CBS reporting on poll neglected to mention ...

[shockingelk]

That Jr's convention "bounce" is meaningless in practical terms - the GOP convention didn't change America's mind, it just made more people say they'd vote for Bush

From the full results in the PDF, this poll, September 6-8 (PDF),

q7 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

Mind made up 78%
Too early to say for sure: 14%
DK/NA 0%
Didn’t choose a candidate 8%

Same question from CBS August 15-18 poll (PDF),

Mind made up 77%
Too early to say for sure 14%
DK/NA 1%
Didn’t choose a candidate 8%

[Frodo]

1. ?? What's your point?

"didn't change America's mind, it just made more people say they'd vote for Bush"

I'm having trouble processing that statement.

[Brotherjohn]

2. I think he/she's assuming the "mind made up" people are the same 77-78%.

The undecideds are still undecided (people who haven't made their mind up), so the poll doesn't really mean much.

I think that's what the poster is saying.

[Frodo]

4. Ok, how does this help us?

By that theory, the people (several percent) who changed their vote from Kerry to Bush were lying when they said they had already made up their mind?

Or maybe it's just those who are not definite who have moved from leaning Kerry to leaning Bush?

Either way I don't see how this maked me feel better.


I'd rather se some internals that show they overweighted Republicans. Because CBS is NOT carrying water for them.

[Brotherjohn]

6. Agree with your last statement. I hope it was weighted to repubs.

I don't think anything here 'helps" us otherwise.

I think the point that the undecideds will decide the election is made clear, though. But then we already knew that, especially since the Dem/Repub vote is split so evenly, and so definitively, this time.

[lunarboy13]

3. Just look at the numbers...

Think about it...Bush got a "bounce" according to CBS polls, but the number of those who said their mind was made up changed by only one percent. This means that most of Bush's bounce is made up of people who are still not sure about Bush (those in the 14% -- too early to tell category).

Which means they are just as likely so slide out of Bush's column and back into the "undecided" bracket as they are to stay with Bush.

[shockingelk]

7. And also ...

Some people's votes may have been cemented by the convention, and others who were before certain of their candidate are now unsure.

In fact, among the people saying they'll vote for Bush, 1% less say they're sure, and those saying they'll vote for Kerry, one percent more say they're sure.

Although movement of 1% is statistically insignificant, CBS could have reported that among the group surveyed, the GOP convention solidified support for Kerry more than Bush.

[Frodo]

8. Re-evaluate those numbers.

They aren't the good news you think they are.

Since there are now MORE Bush supporters, if most of the new ones were recently undecided and still a bit on the fence there would be a much bigger than 1% jump in that sub-measure.

And of course Kerry's support is more solidified, several percent of his previous supporters (who were obviously NOT certain) have left.

If you take away all but Kerry's core supporters, then you HAVE "solidified support for Kerry", but not in a good way.

In short - there is no good news to this analysis of CBS's poll.

[Misunderestimator]

9. "Since there are now MORE Bush supporters" ?

You make that statement based on one poll? I highly doubt that Kerry supporters who were decided before the RNC convention would have changed their minds.

[Frodo]

10. no no no. In the POLL.

Obviously the poll claims a higher number. So a higher percentage of less "solid" support is expected.

[shockingelk]

11. You're thinking about different numbers than I'm speaking of

Not everyone is like you and I and follows politics closely. They're more interested in the sports page than the front page.

But they can still give an answer to the question "who would you vote for today?" That doesn't mean they "support" the candidate they say they'd vote for if the election were today.

Obviously, more people answer "Bush" now than they did during and shortly after the DNC convention. But just as many people report that they are still unsure if they are giving the same answer they'll give on September 2.

It seems like you're falling into the trap of thinking everybody is like you in that they have a strong desire for a particular candidate to win the election.

Look at the changes in answers to polls around the two conventions - the changes don't reflect that people are really changing their minds, just that at the moment in time the pollster calls them, one of the candidates seems like the better guy to vote for:

[Renew Deal]

5. It means that more pukes will come out

instead of staying home.