Put the "Bradley Effect" to bed. Obama outperforms pre-election polls in swing states.

[jefferson_dem]

The actual results from last night -- at least on the presidential level -- provide compelling empirical evidence negating all three of those theories. In the top 10 swing states, compare the predicted result from the final RealClearPolitics average to the actual results in those states:

Swing state RCP Final avg. Actual result Actual result v. poll
Ohio Obama: 2.5% Obama: 4.1% Obama: +2.6%
Florida Obama: 1.8% Obama: 2.5% Obama: +0.7%
Pennsylvania Obama: 7.3% Obama: 10.3% Obama: +3.0%
Virginia Obama: 4.4% Obama: 4.5% Obama: +0.1%
Indiana McCain: 1.4% Obama: 0.8% Obama: 2.2%
North Carolina McCain: 0.4% Obama: 0.3% Obama: +0.7%
Missouri McCain: 0.7% McCain: 0.2% Obama: +0.5%
Colorado Obama: 5.5% Obama: 6.7% Obama: +1.2%
Nevada Obama: 6.5% Obama: 12.5% Obama: +7.0%
New Mexico Obama: 7.3% Obama: 14.9% Obama: +7.6%

With two exceptions (Nevada and New Mexico), the polls were extremely accurate in predicting the ultimate results. And in all 10 swing states, Obama outperformed what the final polls predicted, meaning that there ended up being a better result in counted votes for Obama than the polls anticipated.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/11/05/polls/index.html

[Orrex]

1. Let's call it The Obama Effect

:woohoo:

[Bonn1997]

2. I was thinking about that too

They won't be able to pull off Bradley Effect BS in 2012 now. (I know I'm getting ahead of myself. It's what I do by nature.)

[Canuckistanian]

3. K&R

There's another one down.

[enid602]

4. Bradley

Now maybe Bradley will be known for his biggest accomplishment, pioneering Metro, Metro Rail and Metro Link.

[ROh70]

5. It's the groundgame, stupid. Dumb pollsters and punidiots failed to take that in acount.

[Piscatarian]

6. Also there was much less voter suppression this time. nt