Someone, please, give me a legitmate reason why

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Obama has sunk in the polls. Please, please tell me that the fix isn't in.

I have meticulously watched every poll, every day, for months and months and months.

Not a single thing has happened to make them shift so dramatically to McOld.

If they "take" OH and he loses PA. He can't make it up. They won't ever let us
have VA and that leaves NM, NV, NH, and CO - 23 EVs.

I feel like that screaming woman on Airplane that needs to be slapped to her senses.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. What the hell are you talking about?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. I thought I made is extremely clear what I meant

[scheming daemons]

8. HE HASN'T SLIPPED.... Geezus.....

He's gained in most of the above.


He even gained in the famous Mason-Dixon polls that everyone cited today.



What the hell have you been reading?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. State polls

[Ichingcarpenter]

23. You keep looking at the Mason Dixie Poll don't you?

Give me one other poll that backs up their shit!

[grantcart]

29. lordy GA NC AZ MT ND

there is always a closing as undecideds make up their mind


McCain has lost more in those 5 states than Obama has in any of the other states.


McCain has to win them all

[RichardRay]

32. Weekend polls, semi-holiday, poor contact percentage, poor

methodology in combining multiday results into averaged results. If the election weren't Tuesday (and thank god it is) you'd see all that noise shake out by Wednesday.

As it is, it really doesn't matter, but it can be a bit nerve wracking if you don't watch what's going on.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[annabanana]

2. Would you like us to line up and slap you to your senses?

I think you've got 2004 syndrome.

I suffer from that malady too. The only REAL cure is January 20th 2009.

[LibraLiz1973]

4. ha ha ha, like in the movie Airplane!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. He hasn't sunk. A segment of undecideds decided McCain in a few polls.

Most polls are showing stability or positive Obama momentum.

In those polls showing tightening Obama tends to hold the same level, but McCain goes up a little from undecideds deciding.

A few polls have had apples-to-apples moves like 52-42 to Obama 52-46. Nobody is defecting from Obama.

Really not anything to worry about.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. that's not true at all. He was over 50% in NV and VA now below

And O has lost 3 full points in PA in just 6 days. If you are saying that
is all attributed to undecideds going to McPain - don't believe it. He has lost
4.5 points in VA in less than a week.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. Are those apples-to-apples?

I am not saying they are or are not. (Gains or losses in the same poling set. I mention it because the last round of Mason-Dixon polls had lower-seeming numbers but Obama was actually advancing over thir previous polls.)

I agree that some state polls have tightened, but I never took last weeks numbers all that seriously in the first place. Obama was never going to win Pennsylvania by 12%, or probably even 7%. But he's certainly polling a lot stronger than Kerry was before winning PA.

Since Obama hasn't even been in PA and Palin is living there and McCain is spending all his money on PA TV I don't see reversion to mid single-digits in that state a terrible thing.

[Ichingcarpenter]

You keep looking at the Mason Dixie Poll don't you?

Give me two other polls that back those up

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. NO

I have been tracking the RCP averages since 10-27

VA
7.3, 7.4, 7.6, 6.5, 3.8 !!!!

[scheming daemons]

50. The 3.8 today is SPECIFICALLY because of the M-D poll..take it out and the average has stayed steady

[quakerboy]

59. Thank you

One set of polling comes out that for the first time in a month dosn't increase Obamas numbers, and we have despair?

Anyway.. I'm thinking now is not the greatest time for a freakout. With 2 days to go, you are either going to vote or not. And you are either going to work for Obama's GOTV(Do it, people, this is the time) or not. Theres not much else to do at this point.

