A quick analysis of NC early voting...

[JBear]

Hey everyone, I did a little demographic analysis of the early voting in NC today....

Assuming early voting demographics will break the same way as the 2004 demographic (84% dems vote dem and 96% reps vote rep and 56% of indies vote rep), the results thus far are quite interesting....

Total votes at early polling stations and absentees: 2,573,899
This is about 72% of the total number of votes in 2004 - not the early votes, the TOTAL votes in 2004!

If the demographics are the same as 04, we have the following:

1,338,633 Dem 52%
1,221,058 Rep 48%

My caveats on this...
Dem turn out is high - Will this hold through Tuesday?? Maybe. The base is so much stronger this time than 2004.

I don't think the indies are going to turn out for McCain - there are just too many people I hear saying they will vote for Obama, and I am talking people who voted Bush twice!

I don't think the Dem vote for Dem percentage will be this low. I think it will be closer to 90% while the Rep for Rep percentage may edge down to 90%.

Then again, the polls are saying it is a 4 point race.....

Is it Tuesday yet???

:bounce:

[patricia92243]

1. CNN just said McCain was three points ahead of Obama with likely voters - sigh :(

[nc4bo]

2. "likely voters". I'm taking encouragment that everything so far about this election has been so

sooooooooooooooooo "unlikely".

Gonna work my ass off to GOTV to put these racist, repugnant, vote-against-your-own-self-interest morans right outta of contention.