Fox News Poll shows Bush 47%, Kerry 45%...

[vickie]

Thoughts of the Republican National Convention (search) appear to have faded as quickly as memories of Labor Day at the beach, as less than a week after the GOP gathering in New York City the latest FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows the presidential race in a dead heat.

Clearly President George W. Bush made gains in critical areas such as leadership and trustworthiness, but just days after his convention ended, Bush's edge over Democrat John Kerry (search) is razor thin.

Two months before Election Day, the poll finds Bush receives the backing of 47 percent of likely voters and Kerry 45 percent. When independent candidate Ralph Nader (search ) is included the results are essentially unchanged: Nader three percent, Bush 47 percent and Kerry 43 percent.

In the head-to-head matchup, Bush went from being one point behind Kerry before the convention to being two points ahead today. Bush's current level of support is his highest since late June, when he had a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage over Kerry among registered voters.

[BamaLefty]

1. Registered Voters

We have to get the vote out! If we don't we lose... it is as simple as that. African-American support will be crucial for hopes of a Kerry victory.

[bookman]

11. Yes...it's all about Turnout! n/t

[still_one]

2. Believe it or not the Fox dynamic poll is one of the most accurate

[sonicx]

3. it is and it's not cuz it is favorable to us...

they weighted this poll alot more accurately than the BS 'double digit leads' one.

[DarthDem]

4. Did They?

What are the internals? I'm looking . . . .

[sonicx]

6. it was on Fox's website, i had to scrub myself afterwards...

:) here you go

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/090904_poll.pdf

problem is, it says bush gets 94% repub vote and Kerry has 80% dem vote. I'm not sure if i believe that (actually i don't at all), but there they are.

[yankeedem]

7. Are they "registered dems"

They may be registered dems from way back who haven't voted for a democrat since 1980. There are a lot more registered Democrats than registered repukes, I think 60/40.

[sonicx]

8. that's my guess too

"zell miller" democrats. There are alot in the south i guess.

dems lead US party affiliation by about 3 or 4. the numbers are something like 34 dem/30 repub, i think.

[DarthDem]

10. I Don't Buy That Either

Meaning that this poll is actually more reflective of a Kerry LEAD.

Man, this is 2000 all over again. The only polls I trust at ALL are Rasmussen and Zogby, and even they have silly results, like Raz's NC daily tracker lead of 15 points for * and Zogby's lead of, whatever 10-11 points for * in OH.

Anyone remember that asinine Celinda Lake/Ed Goeas poll last time around? I can't remember the name of it, but it did nothing but piss everyone off (I was on Salon's Table Talk at the time), forecast a Shrub landslide, etc. It quickly died a horrible death after the (s)election.

[yankeedem]

5. All right, let's hit the media

Talking point-- Bush's fleeting "blip" from the RNC- down NINE points from last Saturday.

[DuaneBidoux]

9. They're doing it now to look better

Now that all the other polls are showing huge Bush leads they figure it is safe to stack the polls the other way to be able to downplay the charge that they are a wing of the White House