[Ichingcarpenter]

52. Get a load of these apples

VA-Pres
Nov 2 PPP (D)Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 46%

VA-Pres
Nov 2 SurveyUSAObama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 46%

VA-Pres
Nov 1 Mason-DixonObama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 44%

VA-Pres
Oct 30 Natl. JournalObama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 44%

VA-Pres
Oct 30 MaristObama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

VA-Pres
Oct 29 CNNObama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 44%

VA-Pres
Oct 29 AP/GfKObama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 42%

VA-Pres
Oct 27 RasmussenObama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

VA-Pres
Oct 27 VA Commonwealth Univ.Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 40%

VA-Pres
Oct 27 SurveyUSAObama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 43%

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/vapres/

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

54. Right you are

VA and PA are tighter than they were on RCP. I don't see those effects in the RCP charts for other swing states like OH, FL, MO, CO, etc.

All McCain resources have been concentrated in VA and PA, so I guess some movement makes sense.

But, taking PA, the changes of Obama's total in the last 5 polls on RCP that have previous PA polls are +1, +1, -2, 0, -1. It looks to be mostly undecideds settling... more McCain going up than Obama going down.

[GOPNotForMe]

5. Depends on the poll, the methodology, margins of error, days polled, etc.

There has been some tightening but that isn't because Obama is losing support; it's because the disgruntled Republicans are coming home to McCain, as was always expected. I don't think anyone really expected McCain to get 42 percent of the vote (at least I didn't, although I sure hoped!). There will be problems if Obama's support starts dropping but that simply isn't happening.

[Bicoastal]

7. WTF are you talking about?

We're going to win Virginia and Pennsylvania. We're going to win New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa. We're probably going to win Ohio. We may get Florida. North Carolina will be close. Indiana and Missouri will be a squeaker. North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona aren't entirely out of the question.

We're going to win.

[codjh9]

9. He hasn't sunk - every poll I've looked at shows a WIDENING lead.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. state polls - all that really counts.

[Ichingcarpenter]

27. you keep looking at the Mason Dixie Poll don't you?

Name one more poll that backs them up

[Dr. Death]

10. Snap out of it

Forget the polls. C'mon, it's like Obama said, they will not give up power easily. We all KNEW they would bleat "the polls are tightening!" right before the end. They're just trying to help out the trainwreck that is the McCain-Palin campaign.

But don't believe it. We're going to win. "They" won't let us take Virginia? I've got news for them - WE are the they. This time, the people will not be denied.

I'll let you in on another little secret - we're going to win NC too. I know. I've been out on the ground this weekend and seen the tide that is flowing here, and it's a tide that's about to help sweep away republican filth.

Stand firm. Yes, they will claw and scream absolutely everything they can in the next 24 hours. But it won't matter. Stand firm, vote, get your friends out to vote, and we win.

[Curtland1015]

12. The fix IS in. We're all doomed!

Ever single polling organization on the planet is in the Republican's pocket. As is every election offical in the country and even most of the voters have been paid off. We have no chance of winning.

There, feel better now?

:P

[TexasObserver]

13. "Jim never throws up at home."

[progressivebydesign]

14. Umm.. cuz he's NOT sinking in the polls? Has that time change thing screwed with your head?

Maybe you should get some sleep and take a look at those numbers again.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

15. He Will Win Tuesday. That's A 100% Guarantee. Breathe.

[chalky]

18. Hope this helps....

smack!

[Sodan]

22. lmao

[NYC_SKP]

24. Surely you can't be serious.

.....

[Danger Mouse]

26. ...and don't call me Shirley.

:hi:

[NYC_SKP]

39. Tah Dah!

:hi:

[Danger Mouse]

25. Shit! It's all over, man! Game over!

[BlooInBloo]

28. (facepalm)

[stillcool]

30. I have to say...you had a post one day..

about a Gallup Poll that I had to show my husband. He said the same exact thing as you did, at almost the same time. So know that you are not alone. That day, there was an inexplicable anomaly and he and I'm sure you breathed easier the following day when things bumped back up. I don't have an answer for you now,..I could ask my husband, but I don't want to get him all worked up. But have you tried FiveThirtyEight? http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

[OmahaBlueDog]

31. LPYB, if you think the fix is in, get out the Visa and go on over to Intrade

However, most of the buyers seem to think this is going a different direction than a McSame upset.

