The 1948 Truman election surprise could have been avoided ...

[palintology]

... Polling stopped more than a week before election day.






This year, I don't expect surprises ...

1.) There are polls coming in two days before election day.
2.) It's not a three way race like in 1948 and 1992.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. and they polled using telephones. It was mostly the wealthier people who had

phones back then...

[wyldwolf]

2. If Republicans had turned out, there would have been a Dewey administration

[Zynx]

3. Post-election surveys indicated this wasn't the case. In fact, had depressed Dems turned out

the margins for Truman would have been larger.

[wyldwolf]

4. I've not seen that post election analysis and would welcome a link to read it

All accounts I've read have stated that Dewey was so far ahead in the polls going into the last week that Republicans stayed home. In fact, turnout was about 10 million voters lower than the previous election

[Zynx]

5. I read it in David McCullough's book "Truman". I don't have an internet link.

I looked into it at the time though. Democrats were very demoralized and Republicans were excited because they hadn't been in power in 16 years.

[book_worm]

6. Yes I read it in "Truman" as well.

[Zynx]

7. Then you know what I'm talking about. The survey claimed Truman could have won

by as big as FDR in 1944 with a more energetic Democratic base.

[msallied]

9. Wasn't the Dem base diluted by the Dixiecrats, though?

I need to get that Truman book. I studied that election many years ago, but I'm sure I'm missing a greater detail.

[wyldwolf]

8. several other works appear to contradict that

The Pre-Election Polls of 1948. by Frederick Mosteller, for example.

And from Rutger University's Eagleton Institute of Politics:

Ironically, the polls themselves may have helped Truman's late surge to overcome Dewey when press reports of their surveys showing Dewey ahead energized the Democrats to mount late efforts to increase turnout, and made the Republicans over-confident of any need to get their own voters to the polls.

http://www.eagleton.rutgers.edu/e-gov/e-politicalarchive-1948election.htm

[Zynx]

10. We'll agree to disagree on this one.

I cannot conclude convincing evidence one way or the other on this matter. The conventional wisdom for a long time was that Dewey's supporters were overconfident. I still don't believe overconfidence keeps people away from the polls.

[wyldwolf]

11. you and I aren't disagreeing, my friend

our sources are