A year ago when he pulled Saddam out of the hidey-hole his popularity spike to over 60% and was back in the 40's when the first AWOL and Abu Gahbrl stories came out.

We just saw what a 70 million dollar PR blitz can do. Kerry was handcuffed as spending his campaign funds during the lag time between the DNC and the GOOP whorefest left him off the air while the GOOP opened up in full force. If Bunnypants didn't get a bounce, that would be the story. He did and now it's downhill time again.

The 1,000 death in Iraq is at hand and our media's fascination with numbers will surely mean examination of this awful invasion and how really stuck we are in this mess. Sadly, Team Kerry hasn't come up with a strong message to counter this...maybe just "anyone can do this better than Bunnypants" will work, but the campaign needs a simple message...a "Peace With Honor" type brand label on their approach in Iraq that would differentiate it from this regime.

9/11 is approaching and this is going to bring back questions about the investigation and how this regime fell asleep at the switch various times along the way. It should also be pointed out that the man responsible for "those building coming down" is still running loose and how many more terrorists this manchild has recruited though his ham-handed actions.

Kitty Kelley...she'll get enough ink...and hopefully a lot of ire and scorn from the wingnuts to make a big stink for at least a week. It'll be the yak of the gossip and comedy shows and I even see it spinning around hate radio for a while.

Here's hoping the Repugnicans believe these numbers and figure this election is a done deal. Let 'em see the finish line and think they're the hare...all they gotta do is cruise.

If Kerry pulls even in the polls in the next month, this doesn't bode good for this regime and they know it. It means Bunnypants is doing poorly in the battlegrounds...and this could help this regime collapse on itself. If Bunnypants is forced to run on his record, he loses. Kerry's job...get this campaign focused there. Our job...to do the same.

[VOX]

3. I thought this too -- high-water mark for * is now...

It will not take much to chip into this minute lead, and there is still the better part of two months to go in the campaign.

[Disturbed]

4. A Miserable Failure.

It needs to be pounded what a Miserable Failure Bush/Cheney have been and how the Dems can do a Hella lot better. This is really an election about competence of the Neo Fascists and their so-called leaders. They are failures.

[KharmaTrain]

6. The Electoral Map Still Looks Good

I know people are hitting the panic buttons but Kerry is still showing strong in the "Gore" states and still has New Hampshire, Nevada and Tennessee still showing well, too.

While Bunnypants may have surged in the beauty contest, he just pulled even or barely ahead on the real scoreboard. And there's a lot softer * states than Kerry right now.

I like what I'm seeing.

[Julien Sorel]

5. We need to stop paying attention to polls.

I couldn't believe the tidal wave of pessimism and finger pointing that broke out here over the weekend, all because of some polls. They just aren't worth it; the things sway and bounce and will continue to do so right up to November 2nd. Are we going to sway and bounce with them? This week the polls look good, so we'll see a bunch of posts speculating on who will fill what post in Kerry's cabinet "when he sweeps the chimp out of office;" next week the polls look bad, so Kerry sucks, his campaign is a disgrace, and what about those losers in the DNC.

It doesn't seem very productive.

[ItsMyParty]

7. 2 points - a question and a comment

1. Is CNN talking today about the Gallup poll that gave him only a 2% bounce? They did yesterday. Also there a polls like Rassmussen (sp?) etc. with basically nothing for Bush. Or even MSNBC?? Or are all of them beating the NW/Time to death?? Once that is straightened out (if ever)the people will go back to believing that this is far from over.
2. I'm only interested in what happened in the Battleground States. I don't give a shit if the number of Texans voting for Bush rose from 85% to 90%!!! From a few things here and there, I take it that Kerry is still holding in those states---i.e., where he was ahead he remains and where he was a litt down, he hasn't dropped further. Please if you have new state numbers, please post.

[incapsulated]

9. I agree

The battleground States are all that matter, and the polls of registered voters are preferable.

Even Gallup's poll of registered, not "likely", voters makes the race a dead heat, nationally.

[sampsonblk]

10. Answers, sorta

1. I have seen CNN and MSNBC talk about the 11-pt polls as being outliers. Fox, I think, is still claiming Bush has a huge lead.

2. The battleground polls have changed, at least at Rasmussen. Kerry has a sizeable lead in projected electoral votes just a few weeks ago, and it dropped like a hot potato. Now Bush has a lead according to their state polls. Some tossup states moved to Bush's column, and some Kerry states turned to tossups.

That makes a big difference. But should also come back to favor Kerry shortly.

[cthrumatrix]

8. just a neutral poll will do.... the damn media sucks