[quakerboy]

60. speaking of which

does anyone have a totaly irrational temptation to bid on some McCain stock? I mean, if he steals it, gonna need the cash somethin fierce. I guess its like short selling, and look how well that turned out for the F'rs what dun it?

[crossroads]

33. WTF? Look at these numbers!

RV: Obama 53(+1), McCain 40(-1)
LVI: Obama 53(+1), McCain 42(-1)
LVII: Obama 53(+2), McCain 42(-1)

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. states. all that matters.

[scheming daemons]

40. He's at 52 or 53 in PA... 52 in VA.... 50+ in OH..... WTF are you talking about?

As another poster keeps saying...

"You keep looking at the Mason-Dixon polls, don't you?"

[Laura PourMeADrink]

43. Sorry. RCP - VA 49.8, PA 51.3, OH 48.3 wtf are YOU talking about.

[scheming daemons]

48. I think you'd better look again

In Virginia, every non-Mason-Dixon poll has Obama over 50% ..... averaging 51%

In PA, every non-Mason-Dixon poll has Obama over 50% ..... averaging 52%

In Ohio, every non-Mason-Dixon poll has Obama over 49% ..... averaging 50%



You need to realize that Obama moved *UP* in all of the Mason-Dixon polls since their last polling.... and Mason-Dixon has had a +3 or +4 Republican advantage throughout their history.



You're not watching the polls closely enough.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

51. I think you had better look again -- RCP realclearpolitics.com

[scheming daemons]

53. That's where I got my numbers.... he's 50+ in all the battlegrounds when you disregard M-D

McCain's number doesn't matter.

If Obama's number is 50+, then McCain can't win the state.

[regnaD kciN]

62. I'll see your RCP and raise you a Pollster.com...

VA O 50.6 M 44.3 (+6.3)
PA O 51.8 M 44.5 (+7.3)
OH O 49.9 M 44.3 (+5.6)

BTW, RCP is known to have a Republican bias, and (as Nate Silver observed) cherry-picks the polls they include in their average in a suspicious way. For example, they started including a tracker (don't remember which one) which appeared to have a significant tilt in favor of McCain while refusing to include dKos/R2K, which at the time appeared to have a far-smaller tilt in favor of Obama.

[Bicoastal]

34. Looks like you picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

[crossroads]

35. LOL

[BamaTideFan83]

36. Freeper troll?

It will be a LANDSLIDE! Believe it.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. How dare you.

[Danger Mouse]

45. I'm sorry, but that cracked me up.

:rofl:

[kid a]

56. I just logged in ten minutes ago for the first time in 3 days (knocked on 200 doors - 72hrs)

Me, to myself, ten minutes ago:
"I bet if I go to DU, LPYB will have a frantic worry thread about state polls" (same as you did four days ago, on my last visit here)

Me, to myself, just now:
"Yep!"

Go to Barackobama.com and use their battlegound calling tool - it relieves stress, helps you avoid polls, and can even help Obama get elected, who woulda known?

SHEESH!!!

[BamaTideFan83]

58. Joking!

Ha. Ha. You have more than 1000 posts!

[Name removed]

42. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Every Man A King]

44. Woahhhh calm down... Mason-Dixon polls

always sway toward repuke.

[seabeyond]

46. electoral map (link in post) still looks good. polls i have seen are excellent

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

all seems fine to me

doing the happy dance

[Every Man A King]

47. PPP is releasing polls all thru the night

+8 in PA and +6 in VA and more to come
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
FYI Kerry only won PA by 2 points. Im not sure what kind of margins you are expecting in these battlegrounds.

[Danger Mouse]

49. Do you like movies about gladiators?

[writes3000]

55. Here's A Clue: These Pollsters change the weighting on their polls - which change the results.

When the polls have the same weighting and then there's a trend, you can worry.

Right now, these companies are trying to save their rep and the safest thing they can do is be CONSERVATIVE.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

57. Deleted message.

:*

[Presidentcokedupfratboy]

61. Yes, it is promising

But you are right to not let the polls prevent you from a healthy skepticism.

We should win but make some calls, etc. for good measure.