Missouri: Bush 55, Kerry 41 (Gallup) - WTF?

[liberalpragmatist]

I'm assuming this is just an outlier - what do the rest of you all think?

UPDATE: Sorry, accidently said Bush 55, Kerry 51 - hence all the remarks and laughter about a 106% sample.

UPDATE II: Also thought I'd add that what worries me more is that this poll may be at least partly correct. While a poll from yesterday had Bush and Kerry tied, I read elsewhere that Kerry was planning to cut back advertising in Missouri - is Missouri no longer considered winnable?

[eyesroll]

1. Well, since 106% of people surveyed have an opinion,

I'd say something's wrong.

:D

[polmaven]

2. It's Gallup.....

....'Nuff said.

[papau]

12. Electorial Map still looks good - and Missouri may be an example of

http://www.mydd.com/files/admin/Electoral_Map.bmp

5 out of 100 polls that have errors greater than the MOE - or we may have found a state that will cut its economic throat so as to prove its love of Bush social values.

Ohio is obviously wrong as there is again a huge discrepancy between their results for registered voters (Bush 48, Kerry 47) and their results for likely voters (Bush 52, Kerry 44) - obtainable only by projecting that 90 percent of Bush supporters will vote but only 78 percent of Kerry supporters will vote.

But Washington state conducted September 3-7, 2004 has Kerry at 51 percent, Bush at 43 percent

Gallup compares well to other Pennsylvania RV's polling Sept. 4-7, that shows a tie, with 47 percent each for John Kerry and George Bush, since he obtained Bush at 48 percent, Kerry at 47 percent.








A DUer has a website that did an interesting comparison of the pollesters -WHICH POLLSTERS LIKE BUSH THE BEST? -pollster average difference from Ipsos-Reid spread (since 9/11/01) t-ratio (t > 2.0 or t < -2.0 means "significantly different from Ipsos")

FOX 1.958 1.190
NBCWSJ 1.535 1.115
IPSOS-REID 0.000 na
PEW (0.366) (0.278)
GALLUP (0.830) (0.564)
ABCPOST (0.971) (0.553)
HARRIS (1.788) (0.865)
CNNTIME (1.874) (0.809)
NEWSWEEK (2.176) (1.257)
CBS (2.621) (1.375)
TIPP (3.393) (1.245)
NYT (5.030) (2.556)
IBD (5.289) (2.045)
ARG (6.922) (4.416)
ZOGBY (9.907) (5.001)

[Walt Starr]

3. Well, since 106% doesn't quite add up

I'd discount the poll entirely.

Is Missouri a Diebold state????

[formernaderite]

15. News announcer said Dems pulling ad money from a few states....

...including Missouri...Is this why perhaps?

[pstokely]

16. not all of it

nt

[Texas_Dem]

4. ummmmm...

too funny!

[shaolinmonkey]

5. Definitely an outlier. They can't add. 55 + 51 = 106.

I usually look for my polls to ad up to 100%. :)

[Meshuga]

6. 55 + 51 = 106

That poll is definitely not right. :-)

[0rganism]

7. Yeah, I'd say that's an outlier by at least 6%

Something's definitely odd about those numbers.... :evilgrin:

[Career Prole]

8. With 106% of the vote in we can call the election at this time...

BBV must go! :D

[funkybutt]

9. Yeah I noticed that today on electoral-vote.com

I don't get it...that state turned BRIGHT RED in one day. Click on "previous" and watch it change...something is fishy about that poll..i don't buy it

[lancdem]

10. It's the RNC bounce

It'll fade.

[Guaranteed]

11. No, folks, it really says 55-41.

I just checked www.gallup.com

[geek tragedy]

13. The midwest has as many NASCAR dad morans as the deep south

Missouri and Ohio, outside of the big cities, are much like Kentucky or Arkansas.

[liberalpragmatist]

14. Yeah, but a poll yesterday had them tied

That's why I'm guessing this is an outlier.

However, I read elsewhere the Kerry's cutting back advertising in Missouri.

[Mr Blond]

17. I don't like this...

...From memory, Missouri has voted with the winning candidate since FDR. (Or before?)

If nothing else, that fact being spewed by the media may supress voter turnout.

Let's keep Missouri in the "Battleground" catagory!! Get out there and work Show Me Democrats!!! :)

[seabeyond]

18. colorado went off the map too.

i wanted colorado to switch. i thought it an ideal state to go kerry