What's with these Mason-Dixon polls? Why do they all have Obama under 50%?

[jenmito]

I don't have a link. I've just been seeing them being pimped on MSNBC all day. Aren't there other state polls that have Obama OVER 50% in the battleground states?

[Chichiri]

1. Mason-Dixon has a Republican lean of at least 2-3 points.

Here are the REAL numbers, per fivethirtyeight.com:




MSNBC just wants ratings.

[jenmito]

6. Thanks for the chart...

that makes me feel better. :hi:

[Grateful for Hope]

15. I think that MSNBC, like all the other networks

wants a tighter race than is the reality because they want viewership UP on election night. I have also seen that they pandor to the right during the day, and then, switch over to the left during prime time.

So, your ratings hypothesis is definitely a good part of it.

I happen to think that the media is no longer as able to shape public opinion as it did in the past due to the internet. I think this trend will continue, and it will, in fact, expand to the point that we may again see the journalism that we are all entitled to.

[bluemarkers]

2. mason dixon

are paid for in part by WRAL. The Raleigh TV station that gave us Jesse Helms. :)

In local coverage of SP's visit yesterday, WRAL said 10,000 were in the Exposition Bldg at the State Fairgrounds. N&O Raleigh NC paper said 5,000. Looking at the State Fairground website, it would be impossible to fit 10,000 inside that building. geez

[jenmito]

8. Oh, so they're a Repub. polling company.

Thanks for the info.! :hi:

[bluemarkers]

9. I don't know that.

But with Jesse's on air commentary, they have a long history of bias and prejudice. imo Lucky me! My local station.

Mason Dixon always leans for the gop.

[jenmito]

11. I'm just inferring that from what you said...

They definitely don't sound Dem.-friendly. :)

[bluemarkers]

17. you know how they hide connections

:) they probably are looking to get an answer that will keep the reds happy.

maybe happy isn't the right word this year though! :lol:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Too much Dixon and not enough Mason?

[featherman]

4. The polling analysis term is "house effect" and has to do with a particular polling firm's

subjective assessment of who is likely to vote in a particular year. More on this particular set of polls at:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Should not be surprising that networks who strongly prefer a close horse race going in should promote selective polls that show the trailing candidate "closing". Very understandable from their point of view.

[jenmito]

10. Thanks for the link...

I just looked at it. Made me feel better. :hi:

[bookman]

5. I agree it they're pushing the "upset"

I might need to get "talked down" myself. :)

Sorry, DU'ers, it is just I hate to give them any hope.

[jenmito]

12. Yeah, they are. Their banner reads, "Obama & McCain Neck-and-neck in 8 States."

:eyes:

[sickinohio]

7. That's the ONLY poll M$NBC has

been showing ALL day. Guess they need news, and they need to make it look like McLame might win, so they will have something to talk about for two days.

[jenmito]

13. I know. And have you noticed that after showing all of McCain's rallies they

comment on how "fired up" and "energetic" he sounds/looks? :eyes:

[Dems4me]

20. I'm sick of seeing McCain on everything-He didn't need to buy air time -It's given to him free nt.

[scheming daemons]

14. They're all dated 10/28-29.... in other words... pre-informercial

[jenmito]

16. They say Oct. 29th-30th, so one day was pre-infomercial.

[theothersnippywshrub]

18. Obama actually gained in 5 of these 8 most recent Mason-Dixon polls when compared

to the prior Mason-Dixon polls in the same states. From fivethirtyeight:

. . . .

But! -- you might protest -- maybe these numbers are more favorable to McCain because your averages are out of date, and this election is trending toward McCain!

Well, not really. Because if you compare these polls against the last time Mason-Dixon was in the field in these states, Obama hasn't really lost any ground. (Actually, he's gained a bit, but not any statistically significant amount).



...to make this clear for the nth time, the presence of a house effect does not mean that a pollster is partisan or "biased". Mason-Dixon is a non-partisan pollster. Nor does it mean that a pollster is wrong! Mason-Dixon has a pretty good track record. Their vision of the electorate -- which seems to point toward a narrow Obama electoral victory -- could very easily turn out to be the right one. But it does mean that you need to take these sorts of things into account to make sure that you're making apples-to-apples comparisons.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Granted, some of the prior polls are relatively old, but the best determination of any change Mason-Dixon is measuring is to compare the most recent MD polls to the last MD polls in the same states.

[jenmito]

19. Thanks. Yeah, I just started a thread about that. Chuck Todd just exlained it, too.

:hi: