Salon: Why Obama has to stay above 50 percent

[OmahaBlueDog]

Take it for what it's worth. This lays out why the Republicans still believe McSame will win.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/27/undecideds/index.html

<<There's an old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. It's all about the undecideds. In a race with an incumbent candidate and a challenger, on Election Day the undecideds tend to break for the challenger, at rates as high as 4 to 1. If an incumbent is polling at, say, 47 to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, there's a good chance he's going to wind up losing 49 to 51. As it's sometimes expressed, if you're an incumbent, what you see is what you get.

The same pattern seems to be true for African-American candidates in much of the country. If you're a black candidate running against a white candidate, what you see is what you get. And it doesn't matter whether you're an incumbent or a challenger. If you're not polling above 50 percent, you should be worried. As of this writing, Barack Obama is not polling consistently above 50 percent in a number of electoral-vote-rich swing states, including Ohio and Florida. He should be worried.>>

[Drunken Irishman]

1. lol

[OmahaBlueDog]

5. Basically, this writer asserts that if Obama is

they believe every undecided voter will go to McSame.

Hmmmmmmmmm.

[IntravenousDemilo]

11. Huh?

Are you missing a word somewhere?

[cliffordu]

2. lol, too....

[GrizzlyMan]

3. I stopped reading when the author outed himself as a Repuke

I gather what he is saying is that 100 percent of the undecideds will break for McCain, which isn't going to happen.

[OmahaBlueDog]

7. Not all... merely 80%

[Skink]

4. How to let Diebold steal the election.

The only reason the pubs would't mess with this election is if they would rather let the Dems clean the mess up. And then they'd have to figure out how to safely change all the senate races on the ticket.

[amborin]

6. how can anyone be undecided at this stage?

what is 'undecided' code for?

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. Undecided can mean 3 things as nearly as I can figure

1. I am a Republican, I have always been a Republican, but I can't bring myself to vote for John McSame. What to do?
2. I don't like either of them
3. I hate making decisions. What if I pick wrong?

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. Dumbest most desperate argument I've seen in months

And I read a lot of shit.

Bone stupid.

[OmahaBlueDog]

13. Note that I did say "take it for what it's worth"

Note also that I did not say that I thought the writer was some kind of political science genius.

[tblue]

10. Oh, and the odds are so much better for McC -- polling at roughly 43%?

What kinda idjit is that?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

12. Obama is polling above 50 in enough states to win the presidency

According to the RCP average, he's above 50% in all Kerry states + IA + NM + CO, which put him over 270 EVs. He's also 49.9% in OH.
The article is a load of crap, however it is reassuring that Obama is actually over 50% in enough states.

[OmahaBlueDog]

14. Bingo!