Let's Face It: KERRY is Behind (But We're Still Okay)

[liberalpragmatist]

It's clear that for a variety of factors, Kerry is running behind Bush, by anywhere from 2 or 3 points to nearly 10 (disregard the Time and Newsweek polls - the CBS and ABC/WP polls have some issues too, but seem more reputable).

I'm not really interested in dissecting all the things that may have gone wrong - it's a valuable thing for some political consultants and whatnot to do in order to make the ticket stronger, but at some point we simply have to stop going over what MIGHT have caused a drop or what MIGHT have caused a gain, and simply go on what we think will help now.

Now, I don't think DU's really guilty of this, but too many Democrats are getting needlessly worked up and starting to doubt Kerry's ability to win. Don't forget that Gore was down by double-digits in some polls just a couple of weeks before the election and came back to win. Kerry was polling in single digits just weeks before the Iowa Caucus, and even in Iowa, he was stuck in a distant third with between 10 and 15% of the vote. Carter was ahead of Reagan at this point (I believe) - actually, I could be wrong on the details of that, but I have read that Carter and Reagan traded the lead back and forth multiple times between the summer and the November election.

Kerry can win, and I believe he will. It doesn't mean we stay complacent - we have to get out there and really move, and it's entirely possible that B*sh will win (possibly even comfortably). but I have confidence in Kerry. When the going gets tough, Kerry knows to get his act together. It's happened countless times before, and he's not going to f*ck this up - this is what he's wanted for his whole life, he's been great the last few days, and I think he'll be excellent in the closing weeks of the campaign.

[autorank]

1. Excellent

Good point about Gore. Cahill's letter which appeared somewhere in DU pointed out that the average post convention bounce for incumbent winners was 26% (Carter had a 16% bounce in '80 and lost!). Bush is from 2-5% in all polls but Newsweek & Time (which Zogby and TruthIsAll demolished). Time to bear down and work/contribute. This pony's a winner.

[bigwillq]

2. My analysis

I think it is only natural for Kerry to be "behind"
Though I think he has a lot more support than people realize (don't always trust the polls and the media)

Getting back to my opening sentence

Despite the mess that Shrub has put our country in,

He is still the "incumbent" and a war president usually does have the support of most Americans.
Also, I feel some Americans are content with a familiar presence and do not like change, so they are sticking to what's familiar. Some also may say they "Do not know enough about Kerry still" and thus still giving their support to Shrub.

Kerry is indeed the underdog and it's Shrub's race to lose b/c of those above points which are clearly just my opinion.

But look what happened in 1992
Shrub 1 was the incumbent, a war president, a familiar face

And what happened in Nov? He lost.

History will repeat itself in 2004.

[Meshuga]

3. Great post!

I feel the same way. Sure I'd rather see Kerry in front in every poll but so far it is not the end of the world. I don't blame people for being worried but it could be a lot worse.

Kerry will win! People want Bush out!

[Penible]

4. Great point ...

about JFK coming from behind countless times. I want to make this point with folks who might be discouraged. I remember the Weld race ... and of course JFK overtaking Dean (my favorite) ... could you list the many other times he has done so (I am trying to remember!)? Personally, I am NOT doubting Kerry's ability to win, especially if we can hit home on his ability to get his act together.

[liberalpragmatist]

6. Apparently his Lt. Gov race was the same way

Also his '84 senate primary - he was behind in both and not the favored candidate. Yet he managed to win both times to the surprise of many.

He has a dogged determinism that serves him well. I'm not going to say it's inevitable that Kerry will win - all I'm saying is he has an excellent chance because he truly is a great closer. He really does become more focused and more on target and when he knows what he wants and especially if he suddenly is under pressure b/c he might lose it, he really goes for it, no holds barred.

His one political loss was his '72 house race. That was the only competitive race in which he was well ahead in the last few weeks but blew his lead.

With that taken into account, maybe it's a GOOD thing he's behind a few points. Actually, his friends have often said he's worst when he's somewhat but not firmly ahead - he has a weakness for complacency, but when he gets behind he suddenly kicks it into gear.

[Penible]

12. more good points ...

Actually, his friends have often said he's worst when he's somewhat but not firmly ahead - he has a weakness for complacency, but when he gets behind he suddenly kicks it into gear.

I think you have hit the nail. When JFK was ahead (small but consistent lead) it induced the weak complacency his friends talk about .... But his present (minor, if true) trailing in the polls can help him get his act together and suddenly kick it into gear.

[lancdem]

5. Great post

Bush is still in the middle of his bounce. It usually takes a few weeks for that to dissipate. And it does.

[In Truth We Trust]

7. With all due respect I disagree with your contention that Kerry

is behind. as I've said in the past * has alienated far more support since occupying the WH than he had prior. Remember as you rightly point out in your own post; Gore won!

But I do appreciate the general sentiment and positive outlook of your message.

[featherman]

8. Just keep it close

It still all about the Electoral College. Kerry just needs to keep it close in the national horse race polls. Average 3 or 4 national polls (from, say, Rasmussen, Zogby, La Times, Gallup, Newsweek). I figure anything within -3 points or better around 9/15 or so is a very good sign for Kerry. Kerry as a candidate, Democrat, and challenger is likely to close strong if history is any indication. Bush is unlikely to flip any Kerry state unless he starts pulling away to a +5 or more lead. Kerry is still working from a pretty solid base of 264 (the Gore states + NH). Right now his best chances for picking up another 5 EV's or more is from: NV, FL, CO, MO, OH, WV, AR, LA, VA, NC.

