ABC News/Washington Post survey, Bush has 52 to Kerry 43

[59millionmorons]

Moving these underlying views has enabled Bush to break out of the virtual dead heat that's defined the contest: Among likely voters in this ABC News/Washington Post survey, Bush has 52 percent support, Kerry 43 percent, Ralph Nader 2 percent. It's Bush's first lead beyond the margin of sampling error in any ABC/Post poll since Kerry seized his party's nomination in March. The race is 50-44-2 percent among all registered voters.

The contest is far from over: This poll follows Bush's convention, a week in which he held center stage in public attention, and his convention "bounce" — an insignificant +5 points among registered voters — is an anemic one, on par with Kerry's +8 and below the average, +14, in polls since 1968. One difference is that Kerry left his convention in a dead heat among likely voters, while Bush leaves his with a lead.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_campaign_poll_040909.html

And how well did ABC do in 2000? Not so good.

ABC News Tracking (Nov. 3-5)
Margin of error +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I don't trust polls

who did they poll? What questions did they ask? When did they poll? We've seen skewed polls before.

[Cha]

2. Good ! Make Dems work harder which we

Must Do!

[comradebillyboy]

3. maybe kerry could campaign a bit more

he has been keeping an awfully low profile for a presidential candidate. by comparison that lazy turd bush looks aggressive and active.

i dont think the voters want a real passive guy as president

[bigtree]

7. that lazy turd

looks like a lazy turd.

[seabeyond]

10. you think it has to do with showing one (pres)

on the news and not showing the other.

actually kerry has been getting good press today. i am thinking enough dems have bitched. anyway. they had kerry speech a woman talking about the hamster story. kerry's hamster survived, and per the twins their hamster did not

kerry laughed and said is this metaphor? or prophecy

anyway have been playing that, was cute

[CityDem]

4. Polls are getting me down

I am sick of these polls that show Kerry trailing by 6-10 points. It is hard to stay motivated, but I will push on in hopes of defeating *.

[bigtree]

8. Fox poll shows 2%. Rassamataz poll shows a race within the MOE

9 points seems to be an anomoly.

Try to keep your spirits up, though.

[oasis]

9. These corporate controlled polls are meant to discourage Kerry support

and dry up donations. Don't fall for it and keep right on working. Look around you, there you will find the truth.

Keep the faith. :thumbsup:

[seabeyond]

12. i live in amarillo, tx. i am only around fundamentalist christians

even the few catholics are going for bush. lol lol. looking around me isnt a good thing, bah ha haha. i suck up what is going on in hte outside world

[PCIntern]

5. It's all just lies lies and more lies...

look - the media gleefully reported that Kerry had no bounce at all whatsoever. then, they deliberately underestimated the bounce that * should have when the convention was over - then pumped it up beyond all recognition after the convention and then retraced it back when called on their 'miscalculation' when their collective feet were held to the fire.

That's called Bullshit where I come from and as the Rethugs like to say, 'the fact of the matter' is that Kerry has everything going for him.

[GreenArrow]

6. Bullshit

Bush didn't get 50 percent in 2000, and he's done NOTHING to increase his numbers.

No one who voted for Gore is going to vote for Bush this time. Most who voted for Nader in 2000 will vote Kerry in 2004.

These polls are simply to depress turnout and enthusiasm and/or justify a Diebold given Bush election "victory."

[Shopaholic]

11. CBS is saying that a poll is showing

that Kerry's overall negative numbers now are larger than his positives and that he's down 5 points behind * with women. Guess the SBV and the RNC did their damage.

[DarthDem]

14. LOL

The latter, about the women, is impossible. There's just no way.

[lancdem]

18. The ABC poll also has Kerry with a net negative rating

ouch

[izzie]

13. God help us all if these polls stay this way.

Is it not great that people will go for a likable man and not a man that can think?Like we are going to all have a beer with Bush and it would be more fun than with Kerry.

[bigwillq]

15. Attention

Let's not get too carried away with all this poll stuff.

We have two months to go and if we continue to work hard spreading our message on Kerry's behalf, we will get Kerry-Edwards into the White House.

I still believe no matter what polls, the media, etc. say that Kerry is running a strong, effective campaign.

His speech in Ohio, imo, was amazing just like the one in Nashville last week.

The race is just beginning and we still have the debates to go (this time, I feel Kerry will be the victor in those debates no matter how the media spins it).

[PCIntern]

17. Right you are on that

Living in Philly so long, over 50 years, you get used to people talking like this - doing great, you drop a game, and all of a sudden, we're losers. See any Repubs do that lately? did they do that during the so-called Kerry lead? Of course not, that 'lead' was just propped up so he would have something to lose - which he did, not that he actually lost it, but they snatched it from him.

It ain't over until it's over and even then it may not be. Don't assume on Election Night that just because Kerry wins the Electoral and popular vote that they're gonna let him waltz into the WH.

[bigwillq]

19. Well, I'm just going to remain confident

I'm sure the repukes will do all they can when Shrub loses the popular and electoral but I'm just waiting and hoping for cooler heads to prevail.

We need to start thinking and acting positively.
Our candidate is doing a really good job, we just need to stregthen our support of Kerry and get all this negative, poll-biting vibes out of our system.

[sonicx]

16. Kerry's behind, but read this

snip

The fact that underlying views have changed means they can change again. After the Democratic convention there were eight points more Democrats than Republicans among likely voters; today, there are six points more Republicans than Democrats. Party allegiance has been +3 or +4 Democratic in exit polls since 1988; Kerry would gain ground by moving the alignment back to its Election Day norm. But shifting party allegiance is not his only problem: He's losing 12 percent of Democrats to Bush, twice Bush's loss of Republicans to Kerry.

snip

codeword: more repubs sampled than dems. again.

[DarthDem]

20. 12% of Dems

. . . being lost my ass. Another screwed-up poll. Sheesh.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

21. Patience, screwy polls, give the news about AWOL time, then debates.

Have patience, and know that these polls at most reflect a small bounce for Bush, and do not match the Rasmussen daily or Zogby polls.

Give the news about Bush's failure to fulfill obligations some time to sink in. The news is getting good prominence. Should be able to carry it through the 9-11 hump.

Then there is the debate about debates, and the debates themselves yet to come. Bush is trying to chicken out of at least one, the town-hall meeting format where he might get off-script questions, the kind that make him petrified, the kind he is scared of.