Polling Hysteria-obvious flaws

[EST]

May I point out a flaw that nobody seems to talk about? Most, if not all, serious polls are conducted on landline telephone.
I live in a very rural area where cell phones won't work-it just doesn't pay the cell providers to put towers in this sort of area as those installations cost about a million dollars each. In and near cities, these days, many, many people don't even have landline phones and the survey people don't use cellphone lists. What this tells me is that the polls must largely be calling rural or at least lightly populated areas and ignoring cities, where all the people are! Doesn't this argue for the notion that the polls have to be skewed toward conservative, small town opinions because they aren't even sampling the places where folks tend to be far more liberal and progressive?

If this is the case, it makes sense that Kerry could almost stop campaigning right now and still walk home in a landslide.




metaphor mixer still working overtime

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Yep

You got it. I live in the Ozarks, and even here about half of the clients of my business have cell phones. And this is a region that sounds a lot like yours, with many spots without service due to cost of erecting the towers.

[DarthDem]

2. Right

I have a landline - - two, actually - - but I never answer either one. Cell phone all the way. Most people in cities are like that these days, or they don't have a phone at all.

[cheshire]

3. I live in a mid size town in Ca and have no landline phone so maybe lots.

of us.

[EST]

6. Wonder what the results would be if the polling people

start using a system that actually reflects a picture of America? I can't help but think it certainly wouldn't look like it does, now.

[blondeatlast]

9. As a rule, polls simply ignore:

*new voters of ALL ages (many of whom wouldn't bother to register unless they were severely po'ed about the current administration)

*US citizens living abroad

*those as described above, who are often poorer

*those who travel for a living

*military families

*ad nauseaum

Guess who the GOTV drives are going after this election?

Yep--ALL OF THE ABOVE.

I get a warm feeling just thinking about it!

[calico1]

4. I have mentioned that same thing in

several threads. And you're right. A lot of people use cell phones exclusively now. Even from 4 years back there is a much larger number of these people. They are not polled. That, along with the high voter registration of new voters isn't counted when polling is done.

[EST]

8. Yeah, I've seen it mentioned before,

but, it seems, no one pays any attention. Thought starting a thread with it might make a little more swirl, especially when chicken little starts getting nervous.

[Shopaholic]

5. If the polls still look like this a month from now, I'll be worried

but for right now, I'm going to ignore them. Another thing--a lot of folks are suspicious of polls and won't take them. Also, for those with Caller ID, lots of screening goes on (I know--I won't answer if I don't recognize a number).

[CrispyQ]

7. The polls mean nothing, however, we should all be worried.

They will manipulate the polls in their attempt to steal the election. "The polls said Dim son was ahead, so yes, he really did win. No need to worry about that Diebold machine you just voted on." Very devious.