[PATRICK]

9. The Bush highwater mark

as far as actual campaigning goes. His fluff and fear fog can't last forever, especially under the UNDERRATED and dogged Z\Kerry assault.

Everything is as one would expect with the constant frustration that Kerry has yet to grind out outreach to present himself to the mass of the elctorate. polls and the media have been historically stupid in defining the moments to other comparable moments and especially about identiftying the uniqueness of each separate situation. In other words- a trend is what they say it is at the time no matter what a tiny bit of foresight or memory might help in dissipating misdirection or prejudice.

Bush is really being pumped up with hot air. Little of it is solid. Kerry has YET to build his lead and will not get- or need- the fluff that flatters and comforts us when it seems on our side.

It is only on our side with reluctance long after the actual grass roots fact. The Polls softness and volatility factor is never factored in. As far as the set in stone "closeness" of the polarized electorate, well there is a great national; need to crack that vener decisively if we are to produce a landslide.

I'm loving this. I want Bush brought down hard. Screw the "contest" sportcasters on major media myth machines. I want them forced into silence when the point is passed when Bush is poll toast and they again drop the word "lead" and "frontrunner" from their vocabulary entirely.

And I don't want to concede one shred of GOP voter fraud and disinformation anywhere. It seems to me this is the heart and core of the little weasel's confidence. If he wakes up one morning and realizes there will only a fair election he will be reaching for the coke or a pistol or both.

[PATRICK]

10. The Bush highwater mark

as far as actual campaigning goes. His fluff and fear fog can't last forever, especially under the UNDERRATED and dogged Kerry assault.

Everything is as one would expect with the constant frustration that Kerry has yet to grind out outreach to present himself to the mass of the elctorate. polls and the media have been historically stupid in defining the moments to other comparable moments and especially about identiftying the uniqueness of each separate situation. In other words- a trend is what they say it is at the time no matter what a tiny bit of foresight or memory might help in dissipating misdirection or prejudice.

Bush is really being pumped up with hot air. Little of it is solid. Kerry has YET to build his lead and will not get- or need- the fluff that flatters and comforts us when it seems on our side.

It is only on our side with reluctance long after the actual grass roots fact. The Polls softness and volatility factor is never factored in. As far as the set in stone "closeness" of the polarized electorate, well there is a great national need to crack that veneer decisively if we are to produce a landslide.

I'm loving this. I want Bush brought down hard. Screw the "contest" sportcasters on major media myth machines. I want them forced into silence when the point is passed when Bush is poll toast and they again drop the word "lead" and "frontrunner" from their vocabulary entirely.

And I don't want to concede one shred of GOP voter fraud and disinformation anywhere. It seems to me this is the heart and core of the little weasel's confidence. If he wakes up one morning and realizes there will only a fair election he will be reaching for the coke or a pistol or both.

(Apologies for the spellcheck not working)

[tedoll78]

14. You've typed my thoughts almost word-for-word!

I fully agree - Kerry seems to have an electoral vote floor of 264EVs. All he needs is 6 more, and there are many places he can look.

Many polls had Gore down by quite a margin on the eve of Election 2000, and look at what happened.. if we can keep this to a 3-point race, I'd be confident in predicting victory. Especially since undecideds will swing our way.

This is the week after Bush's convention. This is the best that he can expect. And we're still giving him a good run for his money in the Electoral College. For him, that's a big fat "DANGER" sign.

[delhurgo]

11. I think if Kerry comes back and wins, it'll be by about 1 or 2 points

and be similar to the Dewey defeats Truman election - it'll be one of the best political comebacks in history.

It's possible, but I wouldn't bet my money on it.

[flaminbats]

13. I'm used to this..

Democrats being unpopular is the norm down south. When at Pratt it's always nice to enjoy a vacation from southern hatred of Democrats.

Unfortunately this is not a fact Kerry can avoid and hope to win. The time for looking at red-blue states has past. Anyone who hopes to win this election or any other in the coming century needs to find where these legendary swing voters are. This means finding those red states which have elected top Democrats to statewide office since 9/11. That includes the Dakotas, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Kansas. This means that each of these states has a large base of voters which votes Republican for President and Democratic for statewide offices.

Perhaps Kerry cannot win in all of these states. But in those places where voters still split there tickets and the media is not completely nationalized, Kerry could have an outside chance of winning even when the odds are against him. All it takes are a few stops and ads to swing these critical votes, and suddenly you've changed the entire election.

[elperromagico]

15. The lead bounced back and forth in 2000 as well.

Gore opened up a 10 point lead on Bush during the "Debate Over the Debates" in September (IIRC). At various points, Bush had a substantial lead over Gore as well. Yet the election came out as a virtual tie; Gore won the popular vote, but it was a narrow win by any definition of the word.

This thing is far from done.

[OneBlueSky]

16. frankly, I don't believe he's behind at all . . .

I think there's a huge hidden Kerry vote out there that the polls aren't picking up because of their limitations . . . people with only cell phones, newly registered voters, energized inner city voters (egged on by the likes of Sean Combs and Andre 3000), senior citizens of fixed incomes, young people concerned about the draft, etc. . .

but that's okay . . . it's actually good for them to believe that Kerry's behind . . . might even keep them from having to orchestrate another 9/11 before the election . . .