Good indicator on all these polls- the Registered Voter margin.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

The Registered Voter totals tend to favor Kerry. They always show him ahead, tied, or very close- especially in battleground states. That in itself is a good thing, but there is a bonus-
Who do you think new voters are more likely to vote for?
I think we know the answer to that!

[TheDebbieDee]

1. I don't know....................

A lot of new voters could be the Christian fundy/hermits that have crawled from under their rocks or ventured forth from their caves to register to vote for the "Born again Christian" that we know as W.

There could be enough of them to offset the younger, draft-fearing, MTV Generation voters.

[northzax]

2. maybe, but in the battleground states

which are basically the same from 2000, all the people who are inspired by religious dogma to vote for Bush and are over 22 were tapped in 2000. The republicans had a much better get out the vote campaign than the Dems did then, but now the pendulum is swinging a bit, I think.

[TheDebbieDee]

3. I hope you're right. I want you to be right \8 ^ )

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Not true. Rove thinks 4 million Christians stayed home.

mainly due to the DWI story the final weekend of the campaign.
But regardless, THEIR base isn't one tenth as motivated as OUR base.
We will get to the polls, and many new voters will join us.

[LuminousX]

7. DWI story didn't even phase me

I highly doubt it phased even the biggest ultra-Christians and if they didn't like his DWI then, they still won't like it now.

This was the little lie they told themselves to cover the fact that more people in this country said they didn't want Bush than people who said they did.

[mimitabby]

8. i disagree

the born again folks believed that smirky was born again too.
so he could have been a murderer before, but now he was spanky
clean and pure...
(that's before we heard he was snorting cocaine AFTER he was born again)bwahahahaha

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. I agree. AWOL means shit to them

but more to swing voters. And Rove must be kidding himself, because they hated Clinton SO much I doubt many of them stayed home.

[northzax]

11. ok, sure, but they were still registered voters

and would be counted now among 'likely voters' not new ones.

[maine_raptor]

12. "Staying Home" does not mean they are unregistered n/t

[Lex]

5. People are motivated when they want a CHANGE

not when they want things to stay the same.

That's why most newly registered voters will vote for the CHALLENGER, not the incumbent.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Hence Cheney's threat intended to get people against Kerry out of fear

They NEED a motivator. They SUCK!!!

[Thrill]

9. Likely voters is a stupid concept

Its basically saying Minorities and Young people are saying they want Kerry over Bush. But they aren't likely to vote.

In so many words thats who they aren't including in the so called "likely voter" crap. Boy will they be suprised on Election day

[roseBudd]

13. Hamilton County in SW Ohio has 38,000 new voter registrations

and Cincinnati is 43% black

Surrounding predominantly white (98%) counties have 10,000

I canvass black people everyday and they are mad and motivated

[roseBudd]

14. Plus pollsters are not calling cell phones