Does Bush really have a 7 point lead?

[demosincebirth]

I don't think so. Please read:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[jeff30997]

1. He sure have a 7 points IQ .

:)

[DaveinMD]

2. I think

the race is probably even right now. Regardless, remember that its a marathon and not a sprint as Bill Parcells used to say about football.

[0rganism]

11. OT: We don't do ourselves any favors by underestimating bush's cleverness

Stop pretending he's a retard. Start treating him as the cunning, deadly, vicious ratfucker he is.

Remember:
* He beat Ann Richards.
* He beat Al Gore.

If we don't watch out, he'll beat John Kerry, too.

[jfalchion]

12. "Start treating him as the cunning, deadly, vicious ratfucker he is."

You're correct. Harvard does not give away MBA's.

We treated Ronnie as a dolt. He beat us twice.

I need some alcohol and chocolate.


:kick:

[jfalchion]

13. addendum

I just did the math. Ronnie received a total of 1014 electoral votes in two elections. Yikes!

[Mr_Spock]

3. Wow, very interesting reading

We'll see how things shake out in the end - looks close and like NOTHING has changed - despite what some INTERPRETERS of the data might suggest.

[camby]

4. Zogby today said "no way".

He poked holes in two of the polls that showed Bush with a big lead.

[Nicholas_J]

6. Yes

Zogby broke doen the polls and showed where the data was skewed to look like BUsh had a very large lead.

[WilliamPitt]

5. No

[NWHarkness]

7. If you aren't reading Ruy Teixeira regularly

You ought to be!

[ugarte]

8. Even if it is 7 (which I doubt), a couple of things

It includes Texas and the usual Republican South, where his lead is probably more than seven. Take away that aberration and the rest of the country is extremely tight.

Keep in mind also that in a 2-man race a 7 pt. lead is really just a 4-point swing. In other words, if Bush drops four points and Kerry rises four, Kerry's in the lead.

[DaveinMD]

9. you can't do that

because then you have to take out New York and New England as well as Illinois.

[ugarte]

10. I'm not the first one to say this

I've seen it in a couple of places. Supposedly, the polling sampling is spread geographically so that more Repub voters in diverse red ststes will be polled than x number of Demo voters in any one state, like NY, where admittedly Dems hold the edge.

But I see your point.

[troublemaker]

14. I agree. Blue states have been more one-sided all year

I think the R convention simply boosted the red states to the same level of intensity/polarization as the blue states have had since the primaries. (Thus the bounce, if any, has a bigger effect on national totals than in battleground states.)

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Neither side has had, or will have, a legit 7+ point lead

I'm talking the voting places actually open, not a damn poll. Each side in this polarized era has about a 44-45% energized base so how in hell can you assign a 7 point margin without a laughtrack in the background?